基于贝叶斯网的风险衰减系数的确定

本文引入贝叶斯网络分析的主要目的在于确定风险衰减系数。说明如何借助数学工具-贝叶斯网络分析确定了风险衰减系数的基本分析方法,同时也可得到有毒重气扩散条件下风险的衰减系数,最终完成了风险叠加模型。     

城市火灾的马尔可夫链预测方法

对1951-2004年间城市火灾起火数据进行分析,可以看出城市火灾发生率具有马尔可夫性.用马尔可夫链预测方法对2005年城市火灾发生率进行了预测,得到预测值与实际值完全吻合.用1991-2004年间城市火灾发生的实际数据对该方法进行了检验,说明该方法的可行性.预测结果表明,马尔可夫链预测方法用于城市火灾发生率及其分级的预测是一种切实可行的方法.     

烟花爆竹在生产过程中的安全管理

烟花生产企业人群知识水平低,认识程度不高;同时,在管理上,缺乏正确引导,一些主管部门没有为企业建立长远的引导规划意识,只是见事说事,按程序办事,现在烟花企业形式不容乐观。作为一个烟花企业,应从以下几点进行安全与质量的管理完善。     

电-多相催化氧化法处理桉木CTMP模拟废水

提出一种基于复极性固定床反应器的有机废水处理新技术--电-多相催化氧化技术,用于桉木CTMP模拟废水的处理.以γ-Al2O3为载体,采用等体积浸渍法制备活性组分为氧化铜的催化剂,用于实验废水的处理.结果表明,在一定的操作条件下,E-HCR(电-多相催化体系)对鞣酸的降解效果明显好于传统的BPBC(复极性固定床电解槽).在外加电压20V、支持电解质质量浓度1000mg/L、pH值为5.35的条件下.降解初始质量浓度为100 mg/L的鞣酸,去除率大于90%.鞣酸降解前后的紫外和红外光普分析表明:鞣酸经电-多相催化氧化处理后,分于中的酚羟基显著减少,分子中的大部分苯环结构开环降解成小分子物质.研究表明所研制的催化剂对鞣酸的电化学降解有很好的催化效果.     

风险管理国际标准解读

1 前言 "风险无处不在".最近几年,全球出现了新兴的管理理念--风险管理,并受到国际社会的普遍关注.风险管理是一个常识性方法论,为组织内部决策指出了明确的方向和途径.     

纳米铝粉对烟火药剂热安全性影响研究

为研究铝粉纳米化后对烟火药剂性能的影响,本文将普通铝粉和纳米铝粉分别与氯酸钾、硫粉按照零氧平衡的同一配比（17％AL＋63％KClO3＋20％S）配成的烟火药剂进行ARC热分析对比试验发现,含纳米铝粉的烟火药剂热分解的初始反应温度降低,反应到达最大温升速率所需的时间延长,反应所能达到的最高压力降低。这说明纳米铝粉的加入在加速其反应进程的同时,可有效地降低其反应的激烈程度和危险性,即铝粉纳米化后可以有效的改善烟火药剂的性能,提高其安全性。     

毒气泄漏事故居民疏散心理行为特征相关性研究

为了研究在毒气泄漏事故中居民的心理行为特征,选择发生过毒气泄漏事故的某化工企业,采用问卷法对其周边居民进行调查,并运用SPSS软件对调查问卷的结果进行独立性分析,从而得出居民在疏散过程中的各种心理行为反应的相关因素,为制定有效的应急疏散管理预案提供科学的依据。     

我国安全专业人员职业化建设现状与分析

我国安全生产形势严峻的深层原因在于安全专业队伍的数量不足、素质不高。有关安全专业人员执业资格的部门规章和地方法规不仅存在交叉,而且法律效力低,这导致许多取得注册安全工程师执业资格安全专业人员在企业得不到重视和重用。参照发达国家和地区安全专业执业资格制度取得的效果和启示,本文提出了实施人才兴安战略的几点对策建议。     

航空公司安全目标控制的研究与改进

通过对航空公司安全目标控制现状的分析,得出了前馈控制中维修隐患查找不力,现场控制中员工自控和领导监督缺乏针对性、安全目标激励作用大打折扣、规章手册不利于查找,以及公司的反馈控制名存实亡等问题。并提出改进意见：针对维修隐患查找提出了新的查找机制;对员工安全指标排序,作为控制和监督的依据;引进目视管理,增强安全目标的激励作用;建议为维修员工提供能够快速查找相关手册项目的设备;使用滚动计划法制定安全计划,并借用其反馈框架,引入因果图查找产生偏差的原因。     

Carbon dioxide emissions from cities in China based on high resolution emission gridded data

Based on the China high resolution emission gridded data (1 km spatial resolution), this article is aimed to create a Chinese city carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission data set using consolidated data sources as well as normalized and standardized data processing methods. Standard methods were used to calculate city CO₂ emissions, including scope 1 and scope 2. Cities with higher CO₂ emissions are mostly in north, northeast, and eastern coastal areas. Cities with lower CO₂ emissions are in the western region. Cites with higher CO₂ emissions are clustered in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region (such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan), and the Yangtze River Delta region (such as Shanghai and Suzhou). The city per capita CO₂ emission is larger in the north than the south. There are obvious aggregations of cities with high per capita CO₂ emission in the north. Four cities among the top 10 per capita emissions (Erdos, Wuhai, Shizuishan, and Yinchuan) cluster in the main coal production areas of northern China. This indicates the significant impact of coal resources endowment on city industry and CO₂ emissions. The majority (77%) of cities have annual CO₂ emissions below 50 million tons. The mean annual emission, among all cities, is 37 million tons. Emissions from service-based cities, which include the smallest number of cities, are the highest. Industrial cities are the largest category and the emission distribution from these cities is close to the normal distribution. Emissions and degree of dispersion, in the other cities (excluding industrial cities and service-based cities), are in the lowest level. Per capita CO₂ emissions in these cities are generally below 20 t/person (89%) with a mean value of 11 t/person. The distribution interval of per capita CO₂ emission within industrial cities is the largest among the three city categories. This indicates greater differences among per capita CO₂ emissions of industrial cities. The distribution interval of per capita CO₂ emission of other cities is the lowest, indicating smaller differences of per capita CO₂ emissions among this city category. Three policy suggestions are proposed: first, city CO₂ emission inventory data in China should be increased, especially for prefecture level cities. Second, city responsibility for emission reduction, and partitioning the national goal should be established, using a bottom-up approach based on specific CO₂ emission levels and potential for emission reductions in each city. Third, comparative and benchmarking research on city CO₂ emissions should be conducted, and a Top Runner system of city CO₂ emission reduction should be established.