Incorporating known sources of uncertainty to determine precautionary harvests of saltwater crocodiles.

It has been demonstrated repeatedly that the degree to which regulation operates and the magnitude of environmental variation in an exploited population will together dictate the type of sustainable harvest achievable. Yet typically, harvest models fail to incorporate uncertainty in the underlying dynamics of the target population by assuming a particular (unknown) form of endogenous control. We use a novel approach to estimate the sustainable yield of saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) populations from major river systems in the Northern Territory, Australia, as an example of a system with high uncertainty. We used multimodel inference to incorporate three levels of uncertainty in yield estimation: (1) uncertainty in the choice of the underlying model(s) used to describe population dynamics, (2) the error associated with the precision and bias of model parameter estimation, and (3) environmental fluctuation (process error). We demonstrate varying strength of evidence for density regulation (1.3-96.7%) for crocodiles among 19 river systems by applying a continuum of five dynamical models (density-independent with and without drift and three alternative density-dependent models) to time series of density estimates. Evidence for density dependence increased with the number of yearly transitions over which each river system was monitored. Deterministic proportional maximum sustainable yield (PMSY) models varied widely among river systems (0.042-0.611), and there was strong evidence for an increasing PMSY as support for density dependence rose. However, there was also a large discrepancy between PMSY values and those produced by the full stochastic simulation projection incorporating all forms of uncertainty, which can be explained by the contribution of process error to estimates of sustainable harvest. We also determined that a fixed-quota harvest strategy (up to 0.2K, where K is the carrying capacity) reduces population size much more rapidly than proportional harvest (the latter strategy requiring temporal monitoring of population size to adjust harvest quotas) and greatly inflates the risk of resource depletion. Using an iconic species recovering from recent extreme overexploitation to examine the potential for renewed sustainable harvest, we have demonstrated that incorporating major forms of uncertainty into a single quantitative framework provides a robust approach to modeling the dynamics of exploited populations.     

LAND USE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING: AN APPLICATION IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONE1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to describe a land use and environmental planning model. Map overlays were used for analyzing and aggregating economic, social, and environmental data. Various land use categories were evaluated using a numerical scoring system. These scores were then used to assist in the development of land use regulations in a coastal county in South Carolina.     

Age-related shifts in the diet composition of southern elephant seals expand overall foraging niche

Southern elephant seals are important apex predators in a highly variable and unpredictable marine environment. In the presence of resource limitation, foraging behaviours evolve to reduce intra-specific competition increasing a species’ overall probability of successful foraging. We examined the diet of 141 (aged 1–3 years) juvenile southern elephant seals to test the hypotheses that differences between ages, sexes and seasons in diet structure occur. We described prey species composition for common squid and fish species and the mean size of cephalopod prey items for these age groups. Three cephalopod species dominated the stomach samples, Alluroteuthis antarcticus, Histioteuthis eltaninae and Slosarczykovia circumantarcticus. We found age-related differences in both species composition and size of larger prey species that probably relate to ontogenetic changes in diving ability and haul-out behaviour and prey availability. These changes in foraging behaviour and diet are hypothesised to reduce intra-specific food competition concomitant with the increase in foraging niche of growing juveniles.     

Development of community of practice to support quantitative risk assessment for synthetic biology products: contaminant bioremediation and invasive carp control as cases

Synthetic biology has the potential for a broad array of applications. However, realization of this potential is challenged by the paucity of relevant data for conventional risk assessment protocols, a limitation due to to the relative nascence of the field, as well as the poorly characterized and prioritized hazard, exposure, and dose–response considerations associated with the development and use of synthetic biology-derived organisms. Where quantitative risk assessment approaches are necessarily to fulfill regulatory requirements for review of products containing genetically modified organisms, this paper reviews one potential avenue for early-stage quantitative risk assessment for biosafety considerations of synthetic biology organism deployment into the environment. Building from discussion from a March 2018 US Army Engineer Research and Development Center workshop on developing such quantitative risk assessment for synthetic biology, this paper reviews the findings and discussion of workshop participants. This paper concludes that, while synthetic biology risk assessment and governance will continue to refine and develop in the coming years, a quantitative framework that builds from existing practice is one potentially beneficial option for risk assessors that must contend with the technology’s limited hazard characterization or exposure assessment considerations in the near term.     

