Revised estimates and projections of down syndrome births in the United States,and the effects of prenatal diagnosis utilization, 1970–2002

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate revised estimates and projections of United States annual Down syndrome (DS) births for 1970–2002, and (2) estimate the effects of amniocentesis on these baseline DS birth projections. Three models of amniocentesis utilization among 30–34 and ≧ 35-year-old women were considered. The recently revised Census Bureau birth projections, and new single year maternal age DS risk rates estimated from a 1970–1983 Ohio data set, were used. Data from all three Census Bureau projection series were analysed; series II was considered in depth since it is consistent with recent fertility levels. Assuming no use of amniocentesis, total estimated DS births dropped from about 4770 in 1970 to 4120 in 1980 (a 14 per cent decline), but are projected to a plateau of about 5100 by the year 1990 (a 24 per cent increase). DS births to women ≧ 35 would increase dramatically from about 1050 in 1980 to 1900 in 2000 (an 81 per cent increase). Assuming 1983 Ohio prenatal diagnosis ratios for women aged 30–34 (1.7 per cent) and ≧ 35 (23.4 per cent) are used nationally, an annual reduction of about 7 per cent of DS births in 1986 and 9 per cent in 2002 would result. Fifty and 70 per cent utilization among women 30–34 and 235, respectively, would reduce DS births by about 33 per cent in 1986 and 38 per cent in 2002. Therefore, if the projected increase in DS births is to be averted, utilization of prenatal diagnosis by ≧ 30-year-old women must increase substantially.     

Remote measurement of NO2 in the brown cloud over Albuquerque,New Mexico

Remote measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) were recorded in the brown cloud over Albuquerque, NM, using absorption spectroscopy in the winter of 1987-88 and summer of 1989. The NO₂ burdens (optical densities) measured in this manner were found to be in excess of 100 ppm-m. These long pathlength measurements correspond to total concentrations of approximately 5–10 ppb over the integrated observation pathlengths, which ranged from 10–20 km. These concentrations compare well with single location, independent NO _x analyses. Using two correlation (absorption) spectrometers simultaneously, it was shown that the NO₂ distribution is not uniform over the city and can change on the order of minutes in the boundary layer late in the day, demonstrating the advantages of NO₂ optical measurements for assessing the location and extent of urban nitrogen dioxide levels in the boundary layer.     

Do common ravens yell because they want to attract others?

Summary The formation of groups at food bonanzas results from a variety of mechanism, which include recruitment by signalling and information parasitism. Recruitment is distinguished from information parasitism on functional grounds: attraction of a crowd is termed recruitment if the signaler's fitness is enhanced by the attraction of others but termed parasitism if the signaler's fitness is reduced by the attraction of others. We here show, however, that in Common Ravens, Corvus corax, the proximate reasons for giving recruitment signals are probably other than for attracting a crowd. In the forests of the northeastern United States, non-breeding, vagrant ravens commonly aggregate in large numbers at carcasses where they neutralize the defense of territorial adults. We attempted to mimic this situation with a captive flock of juveniles and a pair of resident adults in order to determine the proximate factors triggering yells, vocalizations which attract nearby ravens to large animal carcasses. Our experiments indicate that yells are given primarily by hungry birds. However, yelling is strongly modified by status. Within the vagrant crowd, status is labile. When successive dominants were removed, replacements immediately took their place. Furthermore, when the dominants were re-introduced to the flock they always suffered significant losses of status and ceased yelling. The territorial male has, and constantly maintains, the highest status within (but not necessarily outside) his territory, and here he rarely yells. In sharp contrast, within the vagrant crowd of unmated birds it is the highest-status birds that are the most likely to yell when approaching food. Furthermore, the dominant vagrants (as well as adults) suppress yelling in subordinates. We conclude that ravens yell proximately to advertise their status at food, and that recruitment is only one of several ultimate advantages of the behavior. Offprint request to: B. Heinrich