城市地区毒气扩散事故数值模拟

在城市人口密集区域，一旦发生重大危险气体泄露事故，周围居民将处境危险。由于城市特殊的街道街谷影响，用普通的方法难以精确计算出场的时空分布，大涡模拟（Large Eddy Simulation）虽然较为精确，但对计算机计算能力要求较高。针对于此，可以通过一些方法，例如贴体网格分析、卫星遥感技术，局部网格加密技术，改进大涡模型的计算条件，考虑泄漏事故一旦发生时，道路、房屋、气候对于气体扩散的影响，对事故的致灾机理从动力学的角度进行研究。在箅例中，通过分析城市地区庙会时的一起事故．模拟气体扩散浓度的时空分布，得出城市地区各个地区的不同受灾程度。通过算例我们看到，数值模拟能够为进一步安全规划、灾害预防、应急反应提供决策支持．     

基坑围护结构及周围环境变形的预测

传统的基坑支护结构设计具有相当的模糊性和不确定性 ,可能危及基坑和周围环境的安全。笔者利用深基坑支护体系的监测数据 ,采用灰色系统理论建立了基坑工程变形的GM(1 ,1 )预测模型 ,其模型的两个参数可识别基坑变形发展势态 ,并由此讨论了模型的适用范围。最后 ,运用该模型预测分析实际基坑工程支护结构变形 ,表明其预测模型可用于基坑动态设计与信息化施工     

地震应急的影响因素分析

本文在理论分析、国内外历史震例和救灾案例研究的基础上,同时参照我国的相关政策和法律法规文件,对影响地震应急(包括震前准备和震后应急行动)的因素进行了初步分类,并系统讨论了这些因素影响地震应急的方式、途径和程度.以期为地震应急的理论研究和地震应急的实际工作提供部分补充和指导.     

Recent patterns of production for the main cereal grains: implications for food security in China

China’s large population and deteriorating environment have created great concern related to the sustainability of food production, especially since details related to this topic remain poorly studied. Thus, an integrated analysis of both crop yield and cultivated area is essential for gaining a better understanding of cereal grain production in China and for making corresponding policies designed to achieve food security. In this study, we adopt trend analysis of both provincial yield and cultivated area to assess the subsequent provincial-level cereal production sustainability between 1980 and 2011 with the goal of providing a better understanding of regional agricultural development. The results indicate that while maize shows the most promise for yield improvement, rice and wheat production is experiencing substantial yield stagnation among most provinces across mainland China. In addition, the trends in spatial patterns are prominently different from those of yields. The sizes of the main rice- and wheat-growing areas in China have declined greatly, suggesting that the related production of these cereals should attract more attention from land management planners and farmers. Specifically, the south-eastern coastal provinces have largely failed to sustain both crop yield and area, while the north-eastern provinces have witnessed thriving agricultural production during the last three decades. Moreover, we find that cereal production in China is significantly affected by governmental policies related to the agricultural sector. Thus, this analysis of food production in China will help policymakers to better understand how the potential implications of food security in China may be applicable to countries worldwide.     

Efficacy of created and restored nesting sites for the conservation of colonial Laridae in the South of France

By rapidly modifying key habitat components, habitat restoration is at risk of producing attractive cues for animals without providing habitats of sufficient quality. As such, individual fitness components, such as reproduction, could be reduced and restored habitats could become ecological traps. This risk notably appears by using artificial constructions in restoration projects, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in a robust way. We investigated this by analyzing 154 islets that were created or restored to improve the conservation status of 7 colonial Laridae species in the South of France. From 2007 to 2016, we compared occupancy dynamics and breeding parameters of these species between the restored sites and 846 unmanaged nesting sites. We also explored species’ preference for different nesting site characteristics and their respective effect on breeding parameters. Restored nesting sites were 2–9 times as attractive as unmanaged sites for all species except the Black-headed Gull (Chroicocephalus ridibundus). Colonization probability was up to 100 times higher in sites already used by other species the previous year and increased with distance to the shore until >0.2 when distance was over 250 m. Abandonment probability was 29–70% lower when breeding was successful the previous year in all species except the Sandwich Tern (Thalasseus sandvicensis). Productivity and breeding success probability were 2 times higher on managed sites. Distance from the shore was an important attractive characteristic of artificial nesting sites in all species. Other nesting site characteristics had species-specific effects on colonization, abandonment, and breeding success. Our results indicate that managed nesting sites are successful conservation tools for colonial Laridae in the Mediterranean and do not act as ecological traps. Our study showed that testing the ecological trap hypothesis is a robust way to evaluate the success of restoration projects of breeding habitats.     

乌东德水库水温预测及低温水减缓措施

乌东德水库为季调节水库,采用宽度平均的立面二维水温数学模型对水库水温结构进行预测,结果表明:乌东德水库水温结构呈季节性分层特征,电站运行对下游水温过程有一定程度的春季低温水和冬季高温水影响。如果采用单层取水方案,在2~8月的下泄水温低于坝址现状水温,最大降幅为2.0℃,下泄低温水将对坝下鱼类产卵繁殖产生不利影响。乌东德水电站拟采取分层取水的措施,对低温水较为敏感的鱼类产卵期3~6月采用叠梁门取水。相比于单层取水,叠梁门方案对低温水的改善效果较明显,下泄水温提高了0.8~1.1℃,能一定程度地减缓升温期水温延迟效应。     

博斯腾湖西岸表流人工湿地水体脱盐效果研究

针对博斯腾湖日益严重的盐污染问题,以博斯腾湖西岸表面流人工湿地为研究对象,引当地排渠水进入人工湿地,对人工湿地的进水和出水进行连续7个月的水质监测,对比分析进水和出水中8种离子(Ca~(2+)、Na~+、K~+、Mg~(2+)、Cl~-、SO_4~(2-)、CO_3~(2-)、HCO_3~-)和矿化度的变化,结果表明:人工湿地进水含盐量较高,8种离子的浓度和矿化度波动较大,4月和10月进水为微咸水,5—9月进水为咸水,而出水含盐量相对较低,8种离子的浓度和矿化度波动较小,各月出水均为微咸水。经计算分析可知,人工湿地对水体总盐的平均去除率为51%,水体盐分的去除率与温度呈正相关,且随季节性温度变化而发生变化。     

自适应智能电磁防护材料测试方法研究

目的在强电磁场环境下研究自适应智能电磁防护材料的相变特性。方法针对自适应智能电磁防护材料相变前后电导率的变化范围大、需要强场激励状况,考虑测试系统强场生成、大动态范围、测试精度以及相应的绝缘性和较高的安全性要求,采用电容充放电原理设计强场激励测试电路,搭建绝缘环境,确保操作的安全性和测试数据的可靠性。结果利用测试系统对现有商业化电阻器进行验证试验,得到的特性曲线与理论相一致。结论测试系统能够满足自适应智能电磁防护材料相变特性试验的需求,可获取有效且可靠的测试数据。     

包气带系统对矿冶固废渗滤液中重金属的净化作用

矿冶固废渗滤液流经包气带系统时,包气带系统中的黏土矿物、土壤有机质、土壤微生物和植物根系会把渗滤液中的部分污染物质固定下来,使渗滤液得到净化。包气带系统中的微生物、黏土矿物、有机质和植物根系构成了包气带系统的净化介质,是决定包气带系统自净能力和影响重金属迁移转化的关键因素。分别从包气带系统中的黏土矿物、土壤有机质、土壤微生物和植物四个方面对重金属的净化机理进行了阐述分析,指出包气带系统对重金属的净化作用可能是暂时的,pH值和Eh值等条件的改变会促使累积在包气带系统中的重金属重新发生迁移,并提出利用包气带系统净化矿冶固废渗滤液中具有高毒性与放射性的核素时,必须对该核素在包气带系统中的迁移转换规律进行研究,只有这样才能合理地利用包气带系统的自净作用,保障生态环境的安全性。     

深部隧道单节理岩体开挖卸荷破裂及锚杆加固研