Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk

Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect forest offsets—fat tails, micro-correlation, and tail dependence—and provide examples of how they could present themselves in a forest offset context. Given these potential dependencies, we suggest several new risk management approaches that take into account dependencies in reversal risk across projects and which could help guard the climate integrity of an offsets program. We also argue that data collection be included as an integral part of any offsets program so that disturbance-related dependencies may be identified and managed as early and to the greatest extent possible.     

Time‐Dependent Health Risk from Contaminated Groundwater Including Use of Reliability,Resilience, and Vulnerability as Measures

Traditionally, assessment of human health risk caused by contamination of a water supply focuses on the maximum risk to an individual. Here, we introduce a time‐dependent risk assessment method and adapt and explore the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) criteria from the surface‐water literature as possible tools for assessing this risk. Time‐dependent risk assessment, including RRV, is applied to two synthetic examples where water quality at a well varies over time. We calculate time‐dependent health risks for discrete periods of exposure to the contaminated water for a variable population. The RRV criteria provide information about time‐dependent risk: probability of an acceptable risk, probability of system recovery, maximum risk, and average exceedance of a prescribed risk threshold. The results demonstrate that episodic contamination events produce fundamentally different time‐dependent risks than long‐term events: these differences, such as generally lower risks for the episodic contamination, can be captured via plots of the risk and the RRV criteria. Furthermore, the evaluation of time‐dependent health risk and the RRV criteria demonstrates significant sensitivity to the shape of the contaminant breakthrough curve, length of exposure, and variability within the population. Overall, analysis of time‐dependent health risks provides substantial insight into the structure of risk, with RRV providing a reasonable framework for the evaluation of these risks.     

Hierarchical Bayesian strategy for modeling correlated compositional data with observed zero counts

This article proposes a hierarchical multivariate conditional autoregressive model applied to a compositional response vector. We particularly focus on situations when the composition is discrete occurring when observations are based on small multinomial counts. We address drawbacks that exist in current modeling approaches for such data. Our hierarchical model will be demonstrated with data used to help manage a commercial sockeye salmon fishery in the Fraser River of British Columbia.     

A national critical loads framework for atmospheric deposition effects assessment: IV. Model selection,applications, and critical loads mapping

The critical loads approach is emerging as an attractive means for evaluating the effects of atmospheric deposition on sensitive terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Various approaches are available for modeling ecosystem responses to deposition and for estimating critical load values. These approaches include empirical and statistical relationships, steady-state and simple process models, and integrated-effects models. For any given ecosystem, the most technically sophisticated approach will not necessarily be the most appropriate for all applications; identification of the most useful approach depends upon the degree of accuracy needed and upon data and computational requirements, biogeochemical processes being modeled, approaches used for representing model results on regional bases, and desired degree of spatial and temporal resolution. Different approaches are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. If the limitations of individual approaches are known, the user can determine whether an approach provides a reasonable basis for decision making. Several options, including point maps, grid maps, and ecoregional maps, are available for presenting model results in a regional context. These are discussed using hypothetical examples for choosing populations and damage limits. The research described in this article has been funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency. This document has been prepared at the EPA Environmental Research Laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, through contract #68-C8-0006 with ManTech Environmental Technology, Inc., and Interagency Agreement #1824-B014-A7 with the U.S. Department of Energy and at Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., under Contract DE-AC05-84OR21400 with the US Department of Energy. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 3904. It has been subjected to the agency’s peer and administrative review and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

Natural Resource Assessment: An Approach to Science Based Planning in National Parks

We conducted a natural resource assessment at two national parks, New River Gorge National River and Shenandoah National Park, to help meet the goals of the Natural Resource Challenge—a program to help strengthen natural resource management at national parks. We met this challenge by synthesizing and interpreting natural resource information for planning purposes and we identified information gaps and natural significance of resources. We identified a variety of natural resources at both parks as being globally and/or nationally significant, including large expanses of unfragmented, mixed-mesophytic forests that qualify for wilderness protection, rare plant communities, diverse assemblages of neotropical migratory birds and salamanders, and outstanding aquatic recreational resources. In addition, these parks function, in part, as ecological reserves for plants in and wildlife. With these significant natural resources in mind, we also developed a suite of natural resource management recommendations in light of increasing threats from within and outside park boundaries. We hope that our approach can provide a blueprint for natural resource conservation at publically owned lands.     

COORDINATION OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE AC A CASE STUDY OF LAKE RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: The potential for joint public and private action for lake restoration is examined using Lake Apopka, Florida, as a case study. Initial calculations indicate that private incentives alone are inadequate to attract investment in a facility to grow and harvest water hyacinths for conversion to methane gas. However, the private externality of water quality improvement associated with harvesting water hyacinths provides a key linkage between the public's water quality objectives and the private gas producer's actions. In order to establish the potential basis for negotiation, the public's willingness-to-pay for environmental services associated with improved water quality is estimated and compared with the estimated subsidy required to induce private action. A conceptual framework is then presented for coordinating actions between private firms and public water management agencies in order to internalize the private externality of water quality improvement while simultaneously achieving the public and private objectives. Results indicate that the subsidization of water hyacinth production and harvesting compares favorably with alternative means of enhancing the water quality of Lake Apopka.