Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.     

Implications of geographic variability on Comparative Toxicity Potentials of Cu, Ni and Zn in freshwaters of Canadian ecoregions

Current methods of estimating potential environmental impacts of metals in hazard and Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) do not consider differences in chemistry and landscape properties between geographic sites. Here, we developed and applied a model for regional aquatic impact characterization of metals using an updated method for estimating environmental fate factor (FF), bioavailability factor (BF) and aquatic ecotoxicity factor (EF). We applied the model to analyze differences in Comparative Toxicity Potentials (CTPs) of Cu, Ni and Zn for 24 Canadian ecoregions. The combined impacts of regional variability in ambient chemistry (in particular DOC, pH and hardness) and landscape properties (water residence time) can change the CTPs of these metals for freshwater by up to three orders of magnitude and change the relative ranking of metal hazard between ecoregions. Variation among Canadian freshwater chemistries and landscape characteristics influence the FFs within two orders of magnitude, BFs within two orders of magnitude for Ni and Zn and four orders of magnitude for Cu, and EFs within one order of magnitude. Sensitivity of metal FFs to environmental parameters alone spans three orders of magnitude when a constant water chemistry was used for all ecoregions. These results indicate that application of regionalised metal CTPs can have a significant influence in the analysis of ecotoxicological impacts in the life cycle assessment of products and processes.     

Effects of C60 nanoparticle exposure on earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus) and implications for population dynamics

Effects of C₆₀ nanoparticles (nominal concentrations 0, 15.4 and 154 mg/kg soil) on mortality, growth and reproduction of Lumbricus rubellus earthworms were assessed. C₆₀ exposure had a significant effect on cocoon production, juvenile growth rate and mortality. These endpoints were used to model effects on the population level. This demonstrated reduced population growth rate with increasing C₆₀ concentrations. Furthermore, a shift in stage structure was shown for C₆₀ exposed populations, i.e. a larger proportion of juveniles. This result implies that the lower juvenile growth rate due to exposure to C₆₀ resulted in a larger proportion of juveniles, despite increased mortality among juveniles. Overall, this study indicates that C₆₀ exposure may seriously affect earthworm populations. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that juveniles were more sensitive to C₆₀ exposure than adults.     

Assessing the recovery potential of alpine moss-sedge heath: reciprocal transplants along a nitrogen deposition gradient

The potential of alpine moss-sedge heath to recover from elevated nitrogen (N) deposition was assessed by transplanting Racomitrium lanuginosum shoots and vegetation turfs between 10 elevated N deposition sites (8.2-32.9 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and a low N deposition site, Ben Wyvis (7.2 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). After two years, tissue N of Racomitrium shoots transplanted from higher N sites to Ben Wyvis only partially equilibrated to reduced N deposition whereas reciprocal transplants almost matched the tissue N of indigenous moss. Unexpectedly, moss shoot growth was stimulated at higher N deposition sites. However, moss depth and biomass increased in turfs transplanted to Ben Wyvis, apparently due to slower shoot turnover (suggested to result partly from decreased tissue C:N slowing decomposition), whilst abundance of vascular species declined. Racomitrium heath has the potential to recover from the impacts of N deposition; however, this is constrained by the persistence of enhanced moss tissue N contents.     

Soil nitrogen transformations under elevated atmospheric CO₂ and O₃ during the soybean growing season

We investigated the influence of elevated CO₂ and O₃ on soil N cycling within the soybean growing season and across soil environments (i.e., rhizosphere and bulk soil) at the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Elevated O₃ decreased soil mineral N likely through a reduction in plant material input and increased denitrification, which was evidenced by the greater abundance of the denitrifier gene nosZ. Elevated CO₂ did not alter the parameters evaluated and both elevated CO₂ and O₃ showed no interactive effects on nitrifier and denitrifier abundance, nor on total and mineral N concentrations. These results indicate that elevated CO₂ may have limited effects on N transformations in soybean agroecosystems. However, elevated O₃ can lead to a decrease in soil N availability in both bulk and rhizosphere soils, and this likely also affects ecosystem productivity by reducing the mineralization rates of plant-derived residues.     

Characterization of PM(2.5) collected during broadcast and slash-pile prescribed burns of predominately ponderosa pine forests in northern Arizona

Prescribed burning, in combination with mechanical thinning, is a successful method for reducing heavy fuel loads from forest floors and thereby lowering the risk of catastrophic wildfire. However, an undesirable consequence of managed fire is the production of fine particulate matter or PM(2.5) (particles ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter). Wood-smoke particulate data from 21 prescribed burns are described, including results from broadcast and slash-pile burns. All PM(2.5) samples were collected in situ on day 1 (ignition) or day 2. Samples were analyzed for mass, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), inorganic elements, organic carbon (OC), and elemental carbon (EC). Results were characteristic of low intensity, smoldering fires. PM(2.5) concentrations varied from 523 to 8357 μg m(-3) and were higher on day 1. PAH weight percents (19 PAHs) were higher in slash-pile burns (0.21 ± 0.08% OC) than broadcast burns (0.07 ± 0.03% OC). The major elements were K, Cl, S, and Si. OC and EC values averaged 66 ± 7 and 2.8 ± 1.4% PM(2.5), respectively, for all burns studied, in good agreement with literature values for smoldering fires.     

Stepwise calibration of the activated sludge model no. 1 at a partially denitrifying large wastewater treatment plant

Activated sludge modeling technology is maturing; however, currently, there exists a great need to increase its use in daily engineering practice worldwide. A good way for building the capacities of the practitioners is to promote good modeling practices and standardize the protocols. In this study, a systematic procedure was proposed to calibrate the Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1) at a large wastewater treatment plant, by which the model adequately predicted the quality of the effluent and the sludge quantities. A hydraulics model was set up and validated through a tracer test. The Vesilind settling constants were measured and combined with the default value of the flocculent zone settling parameter, to calibrate the clarifiers. A virtual anoxic tank was installed in the return activated sludge to mimic the denitrification occurring in the settlers. In ASM1, the calibrated parameters were only two influent chemical oxygen demand fractions and one kinetic constant (oxygen half-saturation coefficient).