Passive and active adaptive management: approaches and an example

Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted.     

Adaptive management of natural resources--framework and issues

Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management.     

Adaptive management for a turbulent future

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management.     

Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: an example in asynchronously breeding birds

Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid.     

Source and Delivery of Nutrients to Receiving Waters in the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic Regions of the United States1

Moore, Richard B., Craig M. Johnston, Richard A. Smith, and Bryan Milstead, 2011. Source and Delivery of Nutrients to Receiving Waters in the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic Regions of the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):965‐990. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00582.x Abstract: This study investigates nutrient sources and transport to receiving waters, in order to provide spatially detailed information to aid water‐resources managers concerned with eutrophication and nutrient management strategies. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nutrient models were developed for the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic (NE US) regions of the United States to represent source conditions for the year 2002. The model developed to examine the source and delivery of nitrogen to the estuaries of nine large rivers along the NE US Seaboard indicated that agricultural sources contribute the largest percentage (37%) of the total nitrogen load delivered to the estuaries. Point sources account for 28% while atmospheric deposition accounts for 20%. A second SPARROW model was used to examine the sources and delivery of phosphorus to lakes and reservoirs throughout the NE US. The greatest attenuation of phosphorus occurred in lakes that were large relative to the size of their watershed. Model results show that, within the NE US, aquatic decay of nutrients is quite limited on an annual basis and that we especially cannot rely on natural attenuation to remove nutrients within the larger rivers nor within lakes with large watersheds relative to the size of the lake.     

The probabilistic niche model reveals substantial variation in the niche structure of empirical food webs

The structure of food webs, complex networks of interspecies feeding interactions, plays a crucial role in ecosystem resilience and function, and understanding food web structure remains a central problem in ecology. Previous studies have shown that key features of empirical food webs can be reproduced by low-dimensional "niche" models. Here we examine the form and variability of food web niche structure by fitting a probabilistic niche model to 37 empirical food webs, a much larger number of food webs than used in previous studies. The model relaxes previous assumptions about parameter distributions and hierarchy and returns parameter estimates for each species in each web. The model significantly outperforms previous niche model variants and also performs well for several webs where a body-size-based niche model performs poorly, implying that traits other than body size are important in structuring these webs' niche space. Parameter estimates frequently violate previous models' assumptions: in 19 of 37 webs, parameter values are not significantly hierarchical, 32 of 37 webs have nonuniform niche value distributions, and 15 of 37 webs lack a correlation between niche width and niche position. Extending the model to a two-dimensional niche space yields networks with a mixture of one- and two-dimensional niches and provides a significantly better fit for webs with a large number of species and links. These results confirm that food webs are strongly niche-structured but reveal substantial variation in the form of the niche structuring, a result with fundamental implications for ecosystem resilience and function.     

Chemical defense in pelagic octopus paralarvae: Tetrodotoxin alone does not protect individual paralarvae of the greater blue-ringed octopus (Hapalochlaena lunulata) from common reef predators

Some pelagic marine larvae possess anti-predator chemical defenses. Occasionally, toxic adults imbue their young with their own defensive cocktails. We examined paralarvae of the greater blue-ringed octopus (Hapalochlaena lunulata) for the deadly neurotoxin tetrodotoxin (TTX), and if present, whether TTX conferred protection to individual paralarvae. Paralarvae of H. lunulata possessed 150 ± 17 ng TTX each. These paralarvae appeared distasteful to a variety of fish and stomatopod predators, yet food items spiked with 200 ng TTX were readily consumed by predators. We conclude that TTX alone does not confer individual protection to paralarvae of H. lunulata, and that they possess an alternative defense. In larger doses, tetrodotoxin is a deterrent to the predatory stomatopod Haptosquilla trispinosa (mean dose = 3.97 μg/g). This corresponds to 12–13 paralarvae per predator based on the TTX levels of the clutch we examined. Thus, the basic assumption that individual paralarvae of H. lunulata are defended by TTX alone was disproved. Instead, functionality of TTX levels in paralarvae may arise through alternative selective pathways, such as deterrence to parasites, through kin selection, or against predator species not tested here.     

Commentary: graduated licensing--moving forward or standing still?

The widespread application of graduated driver licensing (GDL), starting in the mid-1990s, has greatly reduced young driver crashes. Substantial further reductions are possible by raising the licensing age to 17. This can be done indirectly, through extension of GDL policies (minimum learner age of 16, one-year holding period), or by legislation directly establishing 17 as the licensing age. Other approaches are likely to have limited impact.     

The contribution of roadside soil to phosphorus loading in the eutrophic Lagos Lagoon, Nigeria

Roadside soils were sampled from the Lagos Lagoon catchment during the wet and dry seasons over the period 2005-2009. Lagoon sediment samples were also collected within the same period. All samples were digested with aqua regia to determine total phosphorus and extracted with 0.5 M sodium bicarbonate to determine the bioavailable fraction (Olsen-P). A segmented flow analyser method was used for analysis and good accuracy was demonstrated for two reference soils (SO-2 from CCMET and SRM 2711 from NIST). The Lagos Lagoon is a hypereutrophic water body (1270 ± 1170 μg P L(-1)), with significant areas of anoxia and water hyacinth growth. The total phosphorus concentrations in roadside soils (16 sites; mean ± 2 S.D.) were 285 ± 279 mg kg(-1) in the wet season and 424 ± 629 mg kg(-1) in the dry season, indicating that rainwater leaching is a major source of phosphorus in the lagoon. The bioavailable fractions were 5.17 ± 3.47 mg kg(-1) (2.1 ± 1.5% of the total) in the wet season and 13.0 ± 8.7 mg kg(-1) (4.3 ± 4.5% of the total) in the dry season.