KALMAN FILTER ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF DAILY STREAM FLOWS: II. APPLICATION TO THE POTOMAC RIVER1

Results are reported from an application of the state space formulation and the Kalman filter to real-time forecasting of daily river flows. It is shown that the application of filtering techniques improves the overall forecasting performance of the model. As is true for most hydrologic systems, the model is not completely known. Therefore, the procedures pertaining to on-line parameter and noise statistics estimation, as presented in the first paper, are implemented. The example in this paper shows that these techniques also perform satisfactorily when applied to a real-world situation.     

A new structure-affinity relationship for TCDD receptor binding

We have investigated the capacity of various indoles to inhibit specific binding of [1,6-³H]2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo- -dioxin ([³H]TCDD) in rat liver cytosol, as analyzed by electrofocusing in polyacrylamide gels. Of these indoles, indolo[3,2- ]carbazole was the most active. The IC₅₀ value for TCDD receptor binding of indolo[3,2- ]carbazole as well as for 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzofuran was 3.6 nM. We have also studied the influence on binding exerted by introduction of some substituents on indolo[3,2- ]carbazole. Substitution with methyl groups at the 5 and 11 positions resulted in an increased affinity (IC₅₀ 1.2 nM) for the TCDD receptor as compared to the parent compound. Computer-supported molecular structure studies indicated that if the van der Waals radii of atoms are included, a rectangle of 6.8 × 13.7 Å may account for the binding of high-affinity ligands to the TCDD receptor.     

Margins of agricultural fields as habitats for pollinating insects

The occurrence of pollinating insects in field margins with different vegetation was studied in field experiments. Some margins were widened and vegetation was established by sowing of leguminous plants or was allowed to invade spontaneously. The communities of pollinating insects in reclaimed field margins were compared with those of a margin with a naturally diverse flora and an adjacent pasture. A beehive was placed in the area and the collection of pollen by the honey-bees was followed over the season in order to compare the bees' preferences with the supply of flowering plants available in the different experimental field margins. The sown leguminous plants were very attractive to most insect groups, especially bees and bumble-bees, and their pollen constituted an important part of the bees' total catch. The vegetation established by spontaneous succession especially attracted Syrphidae and other groups of Diptera. Butterflies were found in all vegetation types. It is concluded that small areas with flowering plants can give highly positive effects. The key question is how to avoid weed problems and keep the most attractive plant species with a minimum of cost and effort.     

Biodegradation of 4-nonylphenol in seawater and sediment

Biodegradation of 14C-labelled nonylphenol at the concentration 11 microg litre (-1) in seawater has been estimated by collection and quantification of the formed labelled carbon dioxide. Initially degradation was very slow but when the microorganisms had become adapted, after four weeks at 11 degrees C, the degradation rate increased rapidly and after 58 days about 50% of 14C from NP was found in the CO2 fraction. In the presence of sediment the initial degradation rate was high and did not increase after longer incubation. Lack of oxygen reduced the degradation rate by half in the presence of sediment.     

Alcohol problems among Swedish drunk drivers: differences related to mode of detection and geographical region

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of alcohol problems in a representative sample of Swedish drivers suspected of drunk driving in comparison with control drivers and the general Swedish population in relation to mode and time of detection. Is the time of day or night or the detection mode important for the prevalence of alcohol problems and which are the best predictors for identifying alcohol problems among DUI offenders? METHODS: Two thousand and one hundred drivers (169 females) suspected of DUI offence during 1997-2001 who agreed to respond to the AUDIT questionnaire (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) and 785 control drivers (266 females) not suspected of DUI recruited at general traffic controls were investigated. RESULTS: Both mode and time of detection were found to be important. The greatest impact on the prevalence of alcohol problems emanated from the predictors in the following order: high BAC; unlicensed driving; detection hours between 12.00 and 18.00, and age under 26 years. Age over 55 years and detection in general traffic controls were the two strongest factors negatively correlated to alcohol problems prevalence. The differences between regions with regard to alcohol problems incidence could only partly be explained by police routines and resources. CONCLUSIONS: Mode and time of detection affect the prevalence of DUI offenders with alcohol problems, and to a lesser degree also BAC level. Both the detection mode and the time of detection are significant for the proportion of identified DUIs with alcohol problems. Because the majority of committed DUI offenses are never identified, it is important to optimize the detection strategies of the police with the purpose of minimizing public damage and expenses.     

Seasonal ontogenetic colour plasticity in the adult striated shieldbug <Emphasis Type="Italic">Graphosoma lineatum</Emphasis> (Heteroptera) and its effect on detectability

Camouflage and warning colouration are two important forms of protective colouration. We have studied the detectability of two seasonal colourations in the aposematic striated shieldbug, Graphosoma lineatum. The typical colouration of this insect is red and black, which is also the colouration of the reproductive post-hibernation bugs in our study area in south central Sweden. However, the majority of newly eclosed adults in late summer exhibit a ‘pale’ (light brownish, non-red) and black striation, and these bugs appear quite cryptic to the human eye when sitting on the dried stems and umbels of their host plants. In experiments using photographs of prey in the late-summer habitat shown on a computer screen, we compared the time to detection by human subjects of bugs, which had been manipulated to show either of the two typical seasonal colourations. Time to detection was significantly longer for the pale and black than for the red-and-black striation in images with the bug photographed at two different distances. This indicates that the pale pre-hibernation striation may have a cryptic function. In a separate experiment, we tested detectability of striated and non-striated manipulations of bug pre-hibernation colouration against the late-summer background, and found that time to detection was significantly longer for the striated bugs. We discuss potential functional explanations for the seasonal ontogenetic colour plasticity and suggest that the epidermal pale colour in the late summer provides a benefit of increased camouflage.     

