When does nitrate become a risk for humans?

Is nitrate harmful to humans? Are the current limits for nitrate concentration in drinking water justified by science? There is substantial disagreement among scientists over the interpretation of evidence on the issue. There are two main health issues: the linkage between nitrate and (i) infant methaemoglobinaemia, also known as blue baby syndrome, and (ii) cancers of the digestive tract. The evidence for nitrate as a cause of these serious diseases remains controversial. On one hand there is evidence that shows there is no clear association between nitrate in drinking water and the two main health issues with which it has been linked, and there is even evidence emerging of a possible benefit of nitrate in cardiovascular health. There is also evidence of nitrate intake giving protection against infections such as gastroenteritis. Some scientists suggest that there is sufficient evidence for increasing the permitted concentration of nitrate in drinking water without increasing risks to human health. However, subgroups within a population may be more susceptible than others to the adverse health effects of nitrate. Moreover, individuals with increased rates of endogenous formation of carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds are likely to be susceptible to the development of cancers in the digestive system. Given the lack of consensus, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive, independent study to determine whether the current nitrate limit for drinking water is scientifically justified or whether it could safely be raised.     

Histological alternation and vitellogenin induction in adult rare minnow (Gobiocypris rarus) after exposure to ethynylestradiol and nonylphenol

Adult rare minnow (Gobiocypris rarus) were exposed to 0, 1, 5, and 25 ng/l (nominal concentrations) of 17alpha-ethynylestradiol (EE2) and 3, 10, and 30 microg/l (nominal concentrations) of 4-nonylphenol (NP) under flow-through conditions for a period of 28 d. Low mortality was observed at 5 and 25 ng/l EE2 and the growth of fish reduced significantly at 25 ng/l EE2 compared to controls. However, the gonadosomatic indices (GSI) of male fish were significantly higher in 1 ng/l EE(2) treatments and in 10 and 30 microg/l NP treatments (p<0.05). Renal somatic indices (RSI) of male fish in EE2 treatments were significantly higher than those in controls (p<0.05). In contrast, significantly decreased GSI and RSI of female fish could only be observed in 5 and 25 ng/l EE(2) treatments (p<0.05). Hepatosomatic indices (HSI) of male fish were significantly higher in 25 ng/l EE(2) treatments. However, significantly increased of HSI of female fish could only be observed in 1 ng/l EE(2) treatments. Plasma vitellogenin (VTG) induction could be observed in males after exposed to different concentrations of EE2 and NP, and plasma VTG concentrations in females exposed to 5 and 25 ng/l EE(2) were also significantly higher than in controls (p<0.05). At level higher than 5 ng/l EE2 or 30 microg/l NP, hepatic tissue and renal tissue impairment of males could be observed. The pathological male liver was associated with a hypertrophy of hepatocytes and damages to cellar structure and accumulated eosinophilic material. Renal tissue showed different pathological effects which was reflected by accumulated eosinophilic material, hemorrhages within the kidney tubules and hypertrophy of the tubular epithelia. Also at these levels of exposure, feminization of male fish could be noticed and parts of males manifested the testis-ova phenomenon. Ovaries of female rare minnow in 25 ng/l EE2 treatment group were degenerated. Therefore when exposed to EE2 and NP even at environmental observed concentrations, adverse effects could occur in the reproductive system of adult fishes. The observed hepatic tissue and renal tissue impairment should be due to the induction and accumulation of VTG in organs, especially in males.     

Managing Baltic Sea fisheries under contrasting production and predation regimes: ecosystem model analyses

Based on an earlier published ecosystem model, we have explored possible effects of different management scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The scenarios include an oligotrophication of the system, a drastic increase in the number of seals, and changes in the fishery management. From these simulations we conclude that fisheries, seals, and eutrophication all have strong and interacting impacts on the ecosystem. These interactions call for integrated management. The modeling highlights the potential for conflicts among management mandates such as flourishing fisheries, rebuilt seal populations, and substantially reduced eutrophication. The results also suggest that fisheries management reference points have to be adjusted in response to changes in the presence of natural predators or ecosystem productivity.     

