Semi-parametric statistical approaches for space-time process prediction

The problem of estimation and prediction of a spatial-temporal stochastic process, observed at regular times and irregularly in space, is considered. A mixed formulation involving a non- parametric component, accounting for a deterministic trend and the effect of exogenous variables, and a parametric component representing the purely spatio-temporal random variation is proposed. Correspondingly, a two-step procedure, first addressing the estimation of the non- parametric component, and then the estimation of the parametric component is developed from the residual series obtained, with spatial-temporal prediction being performed in terms of suitable spatial interpolation of the temporal variation structure. The proposed model formula-tion, together with the estimation and prediction procedure, are applied using a Gaussian ARMA structure for temporal modelling to space-time forecasting from real data of air pollution concentration levels in the region surrounding a power station in northwest Spain.     

Conservation Strategies for Species Affected by Apparent Competition

Apparent competition is an indirect interaction between 2 or more prey species through a shared predator, and it is increasingly recognized as a mechanism of the decline and extinction of many species. Through case studies, we evaluated the effectiveness of 4 management strategies for species affected by apparent competition: predator control, reduction in the abundances of alternate prey, simultaneous control of predators and alternate prey, and no active management of predators or alternate prey. Solely reducing predator abundances rapidly increased abundances of alternate and rare prey, but observed increases are likely short‐lived due to fast increases in predator abundance following the cessation of control efforts. Substantial reductions of an abundant alternate prey resulted in increased predation on endangered huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus) deer in Chilean Patagonia, which highlights potential risks associated with solely reducing alternate prey species. Simultaneous removal of predators and alternate prey increased survival of island foxes (Urocyon littoralis) in California (U.S.A.) above a threshold required for population recovery. In the absence of active management, populations of rare woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) continued to decline in British Columbia, Canada. On the basis of the cases we examined, we suggest the simultaneous control of predators and alternate prey is the management strategy most likely to increase abundances and probabilities of persistence of rare prey over the long term. Knowing the mechanisms driving changes in species’ abundances before implementing any management intervention is critical. We suggest scientists can best contribute to the conservation of species affected by apparent competition by clearly communicating the biological and demographic forces at play to policy makers responsible for the implementation of proposed management actions. Estrategias de Conservación para Especies Afectadas por Competencia Aparente     

Assessing the water quality index of water treatment plant and bore wells, in Delhi, India

Water quality monitoring exercise was carried out with water quality index (WQI) method by using water characteristics data for bore wells and a water treatment plant in Delhi city from December 2006 to August 2007. The water treatment plant received surface water as raw water, and product water is supplied after treatment. The WQI is used to classify water quality as excellent, good, medium, bad, and very bad. The National Sanitation Foundation WQI procedure was used to calculate the WQI. The index ranges from 0 to 100, where 100 represents an excellent water quality condition. Water samples were collected monthly from a bore well in Nehru Camp (site 1), a bore well in Sanjay Gandhi pumping station (site 2), and water treatment plant in Haiderpur (site 3). Five parameters were analyzed, namely, nitrate, pH, total dissolved solids, turbidity, and temperature. We found that the WQI was around 73–80 in site 3, which corresponds to “good,” and it decreased to 54.32–60.19 and 59.93–70.63 in site 1 and site 2, respectively, indicating that these bore wells were classified as “medium” quality.     

A Multilevel Model of the Impact of Farm‐Level Best Management Practices on Phosphorus Runoff1

Abstract: Multilevel or hierarchical models have been applied for a number of years in the social sciences but only relatively recently in the environmental sciences. These models can be developed in either a frequentist or Bayesian context and have similarities to other methods such as empirical Bayes analysis and random coefficients regression. In essence, multilevel models take advantage of the hierarchical structure that exists in many multivariate datasets; for example, water quality measurements may be taken from individual lakes, lakes are located in various climatic zones, lakes may be natural or man‐made, and so on. The groups, or levels, may effectively yield different responses or behaviors (e.g., nutrient load response in lakes) that often make retaining group membership more effective when developing a predictive model than when working with either all of the data together or working separately with the individuals. Here, we develop a multilevel model of the impact of farm level best management practices (BMPs) on phosphorus runoff. The result of this research is a model with parameters which vary with key practice categories and thus may be used to evaluate the effectiveness of these practices on phosphorus runoff. For example, it was found that the effect of fertilizer application rate on farm‐scale phosphorus loss is a function of the application method, the hydrologic soil group, and the land use (crop type). Further, results indicate that the most effective method for controlling fertilizer loss is through soil injection. In summary, the resultant multilevel model can be used to estimate phosphorus loss from farms and hence serve as a useful tool for BMP selection.     

