Multiple sources of predictive uncertainty in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange

Net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) is typically measured directly by eddy covariance towers or is estimated by ecosystem process models, yet comparisons between the data obtained by these two methods can show poor correspondence. There are three potential explanations for this discrepancy. First, estimates of NEE as measured by the eddy-covariance technique are laden with uncertainty and can potentially provide a poor baseline for models to be tested against. Second, there could be fundamental problems in model structure that prevent an accurate simulation of NEE. Third, ecosystem process models are dependent on ecophysiological parameter sets derived from field measurements in which a single parameter for a given species can vary considerably. The latter problem suggests that with such broad variation among multiple inputs, any ecosystem modeling scheme must account for the possibility that many combinations of apparently feasible parameter values might not allow the model to emulate the observed NEE dynamics of a terrestrial ecosystem, as well as the possibility that there may be many parameter sets within a particular model structure that can successfully reproduce the observed data. We examined the extent to which these three issues influence estimates of NEE in a widely used ecosystem process model, Biome-BGC, by adapting the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. This procedure involved 400,000 model runs, each with randomly generated parameter values from a uniform distribution based on published parameter ranges, resulting in estimates of NEE that were compared to daily NEE data from young and mature Ponderosa pine stands at Metolius, Oregon. Of the 400,000 simulations run with different parameter sets for each age class (800,000 total), over 99% of the simulations underestimated the magnitude of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange, with only 4.07% and 0.045% of all simulations providing satisfactory simulations of the field data for the young and mature stands, even when uncertainties in eddy-covariance measurements are accounted for. Results indicate fundamental shortcomings in the ability of this model to produce realistic carbon flux data over the course of forest development, and we suspect that much of the mismatch derives from an inability to realistically model ecosystem respiration. However, difficulties in estimating historic climate data are also a cause for model-data mismatch, particularly in a highly ecotonal region such as central Oregon. This latter difficulty may be less prevalent in other ecosystems, but it nonetheless highlights a challenge in trying to develop a dynamic representation of the terrestrial biosphere.     

Partitioning and removal of perfluorooctanoate during rain events: the importance of physical-chemical properties

The potential for airborne emissions to undergo long-range transport or to be removed from the atmosphere is influenced by their physical-chemical properties. When perfluorooctanate (PFO) enters the environment, its physical-chemical properties can vary significantly, depending on whether it exists as an acid, a salt, or a dissociated ion. A summary of the physical-chemical properties of the three most likely environmental states: ammonium perfluorooctanoate (APFO), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and the dissociated perfluorooctanoate anion (PFO(-)) is presented to illustrate the distinct environmental properties of each. The most volatile species, PFOA, is shown to have a pH-dependent air-water partitioning coefficient (K(aw)). The variability of K(aw) with pH influences the potential for vapor formation from aqueous environments, including rain events. Using the pH-dependent K(aw) and measured rain and air concentrations, it is shown that vapor-phase PFOA is not likely to be present above measurable levels of 0.2 ng m(-3) (12 parts per quadrillion v/v) during a rain event. Because rain concentrations determined in this work are comparable to measurements in other parts of North America, it is unlikely that rain events are a significant source of vapor-phase PFOA for the general North American region. It is shown that PFOA exists primarily in the particle phase in ambient air near direct sources of emissions and is efficiently scavenged by rain droplets, making wet deposition an important removal mechanism for emissions originating as either PFOA or APFO. Washout ratios of particle-associated PFO were determined to range between 1 x 10(5) and 5 x 10(5), in the same range as other semi-volatile compounds for which wet deposition is an important mechanism for atmospheric removal and deposition onto soils and water bodies.     

Inhibition of attachment of larval barnacles,Balanus amphitrite,by bacterial surface films

Films of bacteria on solid substrata can positively or negatively influence the attachment of marine invertebrate larvae. Effects of marine bacteria on the attachment of cypris larvae of the barnacle Balanus amphitrite Darwin were examined in the laboratory. Bacteria, grown to mid-exponential phase and allowed to adsorb irreversibly to polystyrene petri dishes, attached in densities of 10⁷ cells cm^-2. Assays (22h) were used to compare the effects of adsorbed cells of 18 different bacterial species on larval barnacle attachment. Most of the adsorbed bacteria either inhibited or had no effect on larval attachment compared to clean surfaces. Experiments testing the effect of larval age on barnacle attachment were conducted with six species of bacteria and showed that older larvae attached in higher percentages to clean surfaces and that bacterial films generally inhibited larval attaschment. Both the species of bacteria and the in situ age of the adsorbed bacteria affected barnacle attachment response: older films of Deleya (Pseudomonas) marina were more inhibitory. Bacterial extracellular materials may be involved in the inhibitory process.     

