Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Handling data uncertainties in event tree analysis

Event tree analysis (ETA) is an established risk analysis technique to assess likelihood (in a probabilistic context) of an accident. The objective data available to estimate the likelihood is often missing (or sparse), and even if available, is subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision (vagueness). Without addressing incompleteness and imprecision in the available data, ETA and subsequent risk analysis give a false impression of precision and correctness that undermines the overall credibility of the process. This paper explores two approaches to address data uncertainties, namely, fuzzy sets and evidence theory, and compares the results with Monte Carlo simulations. A fuzzy-based approach is used for handling imprecision and subjectivity, whereas evidence theory is used for handling inconsistent, incomplete and conflicting data. Application of these approaches in ETA is demonstrated using the example of an LPG release near a processing facility.     

高含硫气井分户报警技术研究

设计并介绍分户报警与短信群发结合的报警方式,包括系统采用的布局方法、方案总体设计、整体结构、信息传输网络设计;提出分户报警的新报警策略,并给出分户报警的区域划分方法以及划分的理由和依据。在硬件方面,重点介绍分户警铃的方案,其中包括的两个重要组成部分:无线应急广播发射中心和无线应急广播接收设备;提出采用可寻址智能无线广播的新的技术方法,同时给出建议的设备,总结并分析分户报警系统的功能和特点。通过该警报系统的采用,能大大提高警报通知效率,节省疏散所需的时间。     

5—(4—磺酸基苯偶氮)8—(2,4—二硝基苯氨基)喹啉测定食品中铜的研究应用

在弱碱性介质中 ,5— (4—磺酸基苯偶氮 ) 8— (2 ,4—二硝基苯氨基 )喹啉 (SPDNPAQ)与铜反应生成 2∶ 1紫红色络合物 ,体系 λmax=56 0 nm,ε=1.2 3× 10 5L· mol-1· cm-1。铜含量在 0～ 0 .4 mg/ L内符合比耳定律 ,方法用于一些生物样品和水样中铜的测定。     

Impacts of groundwater metal loads from bedrock fractures on water quality of a mountain stream

Acid mine drainage and metal loads from hardrock mines to surface waters is a significant problem in the western USA and many parts of the world. Mines often occur in mountain environments with fractured bedrock aquifers that serve as pathways for metals transport to streams. This study evaluates impacts from current and potential future groundwater metal (Cd, Cu, and Zn) loads from fractures underlying the Gilt Edge Mine, South Dakota, on concentrations in Strawberry Creek using existing flow and water quality data and simple mixing/dilution mass balance models. Results showed that metal loads from bedrock fractures to the creek currently contribute <1% of total loads. Even if background water quality is achieved upstream in Strawberry Creek, fracture metal loads would be <5%. Fracture loads could increase substantially and cause stream water quality standards exceedances once groundwater with elevated metals concentrations in the aquifer matrix migrates to the fractures and discharges to the stream. Potential future metal loads from an upstream fracture would contribute a small proportion of the total load relative to current loads in the stream. Cd has the highest stream concentrations relative to standards. Even if all stream water was treated to remove 90% of the Cd, the standard would still not be achieved. At a fracture farther downstream, the Cd standard can only be met if the upstream water is treated achieving a 90% reduction in Cd concentrations and the median stream flow is maintained.     

Mathematical models for accurate prediction of atmospheric visibility with particular reference to the seasonal and environmental patterns in Hong Kong

