Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Heavy metal concentration in fish tissues inhabiting waters of “Buško Blato” reservoar (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Heavy metals concentration (mercury, lead, cadmium, arsenic, copper, zinc and chromium) in tissues (muscles, liver, kidney and gonads) of Dalmatian barbelgudgeon, the nase, the souffie and brown trout, inhabiting waters of Busko Blato reservoir in Bosnia and Herzegovina, has been determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The meat of the tested fish sorts does not contain elevated concentration of most analyzed heavy metals with exception of lead (higher than MAC in Italy, Germany and Denmark) and mercury (in muscles of brown trout higher than MAC in most countries). The lowest level of all heavy metals is always detected in gonads, with higher values in fry compared to milt for copper, zinc, chromium and arsenic. The highest copper concentration is observed in the liver from the souffie which is suggested as a suitable biomonitor for copper intoxication. In muscles of all fish sorts, lead was always present in much higher concentration than cadmium, while in kidneys of most fish sorts, lead and cadmium concentrations were similar. We showed that bioaccumulation of some heavy metals in the fish sorts analyzed is tissue and sex dependent. Also, we concluded that the small water exchange in reversible shallow reservoir does not induce elevated concentration of heavy metals in fish tissues inhabiting Busko Blato.     

Simplified determination of lipophilic metabolites of nonylphenol ethoxylates: method development and application in aqueous samples from Buenos Aires, Argentina

In the present work we have developed an analytical methodology for the determination of nonylphenol (NP) and nonylphenol mono- and di-ethoxylates (NP1EO and NP2EO) in water samples. The applicability of this methodology was proved by means of the analysis of environmentally relevant aqueous samples from Buenos Aires. This constitutes a starting point for a rigorous assessment of the incidence of NPnEO surfactants in Argentina, as only very few, qualitative or semi-quantitative data on the occurrence of these compounds in local systems were available up to this time. Enrichment of the analytes was carried out by solid-phase extraction on a C-18 sorbent, followed by elution with ethyl acetate. Normal-phase high performance liquid chromatography on an amino-silica column and fluorescence detection at excitation-emission wavelengths of 230-300 nm were employed for separation and quantification of the analytes. Confirmation of peak assignment in selected real samples was performed by off-line coupling HPLC with GC-MS analysis. A non-polar GC capillary column was used, and a characteristic peak pattern was obtained for the alkyl chain isomers of each ethoxylated homologue and NP. GC-MS analyses yielded in all cases purity levels higher than 80% for the HPLC collected fractions. The elevated concentrations found for the estrogenic metabolites of NPnEO are in accordance with an unrestricted use of this class of non-ionic surfactants in the country.     

Characteristics of dwellings contaminated by moulds

Dwellings showing a presence of moulds are considered to be unhealthy both by the inhabitants and by sanitary authorities. Although the thresholds of pathogenicity have not yet been established, the toxic, allergic and infectious risk of indoor moulds is better understood today. A study on indoor fungi contamination for 128 dwellings was done between October and May in France. It concerned 69 dwellings, the occupants of which either complained to the sanitary authorities about problems of moulds and humidity or consulted a doctor who related their symptoms to housing conditions. Fifty-nine other dwellings, the occupants of which were healthy, constituted the control group. We present the statistical analysis of questionnaires, which aimed to clarify characteristics of dwellings associated with high concentrations of airborne moulds. Air samples were taken with an impactor in 500 rooms. On visiting dwellings, investigators obtained answers to 25 questions concerning characteristics of inhabitants and living space, as well as the presence of mould indicators. Indoor and outdoor temperature and indoor relative humidity of air measurements were taken. The total concentration of fungi in the air was significantly higher in ground floor apartments versus those on other floors (p = 0.047), in small and highly occupied dwellings (p = 0.03 and 0.003), in dwellings with electric heating (p = 0.04), without a ventilation system (p = 0.003), with water damage (p = 0.003), and finally, in those where the investigator noted an odour of moisture or visible moulds (p < 0.001). The efficacy of the latter criteria in the evaluation of insalubrity is discussed.     

The comparison of heavy metal accumulation ratios of some fish species in Enne Dame Lake (Kütahya/Turkey)

The metal accumulation levels for muscle, skin, gill, liver and intestine tissues of some Cyprinidae species (Carassius carassius, Condrostoma nasus, Leuciscus cephalus and Alburnus alburnus) in Enne Dame Lake (Kütahya/Turkey), which is mostly fed by hot spring waters, were investigated. Analyses were performed for copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), cobalt (Co), magnesium (Mg), nickel (Ni), chrome (Cr) and boron (B) using inductively coupled plasma-optic emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES), and cadmium (Cd) using atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS) utilizing microwave digestion techniques. The concentrations of the heavy metals found in the fish varied in the follow ing ranges: Cu: < DL-7.04, Zn: 6.96-357.25, Mn: < DL-20.70, Ni: < DL-6.21, Fe: 9.62-2500.33, Cr: < DL-1.74, Co: < DL-0.54, Cd: 0.01-0.27 and Mg: 197.44-904.90 mg/kg wet weight. While B had the second highest concentration in the water of the lake, it was not encountered in any tissue of the investigated species. In all tissues and the species, While the bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) of Mn, Zn, Fe and Cu were remarkably high, the BAFs of Mg, Cr, Co, and B were also fairly low or none. Although the heavy metal accumulation levels for the muscle were generally lower than other tissues, there were some exceptions. Cd level in the muscle of C. carassius was higher than the permissible limit stated by Turkish legislation, FAO and WHO. The mean metal amounts for all the investigated tissues and species are statistically compared and discussed in this study.     

