Setting population-size targets for geese causing socio-economic conflicts

Most European goose populations have increased exponentially, and this has increasingly brought them into conflict with human activities. To manage this conflict, we used multi-criteria decision analysis to help set population targets for a super-abundant population of greylag geese (Anser anser). We relied on expert elicitation to assess the consequences of varying goose abundance on nine ecological, economic, and societal objectives. Representatives from national governments and from non-governmental organizations then weighted the objectives based on their perceived relative importance, and we used a consensus-convergence model to reach stakeholder agreement on the tradeoffs among objectives. The preferred population targets for two management units represent about a 20% reduction from current abundances, which from a management perspective would require considerable effort above and beyond current population-control measures. We believe that multi-criteria decision analysis can provide a systematic and transparent framework for building consensus among diverse stakeholders in a wide array of human-wildlife conflicts.     

The potential for vapour cloud explosions – Lessons from the Buncefield accident

At around 06.00 on Sunday 11th December 2005, a vapour cloud explosion occurred at Buncefield Oil Storage Depot, Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire, UK, generating significant blast pressures. However, as a storage site, the Buncefield terminal had very little pipework congestion and at first sight would not have been considered as having much potential for a vapour cloud explosion. As a consequence, one of the actions of the Buncefield Major Incident Investigation Board (BMIIB) was to initiate a review of the possible causes of the severe explosion on the site. This review was then extended to a Joint Industry Project, Phase 1 of which has offered an explanation of the cause of the explosion. The conclusions are summarized along with reference to relevant experimental studies, illustrating how the elements of the explanation were already known. The implications of the incident for the assessment of vapour cloud explosion hazards will be discussed, both in terms of understanding worst case consequences and the use of risk based approaches.     

Natural attenuation of chlorinated ethene compounds: model development and field-scale application at the Dover site

A multi-dimensional and multi-species reactive transport model was developed to aid in the analysis of natural attenuation design at chlorinated solvent sites. The model can simulate several simultaneously occurring attenuation processes including aerobic and anaerobic biological degradation processes. The developed model was applied to analyze field-scale transport and biodegradation processes occurring at the Area-6 site in Dover Air Force Base, Delaware. The model was calibrated to field data collected at this site. The calibrated model reproduced the general groundwater flow patterns, and also, it successfully recreated the observed distribution of tetrachloroethene (PCE), trichloroethene (TCE), dichloroethylene (DCE), vinyl chloride (VC) and chloride plumes. Field-scale decay rates of these contaminant plumes were also estimated. The decay rates are within the range of values that were previously estimated based on lab-scale microcosm and field-scale transect analyses. Model simulation results indicated that the anaerobic degradation rate of TCE, source loading rate, and groundwater transport rate are the important model parameters. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicated that the shape and extent of the predicted TCE plume is most sensitive to transmissivity values. The total mass of the predicted TCE plume is most sensitive to TCE anaerobic degradation rates. The numerical model developed in this study is a useful engineering tool for integrating field-scale natural attenuation data within a rational modeling framework. The model results can be used for quantifying the relative importance of various simultaneously occurring natural attenuation processes.     

LANDSLIDE INITIATION,RUNOUT, AND DEPOSITION WITHIN CLEARCUTS AND OLD‐GROWTH FORESTS OF ALASKA1

ABSTRACT: More than 300 landslides and debris flows were triggered by an October 1993 storm on Prince of Wales Island, southeast Alaska. Initiation, runout, and deposition patterns of landslides that occurred within clearcuts, second‐growth, and old‐growth forests were examined. Blowdown and snags, associated with cedar decline and “normal” rates of mortality, were found adjacent to at least 75 percent of all failures regardless of land use. Nearly 50 percent of the landslides within clearcuts occurred within one year following timber harvest; more than 70 percent of these sites had hydrophytic vegetation directly above failures. In following the runout paths of failures, significantly more erosion per unit area occurred within clearcuts than in old‐growth forests on slopes with gradients from 9 to 28* (16 to 54 percent). Runout length, controlled by hillslope position within deglaciated valleys, was typically longer in old‐growth forests than in second growth and clearcuts (median values were 334, 201, and 153 m, respectively). Most landslides and debris flows deposited in first‐and second‐order channels before reaching the main stem channels used by anadromous fish. Slide deposits in old‐growth forests were composed of a higher proportion of woody debris than deposits derived from slides in second growth or clearcuts.     

The Link Between the Exceedance of Acidity Critical Loads for Freshwaters,Current Chemical Status and Biological Damage: A Re-Interpretation

Critical loads have for several years been employed bypolicymakers to aid in the development of strategies for aciddeposition abatement. They provide an effects-based approachwhereby an acid deposition flux greater than the critical load(known as critical load exceedance) implies that long-termharmful effects on a selected target organism will occur.Implicit in this approach are two assumptions: first, theexceedance of a critical load will harm the target organism,and second, the severity of biological impact is related to themagnitude of exceedance. However, static models give noindication of when the predicted damage might occur. One suchmodel, the Steady-State Water Chemistry (SSWC) model, employs aseries of empirical relationships to derive the pre-industrial,baseline leaching rate of base cations from measured waterchemistry using the so-called `F-factor'. The SSWC model setsthe critical load relative to pre-industrial base cationleaching (a permanent buffer of acid deposition) and a selectedacid neutralizing capacity (ANC) value which corresponds with aknown likelihood of damage to a biological target organism.Here we interpret the meaning of critical load exceedance as aprediction of steady-state ANC, and explore the relationshipbetween exceedance of the critical load and current chemistry. We demonstrate that a critical loadexceedance with the SSWC model does not necessarily indicatethat the critical chemical threshold (zero ANC) has alreadybeen crossed, and there may be no correlation betweenexceedance and biological status. A reformulation of the SSWCmodel is proposed which provides a direct link between currentdeposition and current chemical conditions, and is thereforemore likely to indicate current biological damage. Thereformulation illustrates the discrepancy between currentchemical status and that predicted by the SSWC model atsteady-state, which is a function of the `F-factor'.     

