Uncertainty in epidemiology and health risk and impact assessment

Environmental epidemiology and health risk and impact assessment have long grappled with problems of uncertainty in data and their relationships. These uncertainties have become more challenging because of the complex, systemic nature of many of the risks. A clear framework defining and quantifying uncertainty is needed. Three dimensions characterise uncertainty: its nature, its location and its level. In terms of its nature, uncertainty can be both intrinsic and extrinsic. The former reflects the effects of complexity, sparseness and nonlinearity; the latter arises through inadequacies in available observational data, measurement methods, sampling regimes and models. Uncertainty occurs in three locations: conceptualising the problem, analysis and communicating the results. Most attention has been devoted to characterising and quantifying the analysis—a wide range of statistical methods has been developed to estimate analytical uncertainties and model their propagation through the analysis. In complex systemic risks, larger uncertainties may be associated with conceptualisation of the problem and communication of the analytical results, both of which depend on the perspective and viewpoint of the observer. These imply using more participatory approaches to investigation, and more qualitative measures of uncertainty, not only to define uncertainty more inclusively and completely, but also to help those involved better understand the nature of the uncertainties and their practical implications.     

Temporal and spatial trends in water quality of Lake Taihu,China: analysis from a north to mid-lake transect, 1991–2011

Interpretations of state and trends in lake water quality are generally based on measurements from one or more stations that are considered representative of the response of the lake ecosystem. The objective of this study is to examine how these interpretations may be influenced by station location in a large lake. We addressed this by analyzing trends in water quality variables collected monthly from eight monitoring stations along a transect from the central lake to the north in Lake Taihu (area about 2,338 km²), China, from October 1991 to December 2011. The parameters examined included chlorophyll a (Chl a), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (SD). The individual variables were increasingly poorly correlated among stations along the transect from the central lake to the north, particularly for Chl a and TP. The timing of peaks in individual variables was also dependent on station location, with spectral analysis revealing a peak at annual frequency for the central lake station but absence of, or much reduced signal, at this frequency for the near-shore northern station. Percentage annual change values for each of the four variables also varied with station and indicated general improvement in water quality at northern stations, particularly for TN, but little change or decline at central lake stations. Sediment resuspension and tributary nutrient loads were considered to be responsible for some of the variability among stations. Our results indicate that temporal trends in water quality may be station specific in large lakes and that calculated whole-lake trophic status trends or responses to management actions may be specific to the station(s) selected for monitoring and analysis. These results have important implications for efficient design of monitoring programs that are intended to integrate the natural spatial variability of large lakes.     

Examination of honeys and flowers as soil element indicators

Detection of soil element deficiencies is time consuming, requiring a major commitment for field work and analysis. Bees concentrate some elements in their honey which could allow soil element concentrations to be predicted without having to take large numbers of soil samples. We measured 14 element concentrations in soil, sunflower, acacia flower and honey samples from two different regions of Hungary. Across sites, the elements with significant correlation coefficients between honey and soil concentrations, in descending order of probability, were Cu > Ba >Sr = Ni > Zn > Mn = Pb >As. Bioconcentration from soil to honey was similar for areas with acacia and sunflower flowers. In the macroelements, it was the greatest for K, S and P and least for Mg and Na, and in the microelements, greatest for B, then Zn, then Cu, then As, Mo and Sr and least for Fe, Ba, Mn and Pb. It is concluded that in acacia and sunflower-growing regions, honey can give an accurate estimate of soil element concentrations for Cu and Ba and provides relevant information for Sr, Ni, Zn, Mn, Pb and As.     

Immobilization of mercury by pyrite (FeS2)

Elemental mercury (Hg⁰) is a metal with a number of atypical properties, which has resulted in its use in myriad anthropogenic processes. However, these same properties have also led to severe local subsurface contamination at many places where it has been used. As such, we studied the influence of various parameters on Hg(II) sorption onto pyrite (pH, time, Hg(II) concentration), a potential subsurface reactive barrier. Batch sorption studies revealed that total Hg(II) removal increases with both pH and time. X-ray absorption spectroscopy analysis showed that a transformation in the coordination environment at low pH occurred during aging over 2 weeks, to form an ordered monolayer of monodentate Hg-Cl complexes on pyrite. In column studies packed with pure quartz sand, the transport of Hg(II) was significantly retarded by the presence of a thin pyrite-sand reactive barrier, although dissolved oxygen inhibited Hg(II) sorption onto pyrite in the column.     