Monitoring nitrate leaching from submerged drains

Monitoring nitrate N (NO3-N) leaching is important in order to judge the effect that agricultural practices have on the quality of ground water and surface water. Measuring drain discharge rates and NO3-N concentrations circumvents the problem of spatial variability encountered by other methods used to quantify NO3-N leaching in the field. A new flow-proportional drainage water sampling method for submerged drains has been developed to monitor NO3-N leaching. Both low and high discharge rates can be measured accurately, and are automatically compensated for fluctuations in ditch-water levels. The total amount of NO3-N leached was 10.6 kg N ha(-1) for a tile-drained silt-loam soil during the 114-d monitoring period. The NO3-N concentrations fluctuated between 5 mg L(-1) at deep ground water levels and 15 mg L(-1) at shallow levels, due to variations in water flow. A flow-proportional drainage water sampling method is required to measure NO3-N leaching accurately under these conditions. Errors of up to 43% may occur when NO3-N concentrations in the drainage water are only measured at intervals of 30 d and when the precipitation excess is used to estimate cumulative NO3-N leaching. Measurements of NO3-N concentrations in ground water cannot be used to accurately estimate NO3-N leaching in drained soils.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contamination in stormwater detention pond sediments in coastal South Carolina

The purpose of this study was to characterize the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) contamination in the sediments of stormwater detention ponds in coastal South Carolina. Levels of the sum of PAH analytes were significantly higher in the sediments of commercial ponds compared to that of reference, golf course, low-density residential, and high-density residential ponds. Isomer ratio analysis suggested that the predominant source of PAHs were pyrogenic; however, many ponds had a PAH signature consistent with mixed uncombusted and combusted PAH sources. PAH levels in these sediments could be modeled using both pond drainage area and pond surface area. These results demonstrate that the sediment from most commercial ponds, and a few residential and golf course ponds, were moderately contaminated with PAHs. PAH levels in these contaminated ponds exceeded between 42% and 75% of the ecological screening values for individual PAH analytes established by US EPA Region IV, suggesting that they may pose a toxicological risk to wildlife.     

Integrating multi-criteria evaluation techniques with geographic information systems for landfill site selection: a case study using ordered weighted average

This paper presents a GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis approach for evaluating the suitability for landfill site selection in the Polog Region, Macedonia. The multi-criteria decision framework considers environmental and economic factors which are standardized by fuzzy membership functions and combined by integration of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and ordered weighted average (OWA) techniques. The AHP is used for the elicitation of attribute weights while the OWA operator function is used to generate a wide range of decision alternatives for addressing uncertainty associated with interaction between multiple criteria. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by different OWA scenarios that report landfill suitability on a scale between 0 and 1. The OWA scenarios are intended to quantify the level of risk taking (i.e., optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral) and to facilitate a better understanding of patterns that emerge from decision alternatives involved in the decision making process.     

Risk factors for driving into flooded roads

Motor vehicle-related deaths account for more than half of all flood fatalities in the United States, but to date, very little is known about the risk factors associated with why people drive into flooded roads. Using data from survey questionnaires administered in Denver, CO, and Austin, TX, this paper suggests that people who do not take warnings seriously are more likely to drive through flooded roads, as are people aged 18–35, and those that do not know that motor vehicles are involved in more than half of all flood fatalities. In Denver, people who have not experienced a flood previously and those who do not know they live in flood-prone areas are also more likely to drive into flooded roads.     

A Thermodynamic Geography: Night-Time Satellite Imagery as a Proxy Measure of Emergy

Night-time satellite imagery enables the measurement, visualization, and mapping of energy consumption in an area. In this paper, an index of the “sum of lights” as observed by night-time satellite imagery within national boundaries is compared with the emergy of the nations. Emergy is a measure of the solar energy equivalent used, directly or indirectly, to support the processes that characterize the economic activity in a country. Emergy has renewable and non-renewable components. Our results show that the non-renewable component of national emergy use is positively correlated with night-time satellite imagery. This relationship can be used to produce emergy density maps which enable the incorporation of spatially explicit representations of emergy in geographic information systems. The region of Abruzzo (Italy) is used to demonstrate this relationship as a spatially disaggregate case.