Satellite remote sensing as a tool in Lahar disaster management

At least 40,000 deaths have been attributed to historic lahars (volcanic mudflows). The most recent lahar disaster occurred in 1998 at Casita volcano, Nicaragua, claiming over 2,500 lives. Lahars can cover large areas and be highly destructive, and constitute a challenge for disaster management. With infrastructure affected and access frequently impeded, disaster management can benefit from the synoptic coverage provided by satellite imagery. This potential has been recognisedfor other types of natural disasters, but limitations are also known. Dedicated satellite constellations for disaster response and management have been proposed as one solution. Here we investigate the utility of currently available and forthcoming optical and radar sensors as tools in lahar disaster management. Applied to the Casita case, we find that imagery available at the time could not have significantly improved disaster response. However, forthcoming satellites, especially radar, will improve the situation, reducing the benefit of dedicated constellations.     

IMPLICATIONS OF A DRAWDOWN OF THE SNAKE-COLUMBIA RWER ON BARGE TRANSPORTATION1

ABSTRACT: The listing of the Snake-Columbia River salmon under the Endangered species Cut will lead to a set of river management changes aimed at species recovery. One measure almost certain to be implemented is a periodic river drawdown. A drawdown will speed fish migration downriver but will also temporarily close the river to barge transportation. Grain shippers in the region rely on the barge carriage to move a significant share of annual production to export elevators on the Lower Columbia. A number of other bulk commodities utilize barges as well. This study outlines the aggregate and distributional economic implications of a suspension of barge transportation resulting from a river drawdown.     

Song repertoires and reproductive success in the great reed warbler Acrocephalus arundinaceus

Summary The relationship between song repertoire size and reproductive success was investigated in a population of great reed warblers breeding in southern Germany. No correlations were found between repertoire size and various measures of male quality such as weight, wing length and age. Repertoire size was not correlated with territory size, but showed strong correlations with some measures of territory quality such as the amount of high quality reeds and reed-water interface. Repertoire size and territory quality were both correlated with various measures of reproductive success. Partial correlation analysis revealed that territory quality had a more significant effect upon the number of females obtained, but that repertoire size had a more significant effect upon the number of young produced.     

Conflict and Impacts of Divers and Anglers in a Marine Park

The New South Wales State Government (Australia) gazetted the Jervis Bay Marine Park (JBMP) in 1998. During the preparation of the draft zoning plan in 2000, societal data on two conflicting park user groups—recreational scuba divers and fishers (anglers)—was collected. While conflict resolution was a plan priority, other factors, such as cumulative environmental impacts of users and protection for the critically endangered grey nurse shark (Carcharias taurus), further complicated planning. Both scuba diving and angling are primary summer activities and are disproportionately concentrated around the headlands of the bay. Furthermore, shore based game-fishing was concentrated on the northern headland, where the conflict was centered. However, when the exact locations of divers and anglers were determined, there was a partial partitioning of the available space, with only a small contested overlap. To resolve conflict and maximize positive environmental outcomes, a sanctuary zone and no-anchoring zone option in the draft zoning plan was sought to formalize this partition. The human dimension data proved valuable in guiding environmental management in this politically volatile situation. A baseline study conducted 11 years previously was also used to gain a limited perspective on change in user numbers. Comparison between study periods indicated dive numbers had remained similar, while the number of dive charter trips was significantly less. The numbers of anglers, for the four months compared, had doubled and tripled. The actual data used to inform management is presented and the limitations of this best available data approach are discussed.     

ESCHERICHIA COLI SURVIVAL IN MANTLED KARST SPRINGS AND STREAMS,NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OZARKS,USA1

Recent studies indicate fecal coliform bacterial concentrations, including Escherichia coli (E. coli), characteristically vary by several orders of magnitude, depending on the hydrology of storm recharge and discharge. E. coli concentrations in spring water increase rapidly during the rising limb of a storm hydrograph, peak prior to or coincident with the peak of the storm pulse, and decline rapidly, well before the recession of the storm hydrograph. This suggests E. coli are associated with resuspension of sediment during the onset of turbulent flow, and indicates viable bacteria reside within the spring and stream sediments. E. coli inoculated chambers were placed in spring and stream environments within the mantled karst of northwest Arkansas to assess long term (> 75 days) E. coli viability. During the 75‐day study, a 4‐log die‐off of E. coli was observed for chambers placed in the Illinois River, and a 5‐log die‐off for chambers placed in Copperhead Spring. Extrapolation of the regression line for each environment indicates E. coli concentration would reach 1 most probable number (MPN)/100 g sediment at Copperhead Spring in about 105 days, and about 135 days in the Illinois River, based on a starting inoculation of 2.5 × 107 MPN E. coli/100 g of sediment. These in situ observations indicate it is possible for E. coli to survive in these environments for at least four months with no fresh external inputs.     

