Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Nutrient baselines of Cerrado low-order streams: comparing natural and impacted sites in Central Brazil

The aquatic systems responsible for water supply in the Brazilian Federal District (FD) have been threatened by anthropogenic pressures, especially considering the expressive demographic increase in the region during the last decades. The purposes of this research were: (a) to assess the water quality in streams located in the FD by monitoring physical–chemical variables; (b) to define baselines for these variables among different ecological status categories. The 14 investigated streams were sampled between 2006 and 2009, in the dry (August–September, 2006, 2008, 2009) and rainy (March–April, 2008, 2009) seasons. All sampling sites were classified in four categories (“very impacted”, “impacted”, “in transition” and “natural”) using an adaptation of a rapid habitat assessment protocol. Differences in water quality among sites were generally well predicted in the four ecological status categories defined by the protocol, which showed a gradient in nutrient concentrations from reference sites classified as “natural” (medians: electrical conductivity?=?7.3 μS cm^?1; nitrate?=?0.040 mg L^?1; ammonium?=?0.039 mg L^?1; soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP)?=?<0.001 mg L^?1; total phosphorus (TP)?=?0.006 mg L^?1; ) to those classified as “very impacted” (medians: electrical conductivity?=?87.7 μS cm^?1; nitrate?=?0.247 mg L^?1; ammonium?=?0.219 mg L^?1; SRP?=?0.010 mg L^?1; TP?=?0.035 mg L^?1). Point sources inputs were the main factor for water quality deterioration. The nutrient baselines reported were relatively low when compared to data collected from reference areas in Brazil (e.g., São Paulo State) or temperate regions, especially for TP.     

Using process-based models to filter out natural variability in observed concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in river water

Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.     

Female seed beetles, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Callosobruchus maculatus,</Emphasis> remate for male-supplied water rather than ejaculate nutrition

Female seed beetles, Callosobruchus maculatus, mate multiply even though association with males and copulations carry costs, such as injury to the genital tract. Multiple mating (polyandry) may, however, offset these costs through the acquisition of food and water, two material benefits hypothesized to be obtained from the large ejaculates produced by males. The material benefits hypothesis can be tested by increasing female access to nutrients and water, with the prediction that female mating frequency will decrease as copulation is no longer required to derive these materials. Females were given water, 5% sugar–water or baker’s yeast, and were compared with females deprived of these. We presented females with virgin males daily for 8 days and recorded female mating frequency, survivorship, and fecundity. Females provided with water and sugar–water decreased mating frequency. Thus, water, rather than nutrients in the ejaculate, appears to be important to females of this species. In addition, both life span and fecundity were extended for females in the sugar–water and water treatments. Since water is scarce in the arid environment in which this species is found, we conclude that polyandry provides material benefits to females that may offset some of the costs of associating with males.     

A new approach to in-situ determination of roadside particle emission factors of individual vehicles under conventional driving conditions

A method for continuous on-road measurements of particle number emissions for both diesel- and petrol-fuelled vehicles is presented. The setup allows the determination of particle number emission factors on an individual vehicle basis by the simultaneous measurement of CO₂ and particle concentrations. As an alternative to previous measurements on the kerbside, the sample is taken directly in the street, with the advantage of sampling in-situ within the exhaust plumes of passing vehicles, allowing the separation of the individual high-concentration plumes. The method was tested in two experiments that were conducted in the Gothenburg area. In the first study, which was performed at an urban roadside, we were able to determine particle emission factors from individual vehicles in a common car fleet passing the measurement site. The obtained emission factors were of the same order of magnitude (between 1.4 × 10¹² and 1.8 × 10¹⁴ particles km^?1) as values published in the recent literature for light duty vehicles. An additional on-road experiment was conducted at a rural road with four light duty reference vehicles (three of them petrol-powered and one diesel-powered) at driving speeds of 50 and 70 km h^?1, realised with different engine speeds. The results of the traffic emission studies show that the method is applicable provided that instruments with an adequate dynamic range are used and that the traffic is not too dense. In addition, the variability in particle emissions for a specified driving condition was estimated.     

Forest Perception and Knowledge of Hikers and Mountain Bikers in Two Different Areas in Northwestern Switzerland

Recreational activities can have major impacts on vegetation and wildlife in frequently visited forests. We assessed forest perception and knowledge (state, functions, and species diversity) among hikers and mountain bikers in a frequently visited, seminatural suburban recreation forest (Muttenz) and in a more distantly situated, naturally grown excursion forest (Wasserfallen) in northwestern Switzerland. In all, 239 hikers and 126 mountain bikers were interviewed. Mountain bikers in both forests and hikers in the more intensely used recreation forest at Muttenz assessed the state of the forest less optimistically and showed a higher awareness of the negative impact of recreational activities on the flora and fauna than hikers at Wasserfallen. Furthermore, mountain bikers seemed aware of the social conflicts caused by their activity, since they appreciated neutral or positive encounters with other forest visitors. In contrast, 57% of hikers at Muttenz reported on negative experiences with other forest visitors, particularly with mountain bikers. In general, the interviewees ecological and biological forest knowledge (forest type and function, species diversity) was rather high. A large proportion was aware of the pros and cons of different forest conditions for plants and animals, and could name or recognize at least some plant and/or animal species typical for the visited forest. The forest knowledge was neither influenced by the type of recreational activity carried out nor by any aspect of forest visit behavior (frequency and duration of forest visits, means of transportation and travel distance to forest). However, the interviewees forest knowledge was influenced by their age and educational level.     

Wax perception in honeybees: contact is not necessary

In social insects, much progress has been made in identifying variations in the cuticular signatures of sexes, castes, kin and reproductive status. In contrast to this, we still do not know how the receivers perceive these recognition cues. This study was designed to investigate whether honeybees use contact-chemosensory or olfactory sensilla to perceive wax components. To answer this question in a behavioral assay, we combined classical conditioning of the proboscis extension reaction and a recently established method using zinc sulfate to selectively block antennal contact-chemosensory sensilla. Comparison of the responses to sucrose, wax and geraniol before and after antennal zinc sulfate treatment revealed that the sucrose response is lost after treatment but the responses to wax and geraniol are maintained. As sucrose is perceived by the contact-chemosensory sensilla, the retention of the wax response indicates that contact-chemosensory sensilla are not necessary for wax perception.     

The Relationship of Ecosystem Management to NEPA and Its Goals

/ The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) was intended to promote a systematic, comprehensive, interdisciplinary approach to planning and decisionmaking, including the integration of the natural and social sciences and the design arts. NEPA critics have cited three key shortcomings in its implementation: (1) a lack of engagement with the NEPA process early in the planning process through interdisciplinary collaboration; (2) a lack of rigorous science and the incorporation of ecological principles and techniques; and (3) a lack of emphasis on the Act's substantive goals and objectives. In recent years and independent of NEPA, a policy of ecosystem management has been developed, which represents a fundamental change from a fragmented, incremental planning and management approach to a holistic, comprehensive, interdisciplinary land and resource management effort. We postulate that by incorporating ecosystem management principles in their planning and decisionmaking, federal agencies can address the shortcomings in NEPA implementation and move closer to NEPA's intent. A case analysis of EISs prepared by the USDA Forest Service before and after adopting an ecosystem management approach supports our hypothesis.