Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks

Increased reliance on the Internet for critical infrastructure and the global nature of supply chains provides an opportunity for adversaries to leverage dependencies and gain access to vital infrastructure. Traditional approaches to assessing risk in the cyber domain, including estimation of impacts, fall short due to uncertainty in how interconnected systems react to cyber attack. This paper describes a method to represent the pathways of disruption propagation, evaluate the macroeconomic impact of cyber threats and aid in selecting among various cybersecurity policies. Based on state of the art agent-based modeling, multicriteria decision analysis, and macroeconomic modeling tools, this framework provides dynamic macroeconomic, demographic and fiscal insights regarding shocks caused by cyber attacks to the regional economy over time. The interlinkage of these models will provide a robust and adaptive system that allows policy makers to evaluate complex issues such as cybersecurity threats and their impacts on the geopolitical, social, environmental, and macroeconomic landscape.     

Value of information analysis: the state of application

The value of information (VoI) is a decision analytic method for quantifying the potential benefit of additional information in the face of uncertainty. This paper reviews the prevalence of VoI applications reported in the peer-reviewed literature from the years 1990–2011. We categorize papers’ applications across the types of uncertainties considered, modeling choices, and contexts of social importance (such as health care and environmental science). We obtain and analyze statistics on the range of applications and identify trends and patterns in them, and conclude with an interpretation of what these mean for researchers and practitioners as they pursue new efforts. Key results include a substantial increase over the last 20 years in published papers utilizing VoI, particularly in the medical field. Nineteen trends in VoI applications from the period of 1990–2000 to 2001–2011 were found to be at least weakly significant. Beyond simple trends, some characteristics of VoI usage depend on the area of application, and in some cases, certain sets of characteristics tend to be found together.     

Use of dimethyl sulfoxide as solubilization agent in the detection of 2,3,7,8-TCDD by radioimmunoassay

Immunoassays are potentially valuable tools for use in screening environmental samples for a broad range of contaminants, such as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs). The performance of the radioimmunoassay (RIA) for PCDDs was characterized using 4 solubilization systems: Cutscum, Triton, horse serum, and dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO). The DMSO based assay appeared to perform best at low 2,3,7,8-TCDD levels. The effects of assay incubation time and hapten storage conditions on the DMSO based assay were assessed. The separation of bound from unbound radioactivity was accelerated without adversely affecting assay performance. Further assay development through the use of an alternative labelled hapten is considered.     

The intersection of food security and biodiversity conservation: a review

Regional Environmental Change - Food security and biodiversity conservation are key challenges of the twenty-first century. While traditionally these two challenges were addressed separately,...     

Local authorities and climate protection in the European union: Putting subsidiarity into practice?

Although intrinsically a global environmental concern, the climate change issue has a number of implications for local authorities. Within the European Union (EU), the remit of local authorities in—-for abatement policies—the crucial areas of energy and transport policy varies considerably, as does their commitment to environmental action more generally. This paper examines the role of local authorities in climate protection within a framework of global, EU and national action, through examples of local strategies from Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK. The paper finds positive instances of action in all countries, but points to unsympathetic policy frameworks both at national and EU level, such as budget constraints imposed on local authorities, the pursuit of low energy prices combined with a resistance to impose carbon taxes, a lack of energy efficiency standards and insufficient support for public transport.