PREDICTABILITY OF SURFACE WATER POLLUTION LOADING IN PENNSYLVANIA USING WATERSHED‐BASED LANDSCAPE MEASUREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: We formally evaluated the relationship between landscape characteristics and surface water quality in the state of Pennsylvania (USA) by regressing two different types of pollutant responses on landscape variables that were measured for whole watersheds. One response was the monthly exported mass of nitrogen estimated from field measurements, while the other response was a GIS‐modeled pollution potential index. Regression models were built by the stepwise selection protocol, choosing an optimal set of landscape predictors. After factoring out the effect of physiography, the dominant predictors were the proportion of “annual herbaceous” land and “total herbaceous” land for the nitrogen loading and pollution potential index, respectively. The strength of these single predictors is encouraging because the marginal land cover proportions are the simplest landscape measurements to obtain once a land cover map is in hand; however, the optimal set of predictors also included several measurements of spatial pattern. Thus, for watersheds at this general hierarchical scale, gross landscape pattern may be an important influence on instream pollution loading. Overall, there is strong evidence that using landscape measurements alone, obtained solely from remotely sensed data, can explain most of the water quality variability (R²= approx. 0.75) within these watersheds.     

Photocatalytic degradation of the dye sulforhodamine-B： A comparative study of different light sources

The photocatalytic degradation of dye pollutant sulforhodamine-B （SRB） in aqueous titanium dioxide （TiO2） dispersions was examined under three lighting regimes： UV light （330 nm〈λ〈 380 nm）, sunlight, and visible light （λ〉450 nm）, all investigated at pH=2.5. Total organic carbon （TOC） and chemical oxygen demand （CODer） assays show that the degradation rate of SRB is much higher when irradiated with UV and sunlight compared with visible light. The temporal concentration changes of SRB illustrated a first-order reaction and the rate constant, k, is 0.197 min^-1, 0.152 min^-1, 0.027 min^-1, respectively, under the three lighting conditions. The final mineralized products were amine compounds identified by infrared spectrophotometry. When irradiated with visible light, the photocatalytic degradation rate could be improved by lowering the H2O2 concentration and inhibited by increasing the H2O2 concentration, but results contrary to the above were obtained when UV light was used for irradiation.     

IMPROVING IRRIGATION WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE INDUS BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Over half of the water delivered from the canal system to the watercourses managed by the farmers is not made available to the farmers' crops in Pakistan. Most of this water loss is due to loss of water through the banks of the watercourses. Lack of maintaining these banks and lack of cleaning the watercourse is a result of inadequate organization of the 10 to 150 farmers who use the watercourse, and a deficiency of knowledge concerning the amount of their water which is being lost. Various methods of watercourse improvement have been evaluated including concrete and masonry linings and simple earthen improvements of the ditches with concrete control structures, junctions, and turnouts. With the cost of labor low in Pakistan, the earthen improvements with concrete structures appear to be the best investment. Farm water management improvement programs have been implemented in most of the provinces which include this type of watercourse improvement, land leveling and advice to the farmers on how and when to irrigate his crops to optimize his production. The rate at which personnel can be trained to help the farmers implement these improved water management practices is limiting the rate of implementation.     

Diel flux of dissolved carbohydrate in a salt marsh and a simulated estuarine ecosystem

The concentrations of total dissolved carbohydrate (TCHO), monosaccharide (MCHO) and polysaccharide (PCHO) were followed over a total of ten diel cycles in a salt marsh and a 13 m³ seawater tank simulating an estuarine ecosystem. Their patterns are compared to those for total dissolved organic carbon (DOC), CO₂, pH, O₂, chlorophyll a, phaeopigments and solar radiation. During 5 of the 6 marsh studies, PCHO underwent periods of sustained accumulation starting in the late morning or early afternoon and continuing into the early evening. These periods possibly represent release of recently synthesized PCHO from phototrophs. similar patterns were not found in the tank although direct associations between TCHO and phaeopigment dynamics suggest that zooplankton excretion was an important source of dissolved carbohydrate. The numbers of planktonic bacteria determined in one tank study increased rapidly during a late morning PCHO pulse and varied inversely with PCHO throughout the afternoon and evening, indicating that they were able to respond rapidly and control natural substrate concentrations on a time scale of a few hours. MCHO fluctuated to a much lesser extent than PCHO at both locations with levels possibly maintained near the bacterial uptake threshold or in a closely regulated steady state. TCHO concentration changes over 2-to 3-h sampling intervals suggest very rapid net system release and uptake with summer rates frequently exceeding 30 g C l^-1h^-1 in the marsh and 20 g C l^-1 h^-1 in the tank.