Physiological and developmental effects of O3 on cottonwood growth in urban and rural sites.

Previously we found that cloned cottonwood saplings (Populus deltoides) grew twice as large in New York, New York, USA, compared to surrounding rural environments and that soils, temperature, CO2, nutrient deposition, and microclimatic variables could not account for the greater urban plant biomass. Correlations between final season biomass and cumulative O3 exposures, combined with twofold growth reductions in an open-top chamber experiment provided strong evidence that higher cumulative O3 exposures in rural sites reduced growth in the country. Here, we assess the field gas exchange, growth and development, and allocation responses underlying the observed growth differences and compare them with isolated O3 responses documented in the open-top chamber experiment. Cottonwoods showed no visible foliar injury, reduced photosynthesis of recently expanded foliage, early leaf senescence, protective reduction in stomatal conductance, or compensatory allocation to shoot relative to root biomass for either the chamber or field experiment. Instead, O3-impacted chamber plants had significantly higher conductance and reduced photosynthesis of older foliage that led to reduced leaf area production and a twofold biomass reduction in the absence of visible injury. Rural-grown field plants showed the same pattern of significantly higher conductance in the absence of concomitant increases in photosynthesis that was indicative of a loss of stomatal control. Incremental changes in foliar production were also significantly inversely related to fluctuations in ambient O3 exposures. The similarity in biomass, gas exchange, phenological, and allocation responses between chamber and field experiments indicate that mechanisms accounting for reduced growth at rural sites were consistent with those in the open-top chamber O3 experiment. This study shows the limitation of visible symptoms as a sole diagnostic factor for documenting detrimental O3 impacts and points toward a new approach to show O3 impacts when visible injury is not present. Namely, O3-impacted vegetation showed an unusual inverse relationship of increased conductance with lower photosynthesis of older foliage that was indicative of a loss of stomatal control. This increased stomatal conductance of O3-impacted vegetation accentuates pollutant flux into affected foliage and has important implications for system water balance during warm, dry portions of the growing season when O3 concentrations are highest.     

Spatial and temporal analysis of vegetation change in agricultural landscapes: A case study of two brigalow (Acacia harpophylla) landscapes in Queensland, Australia

The majority of landscapes around the world have been modified or transformed by human activities to meet the needs of human societies. The loss of native vegetation for agricultural development affects the sustainability of growing proportion of the world's ecosystems. Factors such as land tenure, roads and agricultural intensification, together with biophysical properties, have been cited as drivers of deforestation. This paper combined analysis of the historical drivers of change with analysis of the trends of deforestation since 1945 in two brigalow landscapes (100,000 ha) in sub-tropical Australia. A selection of these drivers were then applied at a property-level (1000 ha) to test their influence on native vegetation retention. Regression trees were used to identify significant human drivers and biophysical properties, and then a generalised linear modelling approach was used to quantify the effect of these factors on the proportion of remnant native vegetation. Results showed that until the mid-20th century, government policies to intensify settlement did not result in increased agricultural production, but since this time, landscape change has been rapid, and has particularly affected ecosystems on fertile clay soils. Although socio-economic factors were critical in driving deforestation, after 60 years of agricultural intensification by far the most significant explanatory variable determining the proportion of native vegetation retained at a property scale was the suitability of the soil for agriculture. Property size was an important secondary influence. The results were not, by and large, consistent with other studies of landscape change and suggest that generalised principles explaining deforestation may be elusive. Solutions to the problem of over-clearance of native vegetation, therefore, need to be tailored to the specific regional situations encountered.     

Natal male baboon rank rises and successful challenges to resident alpha males

Summary After an interval (X = 6 months), high ranking male chacma baboons (Papio cynocephalus ursinus) lose their status to immigrants. Attainment of alpha rank by immigrants is a qualitatively different process from thestepwise increase in status noted in linear dominance hierarchies. The departing rank of natal emigrants was 5.4, while the first measured rank, shortly after transfer into a new troop, was 1.5. Abrupt rises to alpha rank involve direct challenges to the current alpha male. Fourteen of 19 prime immigrants attained alpha rank at first transfer. Rank rises may result if individuals forego contests, retaining lower hierarchical positions in their natal troop to avoid the costs of conflict prior to natal emigration. In this population some males do breed in their natal troops without differing from immigrants in their reprodocutive success. Five males that rose to high rank within their natal troops also made rapid rank rises to the top of the hierarchy. Withholding of aggressive efforts in natal troops to avoid inbreeding thus is not an adequate explanation of the rank rises we observe in this population. The high probability of successful challenges can be explained by assuming an asymmetry in costs of losing (resource value) to tenured alpha males or a greater fighting ability of challengers. Offprint requests to: W.J. Hamilton III