Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Kinetics of the tropospheric formaldehyde loss onto mineral dust and urban surfaces

The kinetics of the heterogeneous reaction between gaseous HCHO and TiO₂/SiO₂ mineral coatings were investigated using a coated-wall flow tube to mimic HCHO loss on mineral aerosol and TiO₂ coated depolluting urban surfaces. The measured uptake kinetics were strongly enhanced when the flow tube was irradiated with 340–420 nm UV light with an irradiance of 1.45 mW cm^?2. The associated BET uptake coefficients ranged from (3.00 ± 0.45) × 10^?9 to (2.26 ± 0.34) × 10^?6 and were strongly dependent on HCHO initial concentration, relative humidity, temperature, and TiO₂ content in the mineral coating, which ranged from 3.5 to 32.5 ppbv, 6–70%, 278–303 K, and 1–100 %wt, respectively. The measured kinetics were well described using a Langmuir–Hinshelwood type formalism. The estimated uptake coefficients were used to discuss the importance of heterogeneous HCHO surface loss, in terms of deposition lifetimes, as compared to major homogeneous gas-phase losses such as OH reaction and photolysis. It is found that deposition may compete with gas-phase removal of HCHO in a dense urban environment if more than 10% of the urban surface is covered with TiO₂ treated material.     

A retrospective comparison of model-based forecasted PM2.5 concentrations with measurements

This study presents an assessment of the performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical model in forecasting daily PM2.5 (particulate matter < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) mass concentrations over most of the eastern United States for a 2-yr period from June 14, 2006 to June 13, 2008. Model predictions were compared with filter-based and continuous measurements of PM2.5 mass and species on a seasonal and regional basis. Results indicate an underprediction of PM2.5 mass in spring and summer, resulting from under-predictions in sulfate and total carbon concentrations. During winter, the model overpredicted mass concentrations, mostly at the urban sites in the northeastern United States because of overpredictions in unspeciated PM2.5 (suggesting possible overestimation of primary emissions) and sulfate. A comparison of observed and predicted diurnal profiles of PM2.5 mass at five sites in the domain showed significant discrepancies. Sulfate diurnal profiles agreed in shape across three sites in the southern portion of the domain but differed at two sites in the northern portion of the domain. Predicted organic carbon (OC) profiles were similar in shape to mass, suggesting that discrepancies in mass profiles probably resulted from the underprediction in OC. The diurnal profiles at a highly urbanized site in New York City suggested that the overpredictions at that site might be resulting from overpredictions during the morning and evening hours, displayed as sharp peaks in predicted profiles. An examination of the predicted planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights also showed possible issues in the modeling of PBL.     

Impact of dry deposition of semi-volatile organic compounds on secondary organic aerosols

Dry deposition of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC) is not currently treated in most chemical transport models of air quality and this omission has been identified as a possible major source of uncertainty. The effect of dry deposition of SVOC on the concentration of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) is investigated in summertime with the chemical transport model CHIMERE that simulates SOA concentrations by means of molecular SOA surrogate species. Omitting dry deposition could overestimate SOA concentrations by as much as 50%. This overestimation is larger during nighttime due to higher relative humidity.     

Forest plantations, water availability, and regional climate change: controversies surrounding Acacia mearnsii plantations in the upper Palnis Hills, southern India

Plantation forests not only impact carbon and water cycles, but also affect biodiversity, livelihoods, and shape regional economies. Each of these impacts differs across varying scales of analysis. This paper illustrates how forest, climate change and hydrology debates play out in the context of the forest plantations of Australian black wattle (Acacia mearnsii) in the upper Palni hills of southern India. We outline the contradictory perspectives of different local groups regarding the impact of plantations on catchment hydrology and water availability, and examine these in relation to changes in the regional economy and rainfall patterns. Our analysis indicates that changes in these two factors have played a more significant role than existing wattle plantations in affecting local and regional water availability. We suggest that ongoing debates regarding forest plantation–hydrology–climate change relationships need to broaden their scope to include changes in regional rainfall patterns and shifts in regional economic activity. This approach is likely to provide a more realistic assessment of plantation forests in a dynamic regional context, and offer more resilient strategies for regional landscape and catchment management under conditions of high variability in rainfall patterns.     

Assessing computer waste generation in Chile using material flow analysis

The quantities of e-waste are expected to increase sharply in Chile. The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative data basis on generated e-waste quantities. A material flow analysis was carried out assessing the generation of e-waste from computer equipment (desktop and laptop PCs as well as CRT and LCD-monitors). Import and sales data were collected from the Chilean Customs database as well as from publications by the International Data Corporation. A survey was conducted to determine consumers’ choices with respect to storage, re-use and disposal of computer equipment. The generation of e-waste was assessed in a baseline as well as upper and lower scenarios until 2020.The results for the baseline scenario show that about 10,000 and 20,000 tons of computer waste may be generated in the years 2010 and 2020, respectively. The cumulative e-waste generation will be four to five times higher in the upcoming decade (2010–2019) than during the current decade (2000–2009). By 2020, the shares of LCD-monitors and laptops will increase more rapidly replacing other e-waste including the CRT-monitors. The model also shows the principal flows of computer equipment from production and sale to recycling and disposal. The re-use of computer equipment plays an important role in Chile. An appropriate recycling scheme will have to be introduced to provide adequate solutions for the growing rate of e-waste generation.     

