Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Foresight science in conservation: Tools,barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0.     

基于厌氧污泥接种的预处理工艺对分户厕所废水亚硝化反应启动的影响

采用分户处理的方式对厕所废水进行单独处理是迅速改善乡村地区生活卫生条件的捷径。部分亚硝化-厌氧氨氧化方法的出现为分户厕所废水的处理提供了更为可持续的工艺选项。亚硝化反应是厌氧氨氧化反应的先决性步骤。以分户厕所废水为处理对象,在不接种亚硝化污泥的前提下,考察了在厕所废水预处理单元接种厌氧污泥对亚硝化反应启动的影响。结果表明,厌氧污泥的接种可将亚硝化反应的启动周期缩短至正常周期的50%,其作用机理位削弱了异养细菌对氨氧化细菌的竞争性抑制。以上研究结果可为分户厕所废水部分亚硝化反应的快速启动提供参考。     

Robust optimization evaluation of reliance on locally produced foods

While local food production may be beneficial in terms of developing the local economy and reducing greenhouse gases from transportation, sustainability strategies focused on local food production may generate their own risks due to yield variability. We have developed a robust optimization (RO) model to determine the minimum amount of land (cropland and pasture) required to grow food items that would satisfy a local population’s (accounting for gender and age) calorie and nutrient needs. This model has been applied to Boone County, Missouri, which has a population of approximately 170,000. Boone County is 1790 km², with 16% of the land defined as cropland and 30% defined as pasture. The model includes 27 nutrients from 17 potential foods that could be produced: six fruits and vegetables, five grains and six animal-sourced foods. Yield estimates are based on the predominate methods of agriculture in the USA. We first run our model assuming no variability, using the midpoint yield estimates. Then, to quantify uncertainty in yield for different food types, we use historical yield data over 10 years to estimate this variability and run our RO model under these variability estimates. We compare the two model results to illustrate the impact of data uncertainty on meeting sustainable local food for communities. Solutions suggest that nutrition needs can be met for the Boone County population within the land area defined.     

Accelerated carbonation of different size fractions of bottom ash from RDF incineration

This paper investigates the effects of accelerated carbonation on the characteristics of bottom ash from refuse derived fuel (RDF) incineration, in terms of CO₂ uptake, heavy metal leaching and mineralogy of different particle size fractions. Accelerated aqueous carbonation batch experiments were performed to assess the influence of operating parameters (temperature, CO₂ pressure and L/S ratio) on reaction kinetics. Pressure was found to be the most relevant parameter affecting the carbonation yield. This was also found to be largely dependent on the specific BA fraction treated, with CO₂ uptakes ranging from ～4% for the coarse fractions to ～14% for the finest one. Carbonation affected both the mineralogical characteristics of bottom ash, with the appearance of neo-formation minerals, and the leaching behaviour of the material, which was found to be mainly related to the change upon carbonation in the natural pH of the ash.     

Environmentally Friendly Polyurethane Composites: Preparation, Characterization and Mechanical Properties

The waterborne polyurethane (PU) prepolymer was prepared based on isophorone diisocyanate (IPDI), polyester polyol (N220), dimethylol propionic acid (DMPA) and hydroxyethyl methyl acrylate (HEMA). The modified waterborne polyurethane–acrylate (PUA) emulsions were obtained with different proportions of acrylate (butyl acrylate and methyl methacrylate) and initiating agent by in situ dispersion technique. The structures and thermal properties of prepared PU and PUA were analyzed and characterized with FT-IR, UV–Vis spectroscopy and DSC. The PUA hybrid samples had lower glass transition temperature of hard segment and higher decomposition temperatures than PU sample. Performances of the emulsion and film were studied by means of apparent viscidity, particle size and polydispersity, surface tension and mechanical properties. The results indicated that the particle sizes of the PUA dispersions were larger than those of the pure PU and the solvent resistance, mechanical properties of PUA films was improved compare with the unmodified polyurethane film. The film had the biggest hardness and the least water absorption when the BA/MMA mass ratio 5:5 modified PU. The obtained PUA have great potential application such as coatings, leather finishing, adhesives, sealants, plastic coatings and wood finishes.     

Flexible reproductive strategies in tropical and temperate Sepioteuthis squids

A major difficulty confronting the determination of cephalopod reproductive life history is assessing over what portion of the life span an individual is reproductively mature and actively depositing eggs. This paper assesses the potential of the tropical Sepioteuthis lessoniana and two genetic types of the temperate Sepioteuthis australis, to spawn multiple batches of eggs at discrete times throughout the adult life span. This is achieved by histological examination of the ovarian gametogenic cycle and detailed morphological assessments of the reproductive system, in conjunction with other biological information. The genetic type of S. australis found at the northern limits of its Australian distribution showed evidence of a high correlation between body size and quantity of mature eggs, suggesting that eggs may be accumulating to be laid in a single batch. Although maturation was also a size-related process in S. lessoniana and Tasmanian S. australis, oviduct size was not correlated with body weight in mature females, which is indicative of multiple spawning. Further supporting evidence includes relatively low gonadosomatic indices, the heavier weight of the ovary relative to the oviduct, and the feeding activity of mature animals. Mature S. lessoniana and S. australis individuals were present at each location over very wide age and size ranges. In Tasmanian waters, there were distinct seasonal differences in the reproductive biology of S. australis. Summer-caught individuals had much higher gonadosomatic indices and may have been laying larger batches of eggs compared with winter-caught individuals. Summer-caught females also showed a negative correlation between egg size and egg number within the oviduct, suggesting that some individuals were producing fewer, larger eggs and others many smaller eggs. Evidence suggests that considerable flexibility is inherent in the reproductive strategy of both S. lessoniana and S. australis. Received: 11 May 2000 / Accepted: 12 September 2000     

State Intervention to Protect Endangered Species: Why History and Bad Luck Matter

Abstract: Illegal exploitation threatens the survival of many species, and anti-poaching legislation ("protection on paper") does not protect species. State enforcement is needed to support and supplement the formal status of endangered species, but state enforcement can be a source of instability leading to the demise of species if ad hoc rules are followed blindly. We demonstrate this with a model of poaching, wildlife, and government wildlife enforcement, but our findings apply more generally. Crucial assumptions of the dynamic model are that both poaching and enforcement effort increase or decrease whenever poaching effort and enforcement are relatively profitable or unprofitable activities, respectively. We found that multiple steady states may characterize the system's equilibrium. Depending on initial populations, the initial extent of state involvement, and random events, animal populations may be severely depleted or unexpectedly built up during transition phases. Our findings highlight the importance of history and luck in protecting endangered species.