Atmospheric visibility impairment has gained increasing concern as it is associated with the existence of a number of aerosols as well as common air pollutants and produces unfavorable conditions for observation, dispersion, and transportation. This study analyzed the atmospheric visibility data measured in urban and suburban Hong Kong (two selected stations) with respect to time-matched mass concentrations of common air pollutants including nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), nitrogen monoxide (NO), respirable suspended particulates (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), carbon monoxide (CO), and meteorological parameters including air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. No significant difference in atmospheric visibility was reported between the two measurement locations (p > or = 0.6, t test); and good atmospheric visibility was observed more frequently in summer and autumn than in winter and spring (p < 0.01, t test). It was also found that atmospheric visibility increased with temperature but decreased with the concentrations of SO(2), CO, PM(10), NO, and NO(2). The results showed that atmospheric visibility was season dependent and would have significant correlations with temperature, the mass concentrations of PM(10) and NO(2), and the air pollution index API (correlation coefficients mid R: R mid R: > or = 0.7, p < or = 0.0001, t test). Mathematical expressions catering to the seasonal variations of atmospheric visibility were thus proposed. By comparison, the proposed visibility prediction models were more accurate than some existing regional models. In addition to improving visibility prediction accuracy, this study would be useful for understanding the context of low atmospheric visibility, exploring possible remedial measures, and evaluating the impact of air pollution and atmospheric visibility impairment in this region.     

Pilot study of the polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans level in agricultural soil in Shanghai, China

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) were analyzed in agricultural soil samples from Shanghai to determine levels and to identify possible dioxin sources. The dioxin level was measured by an enzyme immunoassay method, US EPA 4025 (modified), which provides results as 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) equivalents. The Method 4025m results obtained from 60 soil samples displayed a normal distribution, ranging from 2.8 to 23.4 pg/g 2378-TCDD-equvalents, with an average of 11.0 pg/g. The result also revealed a similar PCDD/Fs concentration among crop usage patterns, but differences by geographic region, low in the southwest of Shanghai and considerably higher in the northwest region. In contrast, the dioxin concentrations on Chongming Island were fairly homogeneous, with a range 10–15 pg/g. This immunoassay method is an effective high throughput screening tool which helps to minimize the need for more expensive analyses.     

Monitoring and assessing variation of sewage quality and microbial functional groups in a trunk sewer line

In this study, the variation of sewage quality was investigated and the active fraction of different microbial functional groups in biofilm was quantified in a 5.6-km trunk sewer line. The sewage quality including suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand, total chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, and nitrate nitrogen were measured and compared with the values in literatures. The results indicated that since the wastewater treatment plant was not operated at its full capacity, the concentrations of different compounds were lower compared with the values in literatures. The values of heterotrophic growth rate constant lay between 5.6 and 8.6 day^???1. Its average value was 7.7 day^???1. The values of heterotrophic lysis rate constant lay between 0.2 and 0.4 day^???1. The active heterotrophic biomass in biofilm varied from 240 to 800 mg COD m^???2 and average value was 497 mg COD m^???2. The biofilm mass varied from 880 to 1,080 mg m^???2. The percentage of heterotroph to biofilm mass fall within the range of 24.0–90.9% and average value was 52.9%. In the oxygen uptake rate batch tests, the biomass, growth rate constant, and lysis rate constant of autotroph could not be determined because the fraction of autotroph in biofilm was relatively few. It revealed that the degradation of organic matters, nitrification, and denitrification occurred in the trunk sewer line. But the results indicate that the condition seem favorable for nitrification.     

Reevaluation of ENCORE: support for the eutrophication threshold model for coral reefs

The results from the multimillion dollar Enrichment of Nutrients on Coral Reefs Experiment (ENCORE) on One Tree Island Reef (OTIR) suggest that increased nutrient loads to coral reefs will have little or no effect on the algal growth rates and, hence, on the associated effects that increased algal growth might have on the functioning and stability of coral reefs. However, a comparison of the concentrations of nutrients within the OTIR lagoon with the proposed nutrient threshold concentrations (NTC) for coral reefs suggests that all sites, including the control sites, were saturated with nutrients during ENCORE, and, hence, one would not expect to get any differences between treatments in the algal-growth related measurements. Thus, ENCORE results provide strong support for the proposed NTCs and support the ecological principle that algal productivity and, consequently, the functioning of coral reefs are sensitive to small changes in the background concentrations of nutrients. The principal conclusion of ENCORE, namely that the addition of nutrients did not cause the "pristine" OTIR to convert from coral communities to algal dominated reefs, is contrary to the fact that there was prolific macroalgal growth on the walls and crests of the experimental microatolls by the end of ENCORE.