Multi-scale sustainability evaluation of natural resource management systems: Quantifying indicators for different scales of analysis and their trade-offs using linear programming

The purposes of this paper are: (a) to describe a framework designed for multi-scale sustainability evaluation of Natural Resource Management Systems (NRMS), and (b) to illustrate its application for quantitative analysis using linear programming. The framework described here is intended to contribute to the operationalisation of the concept of sustainability by supporting the processes of design, evaluation and implementation of alternative NRMS at different scales. In this paper, Linear Programming is used for the quantitative analysis of indicators and their trade-offs; using a schematised example, the basic characteristics of the Multi-scale Multiple Goal Linear Programming (M-MGLP) method are described. In M-MGLP, indicators pertaining to different scales of analysis can be set as objectives or constraints for the optimisation. In this way, stakeholders interacting in a specific region can be made aware of the consequences of alternative NRMS in terms of the different indicators at the same scale and/or for indicators at other scales of analysis. The paper ends with a discussion of the main strengths and limitations of the framework and, specifically, of linear programming.     

Marsh macrophyte responses to inundation anticipate impacts of sea-level rise and indicate ongoing drowning of North Carolina marshes

In situ persistence of coastal marsh habitat as sea level rises depends on whether macrophytes induce compensatory accretion of the marsh surface. Experimental planters in two North Carolina marshes served to expose two dominant macrophyte species to six different elevations spanning 0.75 m (inundation durations 0.4–99 %). Spartina alterniflora and Juncus roemerianus exhibited similar responses—with production in planters suggesting initial increases and then demonstrating subsequent steep declines with increasing inundation, conforming to a segment of the ecophysiological parabola. Projecting inundation levels experienced by macrophytes in the planters onto adjacent marsh platforms revealed that neither species occupied elevations associated with increasing production. Declining macrophyte production with rising seas reduces both bioaccumulation of roots below-ground and baffle-induced sedimentation above-ground. By occupying only descending portions of the parabola, macrophytes in central North Carolina marshes are responding to rising water levels by progressive declines in production, ultimately leading to marsh drowning.     

Is there really a green paradox?

In the absence of a CO₂ tax, the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of CO₂. Since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of CO₂ will decrease, the effect on global warming is unclear. Green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal, but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit CO₂ emissions. We establish these results by analyzing depletion of non-renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop, paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited. We also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non-renewable resource is owned by a monopolist. Finally, we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises, a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ, thus boosting green welfare. However, if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet, full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare.     

On the fine structure of the thermal bar front

The thermal bar—a hydrodynamic phenomenon, arising in natural basins due to successive changes of the water temperature across the temperature of maximum density (T_m, which is close to 4°C)—has been studied in laboratory experiments and by numerical simulations. The experiments were performed in a rectangular tank with an inclined bottom, filled with water with initial temperature T₀ < T_m and then heated at the surface. During the heating a basin-wide circulation develops, consisting of down-slope cascades in regions where T < T_m, a subsurface off-shore jet in the region where T > T_m, and a compensating flow at intermediate depths towards the shallow part of the tank, supplying both off-shore flows with waters from deeper regions. Analysis of the water temperature and density fields as well as the currents has revealed that the location of the convergence zone of the surface current (when formed) does not coincide with that of the Tm-isotherm. The thermal bar front is typically understood as a convergence zone near the 4°C-isotherm, formed due to the effect of cabbeling. Our experiments demonstrate, however, that the front is associated with the leading edge of the subsurface current. The increasing distance between the 4°C-isotherm and the subsurface jet has been recorded in the laboratory experiments. Numerical simulation results corroborate the laboratory experiments. A scaling analysis predicts the speed of propagation of this frontal zone to be U ~ [g × Δρ/ρ × H]^1/2, where H is the depth (increasing with time) of the upper thermo-active layer, ρ₀ a reference density, and Δρ is the characteristic horizontal density difference across the front. A combined analysis of laboratory, field and numerical data has corroborated this law.     

Isotopic fractionation between seawater and the shell of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scrobicularia plana</Emphasis> (Bivalvia) and its application for age validation

This study analyzed the isotopic profiles of four aragonitic shells of Scrobicularia plana in conjunction with measured seawater temperatures and salinities. Comparison of δ¹⁸O_SHELL with expected values revealed fractionation of δ¹⁸O in near equilibrium with the ambient environment. Growth cessation occurred between November and March. Carbonate deposition stopped when temperatures were <12°C. Analysis of δ¹³C_SHELL values suggested that carbon in the shell does not reflect the DIC in ambient water, likely due to the incorporation of metabolic carbon. An ontogenetic trend of increasing δ¹³C values over time was observed, likely related to changes in metabolic activity. Annual growth patterns were inferred from δ¹⁸O_SHELL profiles and compared with internal and external growth lines. Estimations of age based on external lines were unreliable, resulting in overestimation of age and underestimation of growth rates, likely due to the disturbance lines being wrongly identified as annual. Analysis of internal lines may lead to over- or underestimation of age and was more reliable in recent portions of the shell.     

The influence of anthropogenic and natural geochemical factors on urban soil quality variability: a comparison between Glasgow, UK and Aveiro, Portugal

As part of a harmonised assessment of urban soils (), we investigated the variability of metal content in soils from Aveiro (Portugal) and Glasgow (UK). Samples were collected from parks and other public open spaces in each city. Metal content (Al, Ca, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) and basic soil parameters (texture, CEC, pH, organic matter) were determined and data investigated using principal component analysis (PCA). The two cities differ in absolute levels of metal content reflecting industrial and historical development. Factors identified by PCA included anthropogenic (Cu, Pb, Zn), soil properties and geology, which explain variability when data were assessed based on metal content, soil properties and land use. This study highlights the contribution from geological background even in strongly urbanised environments.     

Hele-Shaw beach creation by breaking waves: a mathematics-inspired experiment

Fundamentals of nonlinear wave-particle interactions are studied experimentally in a Hele-Shaw configuration with wave breaking and a dynamic bed. To design this configuration, we determine, mathematically, the gap width which allows inertial flows to survive the viscous damping due to the side walls. Damped wave sloshing experiments compared with simulations confirm that width-averaged potential-flow models with linear momentum damping are adequately capturing the large scale nonlinear wave motion. Subsequently, we show that the four types of wave breaking observed at real-world beaches also emerge on Hele-Shaw laboratory beaches, albeit in idealized forms. Finally, an experimental parameter study is undertaken to quantify the formation of quasi-steady beach morphologies due to nonlinear, breaking waves: berm or dune, beach and bar formation are all classified. Our research reveals that the Hele-Shaw beach configuration allows a wealth of experimental and modelling extensions, including benchmarking of forecast models used in the coastal engineering practice, especially for shingle beaches.     

Residues of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in aquatic environment and risk assessment along Shaying River,China

Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) are pesticides with global scale ubiquity, persistence and bioaccumulation, which leave long-term residuals in the water body. OCPs’ high toxicity poses significant threats to human health and aquatic biodiversity, making assessment of OCPs’ impact on aquatic ecology and human health urgently necessary. In this research, the presence of 16 OCPs in surface water and groundwater along Shaying River, China, as well as OCPs concentration correlations, was investigated at 24 selected sampling sites. At the same time, the ecological risk and human carcinogenic risk were also analyzed by risk quotient method and USEPA’s Risk Assessment Guidance, respectively. Results showed that the total concentration of OCPs ranged from 21.0 to 61.4 ng L^?1 in groundwater, and 12.3–77.5 ng L^?1 in surface water. Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCHs) and heptachlor were the prominent contaminants in groundwater, which indicated their use in the recent past and confirmed their persistence. The α-HCH/γ-HCH ratios in groundwater confirmed that γ-HCH (lindane) was used as main substitute of technical HCH in the study area. The correlation analysis illustrated that δ-HCH and γ-HCH played a dominant role in HCHs residue. Heptachlor and α-HCH, as well as endosulfan and heptachlor epoxide, had a strongly significant positive correlation, suggesting an associated usage of the two pair OCPs. An extremely high ecological risk for aquatic organism was observed for γ-HCH, heptachlor and dieldrin, while the carcinogenic risks posed by the selected OCPs in surface water and groundwater were all acceptable.     

Simulation of herbicide impacts on a plant community: comparing model predictions of the plant community model IBC-grass to empirical data

Background

Semi-natural plant communities such as field boundaries play an important ecological role in agricultural landscapes, e.g., provision of refuge for plant and other species, food web support or habitat connectivity. To prevent undesired effects of herbicide applications on these communities and their structure, the registration and application are regulated by risk assessment schemes in many industrialized countries. Standardized individual-level greenhouse experiments are conducted on a selection of crop and wild plant species to characterize the effects of herbicide loads potentially reaching off-field areas on non-target plants. Uncertainties regarding the protectiveness of such approaches to risk assessment might be addressed by assessment factors that are often under discussion. As an alternative approach, plant community models can be used to predict potential effects on plant communities of interest based on extrapolation of the individual-level effects measured in the standardized greenhouse experiments. In this study, we analyzed the reliability and adequacy of the plant community model IBC-grass (individual-based plant community model for grasslands) by comparing model predictions with empirically measured effects at the plant community level.

Results

We showed that the effects predicted by the model IBC-grass were in accordance with the empirical data. Based on the species-specific dose responses (calculated from empirical effects in monocultures measured 4 weeks after application), the model was able to realistically predict short-term herbicide impacts on communities when compared to empirical data.

Conclusion

The results presented in this study demonstrate an approach how the current standard greenhouse experiments—measuring herbicide impacts on individual-level—can be coupled with the model IBC-grass to estimate effects on plant community level. In this way, it can be used as a tool in ecological risk assessment.