A pattern-oriented modelling approach to simulating populations of grey partridge

A number of wildlife species including the grey partridge (Perdix perdix) have shown dramatic post-war population declines. Multiple drivers have been proposed as reasons for the declines, for example agrochemical use and intensification of agricultural practices, climate, predation, and changes in landscape structure. These drivers may interact in non-linear ways and are inherently spatio-temporal in nature. Therefore models used to investigate mechanisms should be spatio-temporal, of proper scale, and have a high degree of biological realism. Here we describe the development and testing of an agent-based model (ABM) of grey partridge using a well documented pre-decline historical data set in conjunction with a pattern-oriented modelling (POM) approach. Model development was an iterative process of defining performance criteria, testing model behaviour, and reformulating as necessary to emulate system properties whilst ensuring that internal mechanisms were biologically realistic. The model was documented using ODdox, a new protocol for describing large agent-based models. Parameter fitting in the model was achieved to within ±2% accuracy for 15 out of 17 field data patterns used, and within 5% for the remaining two. Tests of interactions between input parameters showed that 62% of parameter pairs tested had significant interactions underlining the complex nature of the model structure. Sensitivity analysis identified chick mortality as being the most sensitive factor, followed by adult losses to hunting and adult overwinter mortality, agreeing in general with previous partridge models. However, the ABM used here could separate individual drivers, providing a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms behind population regulation, and allowing factors to be compared directly. The ABM used is rich in output signals allowing detailed testing and refinement of the model. This approach is particularly suited to systems such as the partridge system where data for comparison to model outputs is readily available. Despite the accurate fit between historical data and model output, making use of the predictive power of the approach the model requires further calibration and testing under modern field conditions.     

A Voronoi diagram based population model for social species of wildlife

A population model is presented that accounts for spatial structure within habitat patches. It is designed for social species of wildlife that form social group home ranges that are much smaller than patch size. The model represents social group home ranges by Voronoi regions that tessellate a patch to form a Voronoi diagram. Neighbouring social groups are linked with habitat-confined shortest paths and form a dispersal network. The model simulates population dynamics and makes use of Voronoi diagrams and dispersal networks as a spatial component. It then produces density maps as outputs. These are maps that show predicted animal densities across the patches of a landscape. A construction procedure for the particular Voronoi diagram type used by the model is described. As a test case, the model is run for the squirrel glider (Petaurus norfolcensis), a small arboreal marsupial native to Australia. A time series of density maps are produced that show squirrel glider density changing across a landscape through time.     

COVID-19: how a self-monitoring checklist can empower early intervention and slow disease progression

The SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus pandemic has revealed many scientific, social, and institutional challenges required to improve the health and wellbeing of individuals stricken by this disease. While organizations and governing institutions have risen to the task to concurrently prepare for and respond to this pandemic under conditions of high uncertainty and extreme pressure, another important aspect of this viral infection deserves attention and is not being fully considered, that is early intervention strategies and structured tools for individuals who test positive for the virus and begin developing symptoms. For those whose infection is progressing, we describe the potential benefits of a self-monitoring tool for use in combination with physician directed early medical interventions to slow COVID-19 progression.

     

Ecological literacy and socio-demographics: who are the most eco-literate in our community,and why?

Ecological literacy is founded upon knowledge and understanding about how the ecological systems of the Earth function and support life. A widespread concern that levels of ecological literacy within many contemporary human communities are inadequate to enable effective decision-making about sustainable ways of living led to a rigorous and carefully designed assessment of over 1000 South Australian adults from diverse sectors including industry, government, nongovernment, business and community organisations. This assessment tested for local and global knowledge, including an understanding of the interconnection of natural systems with human society. Quantitative analyses revealed significant relationships between scores and a range of socio-demographic characteristics. Scores varied significantly with gender, age, education, employment, place of growing up and time spent in South Australia (SA). Highest average scores were found in males, middle-age groups, the most highly educated, those with science-related educational backgrounds, those working in environment-related fields, those who grew up in small town environments rather than in large towns or cities and in those who had spent more than 10 years in SA. These findings contribute to a broader study of factors associated with ecologically literate individuals and groups within the western and industrialised adult community of SA. They form a valuable foundation on which to build efforts to further understand and develop ecological literacy within our citizenry and governing bodies.     