An overview of commercially used brominated flame retardants,their applications,their use patterns in different countries/regions and possible modes of release

Brominated flame retardants (BFRs) are used in a variety of consumer products and several of those are produced in large quantities. These compounds have been detected in environmental samples, which can be attributed to the anthropogenic uses of these compounds. Brominated flame retardants are produced via direct bromination of organic molecules or via addition of bromine to alkenes; hence, an overview of the production and usage of bromine over the past three decades is covered. Production, application, and environmental occurrence of high production brominated flame retardants including Tetrabromobisphenol A, polybrominated biphenyls, Penta-, Octa-, Deca-brominated diphenyl ether (oxide) formulation and hexabromocyclododecane are discussed.     

Sodium borohydride reduction of individual polybrominated diphenyl ethers

Many chemicals in use today lack appropriate documentation on their environmental properties, fate, and effects. To counteract this lack of documentation it is vital to thoroughly investigate a compound’s fate in the environment before it comes into use. The present study is describing a novel method for assessing the reduction potential of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), as a part of a project aimed to create an experimental model for determination of chemical persistence. The reductive transformation of 15 PBDE congeners using sodium borohydride was determined. Pseudo-first-order reaction rate constants of the transformations were determined by monitoring the disappearance of the investigated congeners. The reductions lead primarily to formation of lower brominated PBDEs. Each PBDE congener was tested in a total of ten replicates which showed a relative standard deviation of 31% or less. The decaBDE, BDE-209 was approximately 3 times as prone to reductive transformation as BDE-207. The three nonaBDEs, BDE-206, BDE-207, and BDE-208, showed similar reductive potential. The reactivity of the tested octaBDEs was quite variable, from 5% to 24% of the reactivity of BDE-209 for BDE-196 and BDE-198, respectively. The heptaBDEs studied were in the range of the less reactive octaBDEs, except for BDE-181 which was as high as 13% of the reactivity of BDE-209. The results presented give a method for measuring the propensity of PBDEs, and possibly similar compounds, to undergo reductions. They indicate a potential route to a vital piece of information in the assessment of environmental persistence of chemicals.     

A standardized method for assessment of oxidative transformations of brominated phenols in water

The term persistence has been used to confusion since it is used as a conceptual parameter without a uniform definition. Work is therefore being done in order to unite ideas and describe persistence based on the chemical reactivity and chemico-physical properties of compounds via investigation of the main degradation pathways in the environment; photolysis, hydrolysis-substitution-elimination (hse), oxidation, reduction and radical reactions. The present work is focused on developing a method to determine oxidative degradation rates of chemicals and thereby measurement of their susceptibility to undergo oxidation reactions. The method based on potassium permanganate works well for water soluble compounds and is easy, robust, inexpensive and reproducible. By using the method and varying the analysed substances, the degradation rates for brominated phenols, two chlorinated phenols and high volume production compounds such as tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA), tetrachlorobisphenol A (TCBPA) and bisphenol A (BPA) have been determined at pH 7.6+/-0.2. The reaction rates of the two halogenated BPA's are particularly fast, giving half-lives in seconds. The other test compounds have slower reaction rates but easily measured under the reaction conditions applied. The reactions are temperature dependent. There is evidence that pK(a) and the substitution pattern of the halogens affects the rate of the reactions. The method is robust and applicable for reaction rate constant measurements of present and potential future environmental contaminants.     

Temporal trend of bis(4-chlorophenyl) sulfone, methylsulfonyl-DDE and -PCBs in Baltic guillemot (Uria aalge) egg 1971-2001--a comparison to 4,4'-DDE and PCB trends

The dynamics of organohalogen contaminants and their metabolites are best studied over time by analysis of biota at high trophic levels. In this study, time trends, 1971-2001, of bis(4-chlorophenyl) sulfone (BCPS) and of methylsulfonyl-substituted metabolites of PCBs and 4,4'-DDE, were investigated in eggs of guillemot (Uria aalge) hatching in the Baltic Proper. Temporal trends of PCBs, trans-nonachlor, beta-HCH, 4,4'-DDT, and 4,4'-DDE were also assessed. Tris(4-chlorophenyl) methane (TCPMe), a 4,4'-DDT by-product, was detected in the eggs. The concentration of BCPS ranged between 2.6-0.76 microg/g on a lipid weight basis over the three decades and showed a significant 1.6% annual decrease. Three metabolites of PCBs, i.e. 3'-MeSO2-CB101, 4'-MeSO2-CB101 and 4-MeSO2-CB149, were quantified in all samples over time and showed an annual decrease of approximately 3% compared to MeSO2-DDE with a decrease of 8.9%. The methylsulfonyl-PCB and -DDE metabolites are eliminated more slowly than the persistent PCB congeners and 4,4'-DDE. Trans-nonachlor decreases by 16% compared to 19% and 9% for 4,4'-DDT and beta-HCH, respectively. The concentration of TCPMe in guillemot decreased by 8.2% per year. A linear relationship was found between TCPMe and 4,4'-DDE concentrations which supports the theory that TCPMe has an origin as a contaminant in commercial 4,4'-DDT products. The very slow decrease in BCPS concentrations is notable and remains to be explained. BCPS is still present at rather high concentrations in the guillemot eggs. The enantiomeric fraction varied between 0.27 and 0.67 which indicates less of a specific retention of the chiral MeSO2-PCBs in guillemot eggs than in grey seal tissues, for example. Independent of meta- or para-substitution of the sulfone group, the most accumulative atropisomer of each of four MeSO2-PCB pairs has been assigned an absolute R structure.