Effect of sampling effort and sampling frequency on the composition of the planktonic crustacean assemblage: a case study of the river Danube

Although numerous studies have focused on the seasonal dynamics of riverine zooplankton, little is known about its short-term variation. In order to examine the effects of sampling frequency and sampling effort, microcrustacean samples were collected at daily intervals between 13 June and 21 July of 2007 in a parapotamal side arm of the river Danube, Hungary. Samples were also taken at biweekly intervals from November 2006 to May 2008. After presenting the community dynamics, the effect of sampling effort was evaluated with two different methods; the minimal sample size was also estimated. We introduced a single index (potential dynamic information loss; to determine the potential loss of information when sampling frequency is reduced. The formula was calculated for the total abundance, densities of the dominant taxa, adult/larva ratios of copepods and for two different diversity measures. Results suggest that abundances may experience notable fluctuations even within 1 week, as do diversities and adult/larva ratios.     

Heavy metals in bottom sediments of Lake Umbozero in Murmansk Region, Russia

Sediment cores collected from different locations of Lake Umbozero were studied with respect to concentration and mobility of trace and heavy metals Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, U, and Zn. Lake Umbozero is the second largest lake in the Murmansk Region and subjected to contamination by air-borne emissions and river transportation from the nearby metallurgical and mining industries. Unlike its neighboring, more industry-prone Lake Imandra, Lake Umbozero is relatively unexplored with respect to its state of pollution. In our study, metal distribution in sediments was found to vary with respect to the cores, although in general the concentrations were at the same level throughout the lake indicating uniform horizontal distribution of metals. When compared to Lake Imandra, the concentrations of most of the metals studied were significantly lower and represented the levels in sediments measured in lakes of Kola Peninsula located further off from industrial pollutant sources. An exception was Pb the concentration of which was at the same level as in Lake Imandra, probably due to long-distance transport. Sediment layers were subjected to four-step sequential extraction procedure to reveal the metal distribution in soluble, exchangeable, acid-soluble, and residual fractions. Indicative of their potential higher lability, Mn, U, and Zn were generally found in exchangeable fraction; as also Mn and U extensively in the acid-soluble fraction.     

Flexible and robust strategies for waste management in Sweden

Treatment of solid waste continues to be on the political agenda. Waste disposal issues are often viewed from an environmental perspective, but economic and social aspects also need to be considered when deciding on waste strategies and policy instruments. The aim of this paper is to suggest flexible and robust strategies for waste management in Sweden, and to discuss different policy instruments. Emphasis is on environmental aspects, but social and economic aspects are also considered. The results show that most waste treatment methods have a role to play in a robust and flexible integrated waste management system, and that the waste hierarchy is valid as a rule of thumb from an environmental perspective. A review of social aspects shows that there is a general willingness among people to source separate wastes. A package of policy instruments can include landfill tax, an incineration tax which is differentiated with respect to the content of fossil fuels and a weight based incineration tax, as well as support to the use of biogas and recycled materials.     

Life cycle assessment of a national policy proposal - the case of a Swedish waste incineration tax

At the core of EU and Swedish waste policy is the so-called waste hierarchy, according to which waste should first be prevented, but should otherwise be treated in the following order of prioritisation: reuse, recycling when environmentally motivated, energy recovery, and last landfilling. Some recent policy decisions in Sweden aim to influence waste management in the direction of the waste hierarchy. In 2001 a governmental commission assessed the economic and environmental impacts of introducing a weight-based tax on waste incineration, the purpose of which would be to encourage waste reduction and increase materials recycling and biological treatment. This paper presents the results of a life cycle assessment (LCA) of the waste incineration tax proposal. It was done in the context of a larger research project concerning the development and testing of a framework for Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). The aim of this paper is to assess the life cycle environmental impacts of the waste incineration tax proposal, and to investigate whether there are any possibilities of more optimal design of such a tax. The proposed design of the waste incineration tax results in increased recycling, but only in small environmental improvements. A more elaborate tax design is suggested, in which the tax level would partly be related to the fossil carbon content of the waste.     

Attempts to probe the ozone layer and the ultraviolet-B levels of the past

To get a proper perspective on the current status of atmospheric ozone, which protects the biosphere from ultraviolet-B (UV-B; 280-315 nm) radiation, it would be of value to know how ozone and UV-B radiation have varied in the past. The record of worldwide ozone monitoring goes back only a few decades, and the record of reliable UV-B measurements is even shorter. Here we review indirect methods to assess their status further back in time. These include variations in the Sun's emission and how these affect the atmosphere, changes in the Earth's orbit, geologic imprints of atmospheric ozone, effects of catastrophic events such as volcanic eruptions, biological proxies of UV-B radiation, the spectral signature of terrestrial ozone in old recordings of star spectra, and the modeling of UV-B irradiance from ozone data and meteorological recordings. Although reliable reconstructions do not yet extend far into the past, there is some hope for future progress.