Sensitivity of species-distribution models to error,bias, and model design: An application to resource selection functions for woodland caribou

Models that predict distribution are now widely used to understand the patterns and processes of plant and animal occurrence as well as to guide conservation and management of rare or threatened species. Application of these methods has led to corresponding studies evaluating the sensitivity of model performance to requisite data and other factors that may lead to imprecise or false inferences. We expand upon these works by providing a relative measure of the sensitivity of model parameters and prediction to common sources of error, bias, and variability. We used a one-at-a-time sample design and GPS location data for woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) to assess one common species-distribution model: a resource selection function. Our measures of sensitivity included change in coefficient values, prediction success, and the area of mapped habitats following the systematic introduction of geographic error and bias in occurrence data, thematic misclassification of resource maps, and variation in model design. Results suggested that error, bias and model variation have a large impact on the direct interpretation of coefficients. Prediction success and definition of important habitats were less responsive to the perturbations we introduced to the baseline model. Model coefficients, prediction success, and area of ranked habitats were most sensitive to positional error in species locations followed by sampling bias, misclassification of resources, and variation in model design. We recommend that researchers report, and practitioners consider, levels of error and bias introduced to predictive species-distribution models. Formal sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are the most effective means for evaluating and focusing improvements on input data and considering the range of values possible from imperfect models.     

Thought self-leadership: The influence of self-talk and mental imagery on performance

Self-leadership theory can be described as the ‘process of influencing oneself ’as opposed to the influence of leaders over followers (Manz, 1983, 1986). We focus on and develop a model for a particular aspect of self-leadership — thought self-leadership — emphasizing two primary elements, self-talk and mental imagery. The major thrust of this model is that employees can influence or lead themselves by utilizing specific cognitive strategies that focus on individual self-dialogue and mental imagery. It is proposed that constructive thought management through the effective application of cognitive strategies can lead to enhanced individual and organizational performance.     

Sound Survey Designs Can Facilitate Integrating Stream Monitoring Data Across Multiple Programs1

Abstract: Multiple agencies in the Pacific Northwest monitor the condition of stream networks or their watersheds. Some agencies use a stream “network” perspective to report on the fraction or length of the network that either meets or violates particular criteria. Other agencies use a “watershed” perspective to report on the health or condition of watersheds. The agencies often use the same indicators and measurement protocols for data collection and often conduct monitoring in overlapping geographic regions. In these situations, agencies would like to combine data across different monitoring studies in a statistically sound manner to make regional estimates of condition. Three statistical survey design principles will facilitate combining such studies: (1) a clearly specified statistical target population of interest, including elements that comprise the population, (2) a consistent representation of that target population (such as a digital map of the stream network and watersheds), and (3) rules that incorporate randomization to guide the selection of the sample of sites on which measurements will be made. A case study illustrates the application of these design principles using two agency monitoring programs interested in combining stream channel data for different purposes: one for making network summaries and the other for evaluating watershed condition.     

Thermal and energetic constraints on ectotherm abundance: a global test using lizards

Population densities of birds and mammals have been shown to decrease with body mass at approximately the same rate as metabolic rates increase, indicating that energetic needs constrain endotherm population densities. In ectotherms, the exponential increase of metabolic rate with body temperature suggests that environmental temperature may additionally constrain population densities. Here we test simple bioenergetic models for an ecologically important group of ectothermic vertebrates by examining 483 lizard populations. We find that lizard population densities decrease as a power law of body mass with a slope approximately inverse to the slope of the relationship between metabolic rates and body mass. Energy availability should limit population densities. As predicted, environmental productivity has a positive effect on lizard density, strengthening the relationship between lizard density and body mass. In contrast, the effect of environmental temperature is at most weak due to behavioral thermoregulation, thermal evolution, or the temperature dependence of ectotherm performance. Our results provide initial insights into how energy needs and availability differentially constrain ectotherm and endotherm density across broad spatial scales.