Revised fire consequence models for offshore quantitative risk assessment

Offshore oil and gas platforms are well known for their compact geometry, high degree of congestion, limited ventilation and difficult escape routes. A small mishap under such conditions can quickly escalate into a catastrophe. Among all the accidental process-related events occurring offshore, fire is the most frequently reported. It is, therefore, necessary to study the behavior of fires and quantity the hazards posed by them in order to complete a detailed quantitative risk assessment. While there are many consequence models available to predict fire hazards-varying from point source models to highly complex computational fluid dynamic models—only a few have been validated for the unique conditions found offshore.

In this paper, we have considered fire consequence modeling as a suite of sub-models such as individual fire models, radiation model, overpressure model, smoke and toxicity models and human impact models. This comprehensive suite of models was then revised by making the following modifications: (i) fire models: existing fire models have been reviewed and the ones most suitable for offshore conditions were selected; (ii) overpressure impact model: a model has been developed to quantify the overpressure effects from fires to investigate the possible damage from the hot combustion gases released in highly confined compartments; (iii) radiation model: instead of a point/area model, a multipoint grid-based model has been adopted for better modeling and analysis of radiation heat flux consequences. A comparison of the performance of the revised models with the ones used in a commercial software package for offshore risk assessment was also carried out and is discussed in the paper.     

WIDTH OF STREAMS AND RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO VEGETATION,BANK MATERIAL,AND OTHER FACTORS1

ABSTRACT: An extensive group of datasets was analyzed to examine factors affecting widths of streams and rivers. Results indicate that vegetative controls on channel size are scale dependent. In channels with watersheds greater than 10 to 100 km², widths are narrower in channels with thick woody bank vegetation than in grass lined or nonforested banks. The converse is true in smaller streams apparently due to interactions between woody debris, shading, understory vegetation, rooting characteristics, and channel size. A tree based statistical method (regression tree) is introduced and tested as a tool for identifying thresholds of response and interpreting interactions between variables. The implications of scale dependent controls on channel width are discussed in the context of stable channel design methods and development of regional hydraulic geometry curves.     

Metals in the soil of urban cemeteries in Carazinho (South Brazil) in view of the increase in deaths from COVID-19: projects for cemeteries to mitigate environmental impacts

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The increasing mortality of COVID-19 can aggravate soil contamination by metals, harmful to the health of the population, requiring new projects for...     

Personality of young drivers in Oman: Relationship to risky driving behaviors and crash involvement among Sultan Qaboos University students

Objective: Drivers’ behaviors such as violations and errors have been demonstrated to predict crash involvement among young Omani drivers. However, there is a dearth of studies linking risky driving behaviors to the personality of young drivers. The aim of the present study was to assess such traits within a sample of young Omani drivers (as measured through the behavioral inhibition system [BIS] and the behavioral activation system [BAS]) and determine links with aberrant driving behaviors and self-reported crash involvement.

Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the Sultan Qaboos University that targeted all licensed Omani's undergraduate students. A total of 529 randomly selected students completed the self-reported questionnaire that included an assessment of driving behaviors (e.g., Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, DBQ) as well as the BIS/BAS measures.

Results: A total of 237 participants (44.8%) reported involvement in at least one crash since being licensed. Young drivers with lower BIS–Anxiety scores and higher BAS–Fun Seeking tendencies as well as male drivers were more likely to report driving violations. Statistically significant gender differences were observed on all BIS and BAS subscales (except for BAS–Fun) and the DBQ subscales, because males reported higher trait scores. Though personality traits were related to aberrant driving behaviors at the bivariate level, the constructs were not predictive of engaging in violations or errors. Furthermore, consistent with previous research, a supplementary multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only driving experience was predictive of crash involvement.

Conclusions: The findings highlight that though personality traits influence self-reported driving styles (and differ between the genders), the relationship with crash involvement is not as clear. This article further outlines the key findings of the study in regards to understanding core psychological constructs that increase crash risk.     

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.     

Use of 210Pb and 137Cs to simultaneously constrain ages and sources of post-dam sediments in the Cordeaux reservoir, Sydney, Australia

Environmental radionuclides can be employed as tracers of sediment movement and delivery to water bodies such as lakes and reservoirs. The chronologies of sediments that have accumulated in the Cordeaux reservoir in Sydney, Australia, were determined by the rate of change of (210)Pb(ex) with depth and indicate slow accretion in the reservoir. The ratio of enrichment of radionuclides in sediment cores to (210)Pb(ex) and (137)Cs concentrations in a reference soil sample within the Cordeaux catchment indicates that the dominant source of sediment in the Cordeaux reservoir is surface erosion (detachment and removal of sediment at depths less than 30 cm). However, in the Kembla Creek arm of the reservoir a mixture of sources was detected and includes sheet and rill erosion together with sub-soil contributions. Implications for the utility of these radionuclide sedimentation assessments, especially where samples are limited, are that well-constrained chronologies and sources of soil erosion are facilitated.     

Hermetic joining of 316L stainless steel using a patterned nickel nanoparticle interlayer

This paper evaluates the use of a nickel nanoparticle (NiNP) interlayer for making hermetic joints in 316L stainless steel substrates via diffusion brazing. Different NiNP inks were prepared using commercial nanopowder (～9 nm) and in-house synthesized nanoparticles. Syringe pump deposition of ～9 nm NiNP ink and diffusion brazing at 900 °C for 30 min under 2 MPa resulted in a hermetic joint up to the tested pressure of 70 psi. In-house synthesis of NiNPs was carried out in ethylene glycol by the reduction of NiCl₂·6H₂O in the presence of hydrazine (N₂H₄) as a reducing agent. X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) results confirm the presence of pure fcc-Ni with an average particle size of 5.4 ± 0.9 nm. An as-synthesized suspension of NiNPs was patterned onto 316L stainless steel laminae via automated dispensing to a thickness of ～3 μm and bonded at 800 °C for 30 min at a pressure of 2 MPa. The diffusion-brazed test article was also found to be hermetic up to 70 psi. An examination of the bond line using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) showed good uniformity and continuity.