Belowground effects of enhanced tropospheric ozone and drought in a beech/spruce forest (Fagus sylvatica L./Picea abies [L.] Karst)

The effects of experimentally elevated O₃ on soil respiration rates, standing fine-root biomass, fine-root production and δ¹³C signature of newly produced fine roots were investigated in an adult European beech/Norway spruce forest in Germany during two subsequent years with contrasting rainfall patterns. During humid 2002, soil respiration rate was enhanced under elevated O₃ under beech and spruce, and was related to O₃-stimulated fine-root production only in beech. During dry 2003, the stimulating effect of O₃ on soil respiration rate vanished under spruce, which was correlated with decreased fine-root production in spruce under drought, irrespective of the O₃ regime. δ¹³C signature of newly formed fine-roots was consistent with the differing g_s of beech and spruce, and indicated stomatal limitation by O₃ in beech and by drought in spruce. Our study showed that drought can override the stimulating O₃ effects on fine-root dynamics and soil respiration in mature beech and spruce forests.     

Investigation into the effect of high concentrations of volatile fatty acids in anaerobic digestion on methanogenic communities

A study was conducted to determine whether differences in the levels of volatile fatty acids (VFAs) in anaerobic digester plants could result in variations in the indigenous methanogenic communities. Two digesters (one operated under mesophilic conditions, the other under thermophilic conditions) were monitored, and sampled at points where VFA levels were high, as well as when VFA levels were low. Physical and chemical parameters were measured, and the methanogenic diversity was screened using the phylogenetic microarray ANAEROCHIP. In addition, real-time PCR was used to quantify the presence of the different methanogenic genera in the sludge samples. Array results indicated that the archaeal communities in the different reactors were stable, and that changes in the VFA levels of the anaerobic digesters did not greatly alter the dominating methanogenic organisms. In contrast, the two digesters were found to harbour different dominating methanogenic communities, which appeared to remain stable over time. Real-time PCR results were inline with those of microarray analysis indicating only minimal changes in methanogen numbers during periods of high VFAs, however, revealed a greater diversity in methanogens than found with the array.     

Road traffic impact on urban water quality: a step towards integrated traffic,air and stormwater modelling

Methods for simulating air pollution due to road traffic and the associated effects on stormwater runoff quality in an urban environment are examined with particular emphasis on the integration of the various simulation models into a consistent modelling chain. To that end, the models for traffic, pollutant emissions, atmospheric dispersion and deposition, and stormwater contamination are reviewed. The present study focuses on the implementation of a modelling chain for an actual urban case study, which is the contamination of water runoff by cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) in the Grigny urban catchment near Paris, France. First, traffic emissions are calculated with traffic inputs using the COPERT4 methodology. Next, the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants is simulated with the Polyphemus line source model and pollutant deposition fluxes in different subcatchment areas are calculated. Finally, the SWMM water quantity and quality model is used to estimate the concentrations of pollutants in stormwater runoff. The simulation results are compared to mass flow rates and concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn measured at the catchment outlet. The contribution of local traffic to stormwater contamination is estimated to be significant for Pb and, to a lesser extent, for Zn and Cd; however, Pb is most likely overestimated due to outdated emissions factors. The results demonstrate the importance of treating distributed traffic emissions from major roadways explicitly since the impact of these sources on concentrations in the catchment outlet is underestimated when those traffic emissions are spatially averaged over the catchment area.     

Current Status of Air Quality Models for Particulate Matter

ABSTRACT

The current status of the mathematical modeling of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) is reviewed in this paper. Simulating PM requires treating various processes, including the formation of condensable species, the gas/ particle partitioning of condensable compounds, and in some cases, the evolution of the particle size distribution. The algorithms available to simulate these processes are reviewed and discussed. Eleven 3-dimensional (3-D) Eulerian air quality models for PM are reviewed in terms of their formulation and past applications. Results of past performance evaluations of 3-D Eulerian PM models are presented. Currently, 24-hr average PM_2.5 concentrations appear to be predicted within 50% for urban-scale domains. However, there are compensating errors among individual particulate species. The lowest errors tend to be associated with SO₄ ^2-, while NO₃ ^-, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) typically show larger errors due to uncertainties in emissions inventories and the prediction of the secondary OC fraction. Further improvements and performance evaluations are recommended.