Pre-reproductive survival in a tropical bird and its implications for avian life histories

The factors that affect survival until reproduction are essential to understanding the organization of life histories within and among species. Theory predicts, for example, that survival until reproduction influences the optimum level of reproductive investment by parents, which might partly explain prolonged parental care in species with high first-year survival. Tests and refinements of life-history theory have been hampered, however, by a lack of field-based estimates of pre-reproductive survival, especially for tropical species, which have been the subject of many comparative analyses. Tropical species are predicted to have higher first-year survival and delayed reproduction compared to Northern Hemisphere species. We estimated survival until reproduction, age at first reproduction, and sources of variation in juvenile survival in a Neotropical passerine, the Western Slaty-Antshrike (Thamnophilus atrinucha), in central Panama. We observed that fledged antshrikes had 76% survival through the dependent period and 48% survival to the age of 1 year; survival rate was lowest during the first week after leaving the nest. Timing of fledging within the breeding season, fledgling mass, and age at dispersal influenced survival, while sex of offspring and year did not. Individuals did not breed until two years of age, and post-fledging pre-reproductive survival was 41% of annual adult survival. High survival until reproduction in antshrikes balanced their low annual productivity, resulting in a stable population. Survival during the post-fledging period of dependence and the first year of independence in the Western Slaty-Antshrike exceeded estimates for Northern Hemisphere species. This difference appears to be associated with the extended post-fledging parental care, delayed dispersal, low costs of dispersal, and the less seasonal environment of antshrikes.     

Parentage and paternal care: consequences of intersexual selection in Savannah sparrows?

Empirical relationships between parentage and male parental care are commonly interpreted in the context of life-history models that consider increased offspring survivorship as the only benefit of paternal effort. However, indirect benefits associated with male care can also influence a male's response to cuckoldry: if females allocate paternity according to their prior experience with male parental care, it may pay for males to provision extra-pair young in early broods. Here, I assess the relationship between first-brood parentage and paternal care in a population of Savannah sparrows (Passerculussandwichensis) where a male's fertilization success in the second brood appears to be influenced by his prior parental performance. Based on the multi-locus DNA fingerprinting of 17 first broods, male feeding effort was influenced by parentage (percent of brood resulting from within-pair fertilizations) but not by brood size, male mating status (monogamous versus polygynous), timing of breeding (hatching date), structural size (wing length) or condition (mass). Males provided more care to broods that contained few within-pair young. This result supports the idea that males provision young to increase their future mating success, but alternative hypotheses involving male quality and timing of breeding cannot be excluded. Received: 13 August 1996 / Accepted after revision: 22 February 1997     

Reef size and isolation determine the temporal stability of coral reef fish populations

Temporal variance in species abundance, a potential driver of extinction, is linked to mean abundance through Taylor's power law, the empirical observation of a linear log-log relationship with a slope between 1 and 2 for most species. Here we test the idea that the slope of Taylor's power law can vary both among species and spatially as a function of habitat area and isolation. We used the world's most extensive database of coral reef fish communities comprising a 15-year series of fish abundances on 43 reefs of Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Greater temporal variances were observed at small and isolated reefs, and lower variances at large and connected ones. The combination of reef area and isolation was associated with an even greater effect on temporal variances, indicating strong empirical support for the idea that populations on small and isolated reefs will succumb more frequently to local extinction via higher temporal variability, resulting in lower resilience at the community level. Based on these relationships, we constructed a regional predictive map of the dynamic fragility of coral reef fish assemblages on the Great Barrier Reef.     

Biofiltration of trichloroethylene-contaminated air: a pilot study

This project demonstrated the biofiltration of a trichloroethylene (TCE)-contaminated airstream generated by air stripping groundwater obtained from several wells located at the Anniston Army Depot, Anniston, AL. The effects of several critical process variables were investigated to evaluate technical and economic feasibility, define operating limits and preferred operating conditions, and develop design information for a full-scale biofilter system. Long-term operation of the demonstration biofilter system was conducted to evaluate the performance and reliability of the system under variable weather conditions. Propane was used as the primary substrate necessary to induce the production of a nonspecific oxygenase. Results indicated that the process scheme used to introduce propane into the biofiltration system had a significant impact on the observed TCE removal efficiency. TCE degradation rates were dependent on the inlet contaminant concentration as well as on the loading rate. No microbial inhibition was observed at inlet TCE concentrations as high as 87 parts per million on a volume basis.     

Patterns of brood division and an absence of behavioral plasticity in a neotropical passerine

Studies of parental behavior in various habitats provide an opportunity to gain insight into how different environments may mold strategies of parental care. Brood division by parents has been hypothesized to occur facultatively within and among species. Brood division occurs when each parent cares for specific offspring within a brood. We studied brood division in a neotropical passerine, the western slaty antshrike (Thamnophilus atrinucha). Our results present a unique picture of a highly specialized example of avian brood division. Division was a fixed behavioral pattern in the population studied: all broods divided by fledging and remained divided during the entire post-fledging period. Brood division before fledging, a previously unreported phenomenon, occurred in 40% of nests observed. Parents that preferentially fed a certain offspring (defined as their focal offspring) in the nest fed the same individual after fledging. Each parent fed only its focal offspring in broods of one and two. The male parent cared for the heavier offspring and the first offspring to leave the nest. Siblings were segregated spatially during the time of highest predation risk. These observations suggest that a consistently high risk of predation on offspring has favored initial spatial segregation and inflexibility of brood division behavior in this species. Factors other than predation risk alone may explain the observed patterns of long-term, perfect brood division. Because high predation is common and relatively predictable in the tropics, selection for fixed brood division may be stronger in tropical birds than in the temperate zone.