我国取消电价补贴的经济影响——基于电价管制及完全竞争市场的分析

通过构建电力部门细分的CGE模型,分别在电价管制和完全竞争市场背景下,评估了取消电价交叉补贴和可再生能源电价补贴,以及引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业的经济影响.研究发现:取消电价交叉补贴对GDP有负面影响,而取消可再生能源电价补贴后GDP有所提升;相比完全竞争市场,电价管制市场背景下取消电价交叉补贴对GDP的负面冲击强度增加了0.003%,而取消可再生能源电价补贴对GDP的促进作用幅度则相对减小0.056%;同时取消两种补贴时,在电价管制市场背景下GDP相比基准情景下降了0.022%,而在完全竞争市场背景下GDP则增加了0.038%.电价管制市场背景下取消电价补贴对电力结构及能源结构影响较小;而在完全竞争市场背景下取消电价补贴将刺激传统电力消费并导致碳排放有所增加.引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业可以有效控制碳排放并促进电力结构和能源结构改善,但会对行业总产出和GDP产生更大的负面冲击.我国未来应适度放开电价管制,并采取诸如适时征收碳税并将其收入转移支付给风电和光伏行业的支持性政策,推动我国能源结构优化和节能减排目标的实现.     

2021年中国北方首次沙尘天气的多源遥感分析

利用多源遥感数据和NCEP再分析资料,从沙尘源区的地理环境和气候特征出发,对2021年中国北方首次沙尘天气事件每日的大气环流形势以及沙尘的水平,垂直分布特征进行深入的研究分析.结果表明:源区内异常增温,降水稀少的气候背景下致使大面积裸露松散的土壤含水量较低,为大范围,高强度沙尘天气的形成提供了物质基础;频繁活动的冷空气,是沙尘天气爆发的动力因子.沙尘在强风中沿东南方向向下游地区输送和扩散,中国西北,华北,黄淮,江淮,江汉地区和江南北部等地先后受到沙尘天气的影响,空气质量迅速恶化,首要污染物为PM₁₀.此外,沙尘气溶胶东移也波及朝鲜半岛,日本等下游地区.在输送过程中,内陆地区沙尘主要分布在1~6km,而下游地区的沙尘则集中分布在2km高度附近,粒径较大的沙尘出现在近地表的频率较高,较小的颗粒主要分布在对流层中下层.     

三峡水库水动力分区及总磷标准研究

采用EFDC模型计算2010~2018年三峡水库流域水龄.结果表明,三峡水库水龄由上游库尾至下游库首愈来愈大,尤其坝前水龄高达100余天,湖泊属性增强,坝前支流受库区影响大,大坝调度对水龄影响较大,高水位运行期水龄将增长至2~4倍.基于水龄空间分布将三峡水库及其17条主要支流划分为河流型、河湖过渡型和湖泊型.水龄影响因素定量分析表明,水龄与水位呈正相关,与流量呈负相关,泄水期变化速率较蓄水期明显,单位流量与水位内水龄变化幅度高达6~7d,变化区间介于30~100d之间.最后,提出基于水龄权重法的河湖过渡区总磷评价标准,该标准可揭示库区水体总磷的时空变化特征.     

A novel approach for VOC source apportionment combining characteristic factor and pattern recognition technology in a Chinese industrial area

Volatile organic compound (VOC) emission control and source apportionment in small-scale industrial areas have become key topics of air pollution control in China. This study proposed a novel characteristic factor and pattern recognition (CF-PR) model for VOC source apportionment based on the similarity of characteristic factors between sources and receptors. A simulation was carried out in a typical industrial area with the CF-PR model involving simulated receptor samples. Refined and accurate source profiles were constructed through in situ sampling and analysis, covering rubber, chemicals, coating, electronics, plastics, printing, incubation and medical treatment industries. Characteristic factors of n-undecane, styrene, o-xylene and propane were identified. The source apportionment simulation results indicated that the predicted contribution rate was basically consistent with the real contribution rate. Compared to traditional receptor models, this method achieves notable advantages in terms of refinement and timeliness at similar accuracy, which is more suitable for VOC source identification and apportionment in small-scale industrial areas.     

Source identification, contamination status and health risk assessment of heavy metals from road dusts in Dhaka, Bangladesh

In this study, concentrations of Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were determined in road dusts collected from different locations in Dhaka to assess source, contamination status and health risk. Energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy were used to determine Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb and their mean concentrations were 162.27 ± 29.46, 721.18 ± 180.14, 35.65 ± 12.55, 104.56 ± 128.33, 515.32 ± 321.90, BDL, and 342.82 ± 591.20 mg/kg, respectively. Among the heavy metals, highest concentrations of Cu, Zn and Pb were found at urban sites-7 (municipal waste dumping) and 8 (medical waste incineration). Highest concentration of Cr followed by Cu and Zn was found at site-5 (Tejgaon, urban). Principal component analysis revealed that anthropogenic activities are the potential sources for Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn and Pb while earth crust for Mn. Pollution index and pollution load index results suggested that all the sites were contaminated and/or degraded by Cr, Cu, Zn and Pb except sites-9 (urban), 10 (sub-urban), 11 (rural) while sites-7 and 8 (urban) were extremely degraded. For noncarcinogenic health risk, hazard quotient values for dermal were higher compared to that of inhalation/ingestion. Though hazard index values were less than 1 at all the sites, these were at least one order of magnitude higher for children group than that of adult group, thus the children group may face more noncarcinogenic health risk at sites-7 and 8. Values of incremental lifetime cancer risk were from 10⁻⁹ to 10⁻¹¹ showed no carcinogenic health risk by road dusts contaminated with the heavy metals.     

Phenol degradation in waters with high iodide level by layered double hydroxide-peroxodisulfate: Pathways and products

Recently, layered double hydroxide-peroxodisulfate (LDH-PDS) as an advanced oxidation system can effectively remove organics by the pathway of free radical. However, little has been known if there is a potential risk regarding the formation of high toxic iodine byproducts through another pathway when LDH-PDS is used in high iodide waters at coastal areas. Therefore, this study investigated phenol degradation pathways and transformation products to evaluate both removal mechanism and potential risk by LDH-PDS in high iodide waters. The results showed that in LDH-PDS system, with the degradation of PDS, phenol degraded till below detection limit in 1 hr in the presence of iodide, while PDS and phenol were hardly degraded in the absence of iodide, indicating iodide accelerated the transformation of PDS and the degradation of phenol. What is more, it reached the highest phenol removal efficiency under the condition of 100 mg/L LDH, 0.1 mmol/L PDS and 1.0 mmol/L iodide. In LDH-PDS system, iodide was rapidly oxidized by the highly active interlayer PDS, resulting in the formation of reactive iodine including hypoiodic acid, iodine and triiodide instead of free radicals, which contributed rapid degradation of phenol. However, unfortunately toxic iodophenols were detected. Specifically, 2-iodophenol and 4-iodophenol were formed firstly, afterwards 2,4-diiodophenol and 2,6-diiodophenol were produced, and finally iodophenols and diiodophenols gradually decreased and 2,4,6-Triiodophenol were produced. These results indicated that LDH-PDS should avoid to use in high iodide waters to prevent toxic iodine byproduct formation although iodide can accelerate phenol degradation.     

An integrative analysis of miRNA and mRNA expression in the brains of Alzheimer's disease transgenic mice after real-world PM2.5 exposure

Fine particulatematter (PM2.5) is associated with increased risks of Alzheimer’s disease (AD),yet the toxicologicalmechanisms of PM2.5 promoting AD remain unclear. In this study,wildtype and APP/PS1 transgenic mice (AD mice) were exposed to either filtered air (FA) or PM2.5 for eight weeks with a real-world exposure system in Taiyuan, China (mean PM2.5 concentration in the cage was 61 μg/m3). We found that PM2.5 exposure could remarkably aggravate AD mice’s ethological and brain ultrastructural damage, along with the elevation of the pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6 and TNF-α), Aβ-42 and AChE levels and the decline of ChAT levels in the brains. Based on high-throughput sequencing results, some differentially expressed (DE) mRNAs and DE miRNAs in the brains of AD mice after PM2.5 exposure were screened.Using RT-qPCR, seven DEmiRNAs (mmu-miR-193b-5p, 122b-5p, 466h-3p, 10b-5p, 1895, 384–5p, and 6412) and six genes (Pcdhgb8, Unc13b, Robo3, Prph, Pter, and Tbata) were evidenced the and verified. Two miRNA-target gene pairs (miR-125b-Pcdhgb8 pair and miR-466h-3p-IL-17Rα/TGF-βR2/Aβ-42/AChE pairs) were demonstrated that they were more related to PM2.5-induced brain injury. Results of Gene Ontology (GO) pathways and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways predicted that synaptic and postsynaptic regulation, axon guidance, Wnt, MAPK, and mTOR pathways might be the possible regulatory mechanisms associated with pathological response. These revealed that PM2.5- elevated pro-inflammatory cytokine levels and PM2.5-altered neurotransmitter levels in AD mice could be the important causes of brain damage and proposed the promising miRNA andmRNA biomarkers and potentialmiRNA-mRNA interaction networks of PM2.5-promoted AD.     

天津市采暖季不同气团来向PM2.5中重金属污染特征及健康风险评价

为了解天津市采暖季PM_2.5中重金属的污染特征及健康风险,使用Xact-625重金属在线分析仪于2020年11月至2021年3月对PM_2.5中的重金属元素进行连续采样,分析10种重金属元素(Pb、 Cd、 Cr、 As、 Zn、 Mn、 Co、 Ni、 Cu和V)的污染特征,利用HYSPLIT模型分析重金属元素的时空分布特征,并结合美国EPA健康风险评价模型对重金属健康风险展开研究.结果表明,采样期间天津市10种重金属元素的总浓度平均值为(261.56±241.74)ng·m^-3,Cr[折算Cr(Ⅵ)]和As元素高于《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095-2012)的年平均限值.后向轨迹分析表明,天津市主要受到来自西北部中距离气团(1号)、西北部长距离气团(2号)、西南部气团(3号)和东北部气团(4号)的影响.不同气团来向重金属元素呈现不同的污染特征和健康风险,3号气团PM_2.5浓度、10种重金属元素总浓度和5种重金属元素经呼吸途径暴露的终身致癌风险值之和均最高,2号气团10种重金属元素经呼吸途径暴露...     

化学及干湿循环作用下泥灰岩损伤劣化特性分析北大核心CSCD

库岸岩质边坡底部受水的化学腐蚀及水位变化形成的干湿循环影响,其强度远低于一般岩体。泥灰岩作为一种强度较差的特殊岩体,更易受到地质、水文等因素的联合破坏。对三峡库区巫山段常见的泥灰岩进行化学溶液浸泡及干湿循环作用,开展单轴压缩试验、直剪试验、电镜扫描试验、数值模拟,并采用PSO-BP神经网络对抗剪强度参数进行预测。研究结果表明:泥灰岩在化学及干湿循环作用后的受力变形经历着裂纹起裂-扩展-延伸-破坏四个阶段,破坏时的裂纹扩展路径呈现多向发展的趋势;岩石的单轴抗压强度、内摩擦角、黏聚力在酸性增强及干湿循环次数增加后都有明显下降,这主要与其内部结构、矿物组成有关,干湿循环作用下的热胀冷缩及化学作用下的腐蚀,加剧了泥灰岩内部裂隙扩展、孔隙增大;PSO-BP神经网络能较好地预测泥灰岩抗剪强度参数在不同pH值、不同干湿循环次数下的值,误差较小,可将该方法运用到类似案例分析中。     

民航空中交通管制设施雷电防护的特点

主要结合多年民航系统设备设施的雷电防护建设实践,在符合国家和民航局相关规定、技术规范的前提下,理论结合实际说明民航通信、导航、监视设施雷电防护的特点。