Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

Concentrations of dioxin-like PCB congeners in unweathered Aroclors by HRGC/HRMS using EPA Method 1668A

We have determined the congener compositions of nine commercial Aroclor products of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to the sub-part-per-million level using high-resolution gas chromatography combined with high-resolution mass spectrometry according to US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Method 1668A. These Aroclor composition data should allow improved characterization and risk assessment of PCB contamination at hazardous waste sites, particularly for dioxin-like PCB congeners. By combining the data on the concentrations of each dioxin-like congener with its World Health Organization toxicity equivalency factor, we have established dioxin toxic equivalent concentrations for each pure Aroclor product.     

Monitoring trichloroethene remediation at an iron permeable reactive barrier using stable carbon isotopic analysis

Stable carbon isotopic analysis, in combination with compositional analysis, was used to evaluate the performance of an iron permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for the remediation of ground water contaminated with trichloroethene (TCE) at Spill Site 7 (SS7), F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming. Compositional data indicated that although the PRB appeared to be reducing TCE to concentrations below treatment goals within and immediately downgradient of the PRB, concentrations remained higher than expected at wells further downgradient (i.e. >9 m) of the PRB. At two wells downgradient of the PRB, TCE concentrations were comparable to upgradient values, and delta13C values of TCE at these wells were not significantly different than upgradient values. Since the process of sorption/desorption does not significantly fractionate carbon isotope values, this suggests that the TCE observed at these wells is desorbing from local aquifer materials and was present before the PRB was installed. In contrast, three other downgradient wells show significantly more enriched delta13C values compared to the upgradient mean. In addition, delta13C values for the degradation products of TCE, cis-dichloroethene and vinyl chloride, show fractionation patterns expected for the products of the reductive dechlorination of TCE. Since concentrations of both TCE and degradation products drop to below detection limit in wells within the PRB and directly below it, these downgradient chlorinated hydrocarbon concentrations are attributed to desorption from local aquifer material. The carbon isotope values indicate that this dissolved contaminant is subject to local degradation, likely due to in situ microbial activity.     

Threats to Imperiled Freshwater Fauna

Threats to imperiled freshwater fauna in the U.S. were assessed through an experts survey addressing anthropogenic stressors and their sources. Specifically, causes of historic declines and current limits to recovery were identified for 135 imperiled freshwater species of fishes, crayfishes, dragonflies and damselflies, mussels, and amphibians. The survey was designed to identify threats with sufficient specificity to inform resource managers and regulators faced with translating information about predominant biological threats into specific, responsive actions. The findings point to altered sediment loads and nutrient inputs from agricultural nonpoint pollution; interference from exotic species; and altered hydrologic regimes associated with impoundment operations as the three leading threats nationwide, accompanied by many lesser but still significant threats. Variations in threats among regions and among taxa were also evident. Eastern species are most commonly affected by altered sediment loads from agricultural activities, whereas exotic species, habitat removal/damage, and altered hydrologic regimes predominate in the West. Altered sediment loading from agricultural activities and exotic species are dominant problems for both eastern mussels and fishes. However, eastern fishes also appear to be suffering from municipal nonpoint pollution (nutrients and sediments), whereas eastern mussels appear to be more severely affected by altered nutrient impacts from hydroelectric impoundments and agricultural runoff. Our findings suggest that control of nonpoint source pollution associated with agriculture activities should be a very high priority for agricultural producers and governmental support programs. Additonally, the large number of hydropower dams in the U.S. subject to federal re-licensing in coming years suggests a significant opportunity to restore natural hydrologic regimes in the affected rivers.     

Instructions for Authors

Instructions for Authors

Instructions for Authors     

Health risk assessment for arsenic contaminated soil

This paper describes risk assessment methods for two chronic exposure pathways involving arsenic contaminated soil, namely inhalation of fugitive dust emissions over a lifetime, and inadvertent soil/house dust ingestion. The endpoint in the first case is assumed to be lung cancer and in the second case skin cancer. In order to estimate exposures, inhalation rates and soil/dust ingestion rates are estimated for different age groups; indoor/outdoor time budgets for different age groups are developed; and indoor surface dust and air arsenic concentrations are estimated based on outdoor concentration measurements. Differences observed in indoor/outdoor ratios and arsenic containing dust particle size among different types of communities are noted, as well as possible relationship of particle size to bioavailability. Calculations of risk are presented using cancer potency factors developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and uncertainties in these toxicity estimates are described based on: (1) evidence that arsenic may be neither a cancer initiator nor promotor, but may act instead as a late stage carcinogen and (2) evidence that the arsenic dose-response relationship for ingestion may be nonlinear at low doses due to increasing methylation of inorganic arsenic. The first of these considerations influences the relative importance ascribed to arsenic doses in different age groups. The latter consideration indicates that the risk estimates described here are probably very conservative.     

Synergistic interactions between chemical alarm cues and the presence of conspecific and heterospecific fish shoals

Chemical and visual sources of information are used by aquatic prey during risk assessment. Here, we test the behavioral response of littoral prey fish to combinations of chemical alarm cues (skin extract) and the visual presence of a fish shoal. We scented minnow traps with either alarm cues or water (control) placed inside the trap, a jar that contained either a fish shoal or nothing (control), and recorded the number and species of fish captured. We predicted that chemical alarm cues would reduce the number of fish captured and that a fish shoal would increase the number of fish captured. The predicted effect of chemical and visual cues combined depended on the nature of the interaction. We found that the lowest catch rate was for the combination of alarm cue + no shoal, but the highest catch rate occurred for the combination of alarm cue + shoal. Fish shoal + water had the second highest catch rate and no shoal + water had the second lowest catch rate. We conclude that chemical alarm cues induce area avoidance in the absence of a shoal, but a strong behavioral proclivity to increase shoal cohesion in the presence of a shoal. The presence of a shoal in the traps induced alarmed fish to shoal with them and thus, enter the traps. This occurred even though traps were the source of the alarm cue.Communicated by A. Mathis     

Effect of freezing on photosynthesis of intertidal macroalgae: relative tolerance of Chondrus crispus and Mastocarpus stellatus (Rhodophyta)

The effect of freezing on photosynthetic metabolism was studied in the red algae, Chondrus crispus and Mastocarpus stellatus. Plants of both species were collected from the intertidal at Chamberlain or Kresge Point, Maine, USA (43°56N, 69°54W) between February and March 1987. Photosynthetic rates were measured immediately after freezing at-20°C and following recovery periods in seawater. Photosynthesis in C. crispus declined rapidly following freezing, falling to 70% of control values within 1 h and 30% after 3 h exposure. Minimum photosynthetic rates (7 to 9% of controls) occurred following freezing exposures of 12 h or more. Full photosynthetic recovery in C. crispus after 3 h at-20°C required 48 h. Photosynthesis in C. crispus did not fully recover in plants frozen for 6 h or more. In contrast, photosynthesis in M. stellatus was relatively unaffected by freezing exposures of <12 h. Twelve hours or more at-20°C reduced photosynthesis to 55% of controls. Photosynthesis in M. stellatus fully recovered from 24 h at-20°C within 24 h. In both species the reduction of photosynthesis by freezing was associated with damage to the plasma membrane and reduced efficiency of energy transfer from phycobilisomes to chlorophyll a, but did not appear to involve ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase oxygenase activity. The freezing tolerance of C. crispus and M. stellatus positively correlates with their respective intertidal distributions, suggesting that freezing may be involved in controlling the distributions of these species on the shore.     

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters.

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks.