Evaluating Causes of Population Change in North American Insectivorous Songbirds

Although the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is a principal source of information regarding populations of most North American bird species, many features of the survey complicate analysis of population change. Correlation studies based on BBS data cannot be used to define cause and effect relationships unambiguously. Recently, Böhning-Gaese et al. (1993) presented an analysis of population trends in insectivorous songbirds using data from the BBS. They concluded that predation has played an important role in influencing population trends. We review aspects of the analysis methods for estimating population trends (e.g., observer effects, data subset) and for associating mean trends with species attributes (e.g., confounding of attributes). Using alternative analyses of the same BBS data, we demonstrate that the evidence that predation is associated with population declines is weaker than they suggested. Based on our analyses the only factor among those tested that was consistently associated with population trends was migration status (short-distance migrant/resident versus long-distance migrant) during the period 1978–1987. Also, we present evidence that the harsh winters of the mid-1970s severely depressed populations of short-distance migrant species and may have been responsible for the observed associations between migration status and population trends.     

Optimal pollution control with a nonconstant exponential rate of decay

This paper examines the effects of introducing a nonconstant exponential pollution decay rate into a pollution control model. If the pollution level is great enough it may render a waterway biologically dead and unable to cleanse itself. This is the problem associated with Lake Erie and Lake Baikal. The natural question is: Is it ever optimal to let a waterway such as Lake Erie die? The answer is shown to depend upon the form of the objective functional used by the planning authorities. The possibility of multiple stationary solutions also arises.     

Trampling Impacts on Thermotolerant Vegetation of Geothermal Areas in New Zealand

Geothermal features such as geysers, mud pools, sinter terraces, fumaroles, hot springs, and steaming ground are natural attractions often visited by tourists. Visitation rates for such areas in the Taupo Volcanic Zone of New Zealand are in the order of hundreds of thousands annually. These areas are also habitat for rare and specialized plant and microbial communities that live in the steam-heated soils of unusual chemical composition. We evaluated historical and current trampling impacts of tourists on the thermotolerant vegetation of the Waimangu and Waiotapu geothermal areas near Rotorua, and compared the results to experimental trampling at a third site (Taheke) not used by tourists. Historical tourism has removed vegetation and soil from around key features, and remaining subsoil is compacted into an impervious pavement on which vegetation recolonization is unlikely in the short term. Social tracks made by tourists were present at both tourist sites often leading them onto hotter soils than constructed tracks. Vegetation height and cover were lower on and adjacent to social tracks than further from them. Thermotolerant vegetation showed extremely low resistance to experimental trampling. This confirms and extends previous research that also shows that thallophytes and woody shrubs, life forms that dominate in thermotolerant vegetation, are vulnerable to trampling damage. Preservation of these vulnerable ecosystems must ensure that tourist traffic is confined to existing tracks or boardwalks, and active restoration of impacted sites may be warranted.     

Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.     

A Framework for Understanding and Improving Environmental Decision Making

This paper presents a framework for understanding and improving public sector environmental decision making. Within the framework, four interrelated components are discussed: (1) the environmental and cultural context-understanding this context includes understanding what people consider to be environmental problems, the goals and values that they bring to environmental problems and decision processes, specialized and common knowledge about environmental problems, and the institutional settings within which problems are addressed; (2) planning and appraisal activitiesthese activities include forecasting and monitoring exercises, evaluations of past decisions, and decisions that processes ought to be launched to solve specific environmental problems; (3) decision-making modes-these include six typical ways of conducting an environmental problem-solving process, modes which, in the framework, are called emergency action, routine procedures, analysis-centred, elite corps, conflict management and collaborative learning; (4) decision actions-these include five generic steps that are undertaken, formally or intuitively, in virtually any decision-making situation: issue familiarization; criteria setting; option construction; option assessment; and reaching a decision. In the course of describing the framework, we show a decision-making process can be adapted to incorporate sustainability concerns, including fostering sustainable environmental and social systems, meeting obligations to future generations, and searching for robust and reasonable (rather than rigidly optimal) decisions. The framework also helps to illuminate intriguing questions regarding institutional responsibility, decision process complexity and paradigms for environmental decision making.