Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies. 相似文献
The consensus in the literature holds that female-headed households (FHHs) are more vulnerable to social and economic exclusion than male-headed households (MHHs). This paper investigates the socioeconomic determinants of household cooking fuel choices across MHHs and FHHs, using the rich Nigerian Demographic Health Survey data. Using the exogenous switching treatment effect regression (ESTER) technique, the study is able to unravel differences in socioeconomic effects of gender inequality on cooking fuel choices in Nigeria. The results validate the energy ladder hypothesis in the Nigerian case and show that the choices of dirty fuel (biomass) is more prevalent among the de-jure FHH when compared with the de-facto FHH and MHHs. Also, the probability of biomass-use among MHHs would have fallen by 1.3% if MHHs had similar socioeconomic attributes as the FHHs. In the same vain for FHHs, the probability of kerosene-use would have increased by 2%. The study observed no gender gap in kerosene-use. Thus, the established gender gap in biomass- and kerosene-use would have reduced to 6.7% and 2.8%, respectively, if the de-facto FHHs had same socioeconomic attributes as the de-jures. Considering the traditional gendered household division of labor within the households, de-jure FHHs’ energy choices may be due to limited economic opportunities that guarantees cleaner energy options.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - PCB forensic science is the process of identifying the source(s) of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) at a site in the context of a legal proceeding to... 相似文献
A study of the effects of different XAD-resins, bed volume, flow rate, pH and type of eluent on the extraction of organic mutagens from surface water is presented. XAD-4/8 is as effective as XAD-2 in concentrating organic mutagens from surface water and dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) is as efficient as acetone in eluting the adsorbed organic mutagens. The latter allows direct testing up to 0.5 ml of DMSO concentrate in the Ames test. Variation of the pH of the water after passing the XAD-4/8, followed by readsorption, shows that the majority of the mutagenic activity due to dissolved organics is adsorbed at neutral pH. Only a minor fraction is readsorbed at pH 3. Further a XAD-4/8 concentrate and a similar concentrate prepared by freeze drying gives similar mutagenic activity. This indicates that many of the organic mutagens are recovered in the XAD-4/8 concentrate.It is concluded that adsorption on XAD-4/8, followed by direct testing of the DMSO eluates in the Ames test, presents a rapid and relatively simple way to detect low concentrations of organic mutagens in surface water. The general suitability of the method is shown for different types of surface water. 相似文献
The purpose of the study reported here was to investigate the relative resistance of yeast species to various metallic and metalloid ions, with a view to gaining more knowledge on this subject, as resistant species may become dominant in habitats contaminated with the relevant metals. Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Candida albicans and Candida tropicalis were grown in media containing different concentrations of mercury (as HgCl(2)), cadmium (as CdCl(2)), lead (as Pb(CH(3)COO)(2)), arsenic (as Na(2)HAsO(4)) and selenium (as Na(2)SeO(3)) for various intervals. Invariably, the two Candida species turned out to be more resistant to all the metals studied than S. cerevisiae. The metal showing the highest toxicity for these species was mercury, with cadmium being the second, lead, the third and arsenic and selenium being the least toxic elements. Strains showing resistance to mercury were isolated, even in the case of S. cerevisiae. 相似文献