Relationship of Destruction Parameters to the Destruction/Removal Efficiency of PCBs

The destruction/removal efficiency (DRE), and the ability to accurately measure it, is a function of the concentration of the chemical compound in the input waste, the incinerator design and operation, sampling methods, and the analytical procedures. All of these are interrelated. This paper discusses the basic DRE equation [DRE = W_In W_out)/W_in × 100] and how it relates to some of the other destruction parameters. Some example data from the literature are presented. While PCBs have been used as the example, the equations and graphs are equally valid for some other hazardous compounds (POHCs), with the substitution of the 99.99% DRE requirement in lieu of the 99.9999% DRE for PCBs. The use of the relationships discussed in this paper should allow incinerator operators to more efficiently plan demonstration test burns which will adequately demonstrate the DRE.     

Vegetation associated with different walking track types in the Kosciuszko alpine area, Australia

Tourism infrastructure such as walking tracks can have negative effects on vegetation including in mountain regions. In the alpine area around continental Australia's highest mountain, Mt Kosciuszko (2228 m), there is a range of walking tracks (paved, gravel and raised steel mesh surfaces) in addition to an extensive network of informal/non-hardened tracks. Vegetation characteristics were compared between track types on/under tracks, on the track verge, and in the adjacent native vegetation. For a raised steel mesh walkway there was no difference in vegetation under the walkway, on the verge, and 3m away. In contrast, for a non-hardened track there was 35% bare ground on the track surface but no other detectable impacts. Gravel and paved tracks had distinct verges largely comprising bare ground and exotic species. For non-hardened tracks there was an estimated 270 m2 of disturbance per km of track. For wide gravel tracks the combined area of bare ground, exotic plants and gravel was estimated as 4290 m2 per km, while for narrow gravel tracks it was estimated as 2940 m2 per km. For paved tracks there was around 2680 m2 per km of damage. In contrast, there was no detectable effect of raised steel mesh walkway on vegetation highlighting some of the benefits of this surface over other track types.     

Spatial cost–benefit analysis of blue restoration and factors driving net benefits globally

Marine coastal ecosystems, commonly referred to as blue ecosystems, provide valuable services to society but are under increasing threat worldwide due to a variety of drivers, including eutrophication, development, land-use change, land reclamation, and climate change. Ecological restoration is sometimes necessary to facilitate recovery in coastal ecosystems. Blue restoration (i.e., in marine coastal systems) is a developing field, and projects to date have been small scale and expensive, leading to the perception that restoration may not be economically viable. We conducted a global cost–benefit analysis to determine the net benefits of restoring coral reef, mangrove, saltmarsh, and seagrass ecosystems, where the benefit is defined as the monetary value of ecosystem services. We estimated costs from published restoration case studies and used an adjusted-value-transfer method to assign benefit values to these case studies. Benefit values were estimated as the monetary value provided by ecosystem services of the restored habitats. Benefits outweighed costs (i.e., there were positive net benefits) for restoration of all blue ecosystems. Mean benefit:cost ratios for ecosystem restoration were eight to 10 times higher than prior studies of coral reef and seagrass restoration, most likely due to the more recent lower cost estimates we used. Among ecosystems, saltmarsh had the greatest net benefits followed by mangrove; coral reef and seagrass ecosystems had lower net benefits. In general, restoration in nations with middle incomes had higher (eight times higher in coral reefs and 40 times higher in mangroves) net benefits than those with high incomes. Within an ecosystem type, net benefit varied with restoration technique (coral reef and saltmarsh), ecosystem service produced (mangrove and saltmarsh), and project duration (seagrass). These results challenge the perceptions of the low economic viability of blue restoration and should encourage further targeted investment in this field.     

Food justice youth development: using Photovoice to study urban school food systems*

How do youth learn through participation in efforts to study and change the school food system? Through our participatory youth action research (YPAR) project, we move beyond the “youth as consumer” frame to a food justice youth development (FJYD) approach. We track how a group of youth learned about food and the public policy process through their efforts to transform their own school food systems by conducting a participatory evaluation of farm-to-school efforts in collaboration with university and community partners. We used the Photovoice research method, placing cameras in the hands of young people so that they themselves could document and discuss their concerns and perspectives. The research was designed to gain insight about youths’ knowledge of food, health, and community food systems. Drawing upon the youth group’s insights, we build a framework for building critical consciousness through FJYD.     

Impacts of experimental trampling on tall alpine herbfields and subalpine grasslands in the Australian Alps

The Australian Alps, which are of high conservation value, are popular summer bushwalking destinations. Experimental trampling trials using a standardized methodology were conducted to determine the resistance and resilience of the two common vegetation types: tall alpine herbfield and subalpine grasslands. Vegetation parameters were measured in lanes subject to control (no trampling), 30, 100, 200, 500 and 700 passes at five sites prior to trampling, immediately post trampling, 2 weeks, 6 weeks and 1 year post trampling. Vegetation height, cover of graminoids and herbs, as well as net species richness all declined with trampling, while litter cover increased. Thresholds for damage varied between the two communities and among the different vegetation parameters. The resistance indices for the two communities (number of passes resulting in 50% reduction in vegetation cover), however, were similar at around 440–450 passes indicating that these two communities are among the most resistant of the 19 alpine–subalpine communities that have been tested around the world, but only of moderate resistance compared to non-alpine communities. The two communities showed limited recovery with damage still evident 1 year post trampling. This indicates that they have only moderate tolerance to damage due to moderate resistance, but low resilience.