Trade union approach to control of toxic substances

Summary The paper deals with some of the problems associated with toxic substances in the work environment, it illustrates these by reference to case studies. It also looks at the involvement of Trade Unions in health and safety issues. It points out flaws and limitations of the present legislative measures; the need to detect toxic substances before they are introduced into the workplace. There is a strong argument for new procedures and regulations to control and license toxic substances; it sets out criteria advocated by Trade Unions towards achieving this. It shows how a whole new strategy has to be agreed to, a strategy that puts as its priority the health of the population as a whole.General Secretary of the Association of Technical and Managerial Staffs. A major Trade Union for scientist, technologists and technicians etc. in the UK.     

The socialization of union loyalty

The present study investigated the effects of a specific union socialization program on union attitudes and loyalty. Seventy-one apprentices undergoing a union-management training program were surveyed. Using linear structural relations modelling, the research found that union attitudes and training satisfaction were the most important predictors of loyalty to the union. Furthermore, attitudes to unions were related to the union socialization process and the transformational leadership characteristics of the socializing agents.     

Ice Shelf Microbial Ecosystems in the High Arctic and Implications for Life on Snowball Earth

 The Ward Hunt Ice Shelf (83°N, 74°W) is the largest remaining section of thick (>10 m) landfast sea ice along the northern coastline of Ellesmere Island, Canada. Extensive meltwater lakes and streams occur on the surface of the ice and are colonized by photosynthetic microbial mat communities. This High Arctic cryo-ecosystem is similar in several of its physical, biological and geochemical features to the McMurdo Ice Shelf in Antarctica. The ice-mats in both polar regions are dominated by filamentous cyanobacteria but also contain diatoms, chlorophytes, flagellates, ciliates, nematodes, tardigrades and rotifers. The luxuriant Ward Hunt consortia also contain high concentrations (10⁷–10⁸ cm^–2) of viruses and heterotrophic bacteria. During periods of extensive ice cover, such as glaciations during the Proterozoic, cryotolerant mats of the type now found in these polar ice shelf ecosystems would have provided refugia for the survival, growth and evolution of a variety of organisms, including multicellular eukaryotes. Received: 30 August 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 15 December 1999     

The long-term environmental behaviour of strontium and barium released from former mine workings in the granites of the Sunart region of Scotland, UK

The concentrations of strontium and barium have been measured in water, sediment and the shells of mussels (Mytilus edulis) from a river system in the Sunart region of Scotland, UK. The aim was to establish the fate and mobility of these elements, which are slowly being released from old mine workings on the Strontian granites. Enhanced strontium (1500-2000 microg l(-1) and 250-290 microg l(-1)) and barium concentrations (316 microg l(-1) and 83 microg l(-1)) were found in the waters originating from the two mine drains studied. Both element were also found at significant levels in the river sediments taken from the vicinity of each drainage site (Sr: 225 microg g(-1) and 120-125 microg g(-1); Ba: 1380 microg g(-1) and 126-170 microg g(-1)). The data suggests that the sediments are acting as a reservoir for these group II cations from where they become distributed throughout the river system. Strontium is found to be incorporated into the shells (3.16-3.46 microg g(-1)) and pearls (3.57 microg g(-1)) of the blue mussel, located at the estuarine margin some 10 km downstream, at values close to the maximum expected (3.3% by weight of the calcium content). The study presents a view of the fate of barium and strontium in a river system over a prolonged period of time. As such it provides valuable information for studies that seek to model the impact of the accidental release of barium and strontium (including the important radionuclide 90Sr) into the environment.     

The Missoula Valley semivolatile and volatile organic compound study: seasonal average concentrations

The city of Missoula is located in a high mountain valley (elevation 3200 ft.) in western Montana and contains one of the largest populations in the entire Rocky Mountain Region completely enclosed by mountains. During the 2000/2001 Missoula Valley Sampling Program, ambient levels of 61 semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) and 54 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were originally quantified before refining the analytical program to 28 of the most prominent SVOCs and VOCs found in the Missoula Valley airshed. These compounds were measured over 24-hr periods at two locations throughout an entire year. This study provides the first, comprehensive appraisal of the levels of SVOCs and VOCs measured simultaneously throughout all four seasons at two locations in the Missoula Valley, including those levels measured during the 2000 Montana wildfire season. Generally, SVOC levels were comparable between both sides of the Missoula Valley. However, there were nearly double the amount of VOCs measured at the more urban Boyd Park site compared with the rural Frenchtown sampling site, a result of the greater number of automobiles on the eastern side of the Valley. SVOCs and VOCs were measured at their highest levels of the sampling program during the winter. Forest fire smoke samples collected during the summer of 2000 showed significant increases in SVOC phenolic compounds, including phenol, 2-methylphenol, 4-methylphenol, and 2,4-dimethylphenol. Although there were modest increases in some of the other SVOCs and VOCs measured during the fire season, none of the increases were as dramatic as the phenolics.