Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Mercury and trace elements in cloud water and precipitation collected on Mt. Mansfield,Vermont

The lack of high quality measurements of Hg and trace elements in cloud and fog water led to the design of a new collector for clean sequential sampling of cloud and fog water. Cloud water was collected during nine non-precipitating cloud events on Mt. Mansfield, VT in the northeastern USA between August 1 and October 31, 1998. Sequential samples were collected during six of these events. Mercury cloud water concentrations ranged from 7.5 to 71.8 ng l(-1), with a mean of 24.8 ng l(-1). Liquid water content explained about 60% of the variability in Hg cloud concentrations. Highest Hg cloud water concentrations were found to be associated with transport from the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio River Valley, and lowest concentrations with transport from the north of Mt. Mansfield out of Canada. Twenty-nine event precipitation samples were collected during the ten-week cloud sampling period near the base of Mt. Mansfield as part of a long-term deposition study. The Hg concentrations of cloud water were similar to, but higher on average (median of 12.5 ng l(-1)) than Hg precipitation concentrations (median of 10.5 ng l(-1)). Cloud and precipitation samples were analyzed for fifteen trace elements including Mg, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb by ICP-MS. Mean concentrations were higher in cloud water than precipitation for elements with predominately anthropogenic, but not crustal origin in samples from the same source region. One possible explanation is greater in-cloud scavenging of crustal elements in precipitating than non-precipitating clouds, and greater below-cloud scavenging of crustal than anthropogenic aerosols.     

Speciation of arsenic using solid phase extraction cartridges

Various solid phase extraction (SPE) cartridges were investigated for speciation of arsenite [As(III)], arsenate [As(v)], monomethylarsonic acid (MMA) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA). Cartridges containing different types of sorbent materials were tested for arsenic retention and elution characteristics. Alumina cartridges were found to completely retain all the four target arsenic species, and are suitable for removal and preconcentration purposes. For speciation analysis, different arsenic species were separated on the basis of their selective retention on and elution from specific cartridges. DMA was retained on a resin-based strong cation exchange cartridge and eluted with 1.0 M HCl. MMA and As(v) were both retained on a silica-based strong anion exchange cartridge and sequentially eluted with 60 mM acetic acid (for MMA) and 1.0 M HCl [for As(v)]. As(III) was not retained on either cartridge and remained in solution. Arsenic species in solution and those eluted from the cartridges were subsequently quantified by using flow injection with hydride generation atomic fluorescence spectrometry (FI-HGAFS) and hydride generation atomic absorption spectrometry (FI-HGAAS). A detection limit of 0.05 microg L(-1) arsenic in water sample was achieved using HGAFS. An application of the method was demonstrated at a drinking water treatment facility. As(III) and As(v) species were determined in water at various stages of treatment. The method is suitable for routine determination of trace levels of arsenic in drinking water to comply with more stringent environmental regulations.     

Working backwards to move forwards: Graph-based connectivity metrics for reserve network selection

In this paper we apply graph theory in a reserve selection exercise to explore the tradeoffs between maintaining connectivity and minimizing the total area of a protected area network. Rather than focus on a single organism, we used a multi-species approach and looked at the tradeoff curves for organisms with varying dispersal abilities. We first generated the tradeoff curves using a graph-based metric to determine the importance of individual patches for maintaining connectivity. We then performed an analogous set of analyses using patch size as a surrogate measure of importance.     

Multi-objective, decision-based assessment of a water quality monitoring network in a river system

Water quality monitoring network design has historically tended to use experience, intuition and subjective judgement in locating monitoring stations. Better design procedures to optimize monitoring systems need to simultaneously identify significant planning objectives and consider a number of social, economic and environmental constraints. The consideration of multiple objectives may require further decision analysis to determine the preference weights associated with the objectives to aid in the decision-making process. This may require the application of an optimization study to extract such information from decision makers or experts and to evaluate the overall effectiveness of locating strategies. This paper assesses the optimal expansion and relocation strategies of a water quality monitoring network using a two-stage analysis. The first stage focuses on the information retrieval of preference weights with respect to the designated planning objectives. With the aid of a pre-emptive goal programming model, data analysis is applied to obtain the essential information from the questionnaire outputs. The second stage then utilizes a weighted multi-objective optimization approach to search for the optimal locating strategies of the monitoring stations in the river basin. Practical implementation is illustrated by a case study in the Kao-Ping River Basin, south Taiwan.     

Applying mathematical programming to reserve selection

During the last 10–15 years heuristic methods have been developed for problems in optimal reserve selection. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that heuristics will find optimal solutions. In recognizing this limitation, analysts have formulated reserve selection problems as set covering problems, for which matrix reduction and integer (0/1) programming can be used to find optimal solutions. In this paper we restate the set covering formulation and review solution techniques. A new 0/1 programming model, which is a generalization of the set covering model, is then presented and applied to a hypothetical reserve selection problem. Objectives of minimizing the number of sites selected and maximizing the number of species represented are addressed. Solutions which characterize the tradeoffs between these objectives provide a rich set of information for planners and decision makers. Applications of mathematical programming to related problems in land use planning and forestry are also discussed.     

Optimal and suboptimal control of anaerobic digesters

Anaerobic digester failure due to entry of inhibitors or sudden changes in the feed substrate concentration may be encompassed beneficially by applying optimal control theory. An almost proportional relationship between the dilution rate and the methane production rate leads to a simple suboptimal control law with only minor loss in performance, after the occurrence of the above mentioned events.     

Control of rumen methanogenesis

During the last decades, considerable research on methane production in the rumen and its inhibition has been carried out. Initially, as methane production represents a significant loss of gross energy in the feed (2–15%), the ultimate goal of such intervention in rumen fermentation was an increase in feed efficiency. A second reason favouring research on methane inhibition is its role in the global warming phenomenon and in the destruction of the ozone layer. In this review, the authors describe briefly several interventions for reducing methane emission by ruminants. The objective can be reached by intervention at the dietary level by ration manipulation (composition, feeding level) or by the use of additives or supplements. Examples of additives are polyhalogenated compounds, ionophores and other antibiotics. Supplementation of the ration with lipids also lowered methanogenesis. More biotechnological interventions, e.g., defaunation, probiotics and introduction of reductive acetogenesis in the rumen, are also mentioned. It can be concluded that drastic inhibition of methane production is not unequivocally successful as a result of several factors, such as: instantaneous inhibition often followed by restoration of methanogenesis due to adaptation of the microbes or degradation of the additive, toxicity for the host animal, negative effects on overall digestion and productive performance. Therefore, methanogenesis and its inhibition cannot be considered as a separate part of rumen fermentation and its consequences on the animal should be taken into account.     

The analysis of monitoring data with the aid of time-series analysis

Methods derived from time-series analysis are proposed for processing monitoring data. The necessity for the use of these methods is demonstrated. In a case study time-series analysis was applied to assess the impact of the closure of the Grevelingen estuary (S. W. Netherlands) in 1971 on a local wintering population of Oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus) in the adjacent Oosterschelde estuary.Communication No. 328 of the Delta Institute for Hydrobiological Research.