Human drivers,biophysical changes,and climatic variation affecting contemporary cropping proportions in the northern prairie of the U.S

Grassland to cropland conversion in the northern prairie of the United States has been a topic of recent land use change studies. Within this region more corn and soybeans are grown now (2017) than in the past, but most studies to date have not examined multi-decadal trends and the synergistic web of socio-ecological driving forces involved, opting instead for short-term analyses and easily targeted agents of change. This paper examines the coalescing of biophysical and socioeconomic driving forces that have brought change to the agricultural landscape of this region between 1980 and 2013. While land conversion has occurred, most of the region’s cropland in 2013 had been previously cropped by the early 1980s. Furthermore, the agricultural conditions in which crops were grown during those three decades have changed considerably because of non-biophysical alterations to production practices and changing agricultural markets. Findings revealed that human drivers played more of a role in crop change than biophysical changes, that blending quantitative and qualitative methods to tell a more complete story of crop change in this region was difficult because of the synergistic characteristics of the drivers involved, and that more research is needed to understand how farmers make crop choice decisions.     

Mining taxation issues for the future

During the 1970s and 1980s the main concern of mining policies was to attract investment whilst at the same time balancing the interests of governments and companies. By the turn of the century a new spectrum of challenges faces governments and companies in the mining sector. The need for fiscal regimes to adapt to price cyclicity is to some extent superseded by the requirement that they adapt to a long-term decline of metal prices. The growing importance of environmental and community affairs in the mining sector will force governments to design coherent and comprehensive tax regulations to complement the wide range of initiatives being taken in these fields. Finally, the age-old problem of tax collection continues to raise its head in transition and developing economies.     

DEVELOPING CONFIDENCE IN CONCRETE REVETMENT PRODUCTS FOR BANK STABILIZATION1

ABSTRACT: There is a need to provide flood protection while maintaining stable bed and bank conditions in the riverine system, to stabilize earth embankment dams and spiliways, and to stabilize highway or railway embankments and levee systems. One approach to providing erosion protection and stabilization of channel banks, embankments and spill conveyances is with articulated concrete block systems. Numerous articulated concrete block systems are available for bank stabilization. However, prior to field installations few means are available to evaluate how well these block systems perform. To assist the designer in predicting site specific suitability, a series of hydraulic testing protocols have been developed to analyze block system performance. Two articulated block system testing protocols are presented to indicate how block hydraulic characteristics may be determined and provide performance assurance to both the designer and the owner.     

WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES,CLIMATE CHANGE,AND PLANNING: Views of Community Water System Managers in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna River Basin1

ABSTRACT: This research examines the sensitivity and vulnerability of community water systems (CWSs) to weather and climate in the Pennsylvania portion of the Susquehanna River Basin. Three key findings emerge from a survey of 506 CWS managers. First, CWSs are sensitive to extreme weather and climate, but that sensitivity is determined more by type of system than system size. CWSs that rely partly or wholly on surface water face more disruptions than do groundwater systems. Larger systems have more problems with flooding, and size is not a significant determinant of outages from storms or disruptions from droughts. Second, CWS managers are unsure about global warming. Few managers dismiss global warming; most think global warming could be a problem but are unwilling to consider it in their planning activities until greater scientific certainty exists. Third, the nature of the CWS, its sensitivity to weather and climate, and projected risks from weather and climate are insignificant determinants of how managers plan. Experienced, full-time managers are more likely to consider future weather and climate scenarios in their planning, while inexperienced and part-time managers are less likely to do so. Implications of these findings include support for efforts to move away from surface water, for clear communication of climate change information, and for the hiring and retention of full-time professional CWS managers.     

Centrifugal Bioreactors and Their Application in Remediation

A new approach to the maintenance of large microbial populations for bioremediation purposes has been developed in which a centrifugal bioreactor is used to immobilize microbial populations at extremely high density. The cells are ordered into a three‐dimensional array through which wastewater or groundwater volumes may be flowed, unimpeded by frits or screens. The process methodology is independent of the type, shape, or viability of the individual cells immobilized and, thus, may be adapted to many different bioremediation needs. The utilization of this new process has been explored for three different types of remediation: the removal of heavy metals from wastewater, the aerobic degradation of methyl‐tert‐butyl ether (MTBE), and the anaerobic reduction of nitrate to nitrogen gas. This article discusses the use of centrifugal bioreactors and their application in remediation. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.