Inferential permutation tests for maximum entropy models in ecology

Maximum entropy (maxent) models assign probabilities to states that (1) agree with measured macroscopic constraints on attributes of the states and (2) are otherwise maximally uninformative and are thus as close as possible to a specified prior distribution. Such models have recently become popular in ecology, but classical inferential statistical tests require assumptions of independence during the allocation of entities to states that are rarely fulfilled in ecology. This paper describes a new permutation test for such maxent models that is appropriate for very general prior distributions and for cases in which many states have zero abundance and that can be used to test for conditional relevance of subsets of constraints. Simulations show that the test gives correct probability estimates under the null hypothesis. Power under the alternative hypothesis depends primarily on the number and strength of the constraints and on the number of states in the model; the number of empty states has only a small effect on power. The test is illustrated using two empirical data sets to test the community assembly model of B. Shipley, D. Vile, and E. Garnier and the species abundance distribution models of S. Pueyo, F. He, and T. Zillio.     

Secondary sexual characters signal fighting ability and determine social rank in Alpine ibex (Capra ibex)

Social dominance is a fundamental aspect of male evolutionary ecology in polygynous mammals because it determines access to estrous females. As it is rarely possible to monitor marked individuals of known morphology, little is known about the determinants of male dominance. We studied the social structure of Alpine ibex males in Gran Paradiso National Park, Italy in 2003, 2006, and 2007. Dominance interactions produced a linear social hierarchy. In ibex males, body mass and horn length are key traits in male-male combat, and both increase with age. We explored the links between age, body mass, horn length, and social rank. Ibex males showed much age-independent phenotypic heterogeneity and rapidly growing males reached high rank at a younger age than slow-growing males. Because there is no trade-off between horn growth and longevity, fast-growing males may face weak potential costs of rapid growth and high fitness benefit of achieving high rank. Violent interactions were more likely to occur between males similar in both mass and horn length, independently of age. We suggest that only high-quality individuals can afford a strategy of rapid growth for both secondary sexual characters, and likely reap substantial fitness benefits.     

A uniform fish consumption advisory protocol for the Ohio River

ORSANCO and the six Ohio River main stem states have been working to align states' fish consumption advisories (FCAs) to enhance the value of advice issued to the public. To achieve this goal, ORSANCO worked closely with a panel consisting of state and USEPA representatives. The result of this effort is the Ohio River Fish Consumption Advisory Protocol (ORFCAP). The ORFCAP represents a single set of variables agreed upon by the panel that allows for a standardized protocol to create advisory thresholds to which states can defer to issue consumption advice for the Ohio River. The ORFCAP identifies ORSANCO as a clearinghouse for data which will be distributed to the panel for decision making. Other components include identifying primary contaminants of concern (PCBs and mercury) and dividing the river into four reporting units. The protocol was developed to issue FCAs for the protection of sensitive populations using five advisory groupings for PCBs and four for mercury. Specific variables used in the calculation of advisory thresholds such as health protection values, cooking reductions, average meal sizes, etc., were selected by the panel. Lastly, the protocol calls for FCA decisions to be based on analysis of the most recent 10?years of data for each species in each reporting unit to determine size class needs and advisory groupings. Upon pending implementation of the protocol by the main stem states, these decisions will be made annually through a series of discussions involving ORSANCO, the panel, and other appropriate state personnel.     

An equilibrium model for chloride removal from recycled cooling water using the ultra-high lime with aluminum process.

Removal of chloride from recycled cooling water is needed to reduce corrosion and prolong equipment life. Laboratory experiments have demonstrated that the ultra-high lime with aluminum (UHLA) process has the ability to achieve high chloride removal efficiency from recycled cooling water. In an effort to further understand the behavior of chloride in the UHLA process, a fundamental model of the chemical processes was developed. The purpose of this paper is to describe this equilibrium model and present values for solubility products of precipitated solids that have not been investigated previously. The model was based on PHREEQC and a new program called INVRS K was integrated with PHREEQC to calculate values of unknown or poorly defined equilibrium or kinetic constants using a Gauss-Newton nonlinear regression routine. Model predictions indicated that the results could be best described by assuming the formation of a solid solution of calcium chloroaluminate (Ca4Al2Cl2OH12), tricalcium hydroxyaluminate (Ca3Al2OH12), and tetracalcium hydroxyaluminate (Ca4Al2OH14).     

Inclusion of vegetable oils in Fenton's chemistry for remediation of PAH-contaminated soils

Pre-treatment with vegetable oils prior to treatment with Fenton's reagent led to increased oxidation by the latter of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a pair of model manufactured gas plant soils. This effect was frequently most pronounced in the cases of high-molecular-weight (HMW) PAH species, indicating a preferential "targeting" of oxidative equivalents toward these compounds. In both cases, addition of oils--either corn oil containing unsaturated lipids or palm kernal oil (PKO) comprised primarily of saturated fats--at the 5% dosage was required; supplementation with 1% oil apparently did not sufficiently facilitate PAH desorption and mass-transfer to have a notable effect on degradation efficiency. In PKO-supplemented reactions, replacement of H2O2 with calcium peroxide (CaO2) further increased the extent of PAH removal. Again, this was most pronounced in the cases of several HMW PAHs; among a suite of four 5- and 6-ring PAH (benzo[a]pyrene, dibenz[a, h]anthracene, benzo[g, h, i]perylene and indeno[c, d]pyrene), average removal efficiency increased from 5% in PKO-supplemented reactions in which H2O2 served as the oxidant, compared to 44% in CaO2-containing reactions. This last finding is consistent with other reports which have indicated that slower-release oxidants are better suited to degradation of contaminants which, despite vegetable oil treatment, remain soil-sorbed.     

Effects of Regional Reductions in Sulphur Deposition on the Chemical and Biological Recovery of Lakes within Killarney Park, Ontario, Canada

The lakes in KillarneyProvincial Park, located 40–60 km southwest ofSudbury, Ontario, were some of the first lakesin North America to be acidified by atmosphericpollutants. Acidification affected thousandsof fish and invertebrate populations in dozensof lakes. Since the 1970's, water quality hasimproved in response to atmospheric pollutionreductions and some lakes have alreadyrecovered to approximately their pre-industrialpH levels, as inferred from diatom microfossilsin lake sediments. Since the 1970's, fishspecies richness has not changed substantially,but zooplankton species richness has increasedin acidified lakes. The critical sulphur load,the amount of SO₂-derived acid depositionthat can occur while still maintaining suitable water quality, was estimated to beexceeded in 38% of the park area in 1997. Depending on which of four possible NorthAmerican emission control scenarios (CLR =currently legislated reduction; CLR + 25%; CLR+ 50%; CLR + 75%) is achieved by 2010, theprojected critical loads will be exceeded inabout 0-30% of the park area in the future. There are many factors that can affectbiological recovery rates of damaged lakes, butit is expected that biological recovery willlag considerably behind observed chemicalrecovery rates.     

MULTI-MEDIA CONCENTRATIONS OF HEAVY METALS AND MAJOR IONS FROM URBAN AND RURAL SITES IN NEW BRUNSWICK, CANADA

Concentrations of heavy metals and major ions were measured in precipitation, snowpack, garden soils and vegetables from urban and rural sites in New Brunswick in Atlantic Canada. Atmospheric loading of mercury, lead, cadmium, arsenic, strontium, and vanadium need further assessment. Vanadium concentrations in precipitation, snowpack, soils and vegetables showed an urban influence. Vanadium concentrations in the snowpack ranged between <2.0 ppb at 50 kilometers from the city center to 31.4 ppb in the city. Concentrations of all heavy metals in urban soils were less than CCME remediation guidelines but selected metals exceeded the assessment benchmark non-regulatory guidelines. Major ions were consistently higher in event precipitation than the snowpack. The order of ion elution from the snowpack was NO3 > SO4 > NH4 > H > Mg > Cl > Na > K. Hydrogen ion equivalents were highest in the snowpack and precipitation from urban samples. Mean hydrogen ion concentrations ranged from 11 to 22 eq L-1 in the snowpack compared with 18 to 41 eq L-1 in event precipitation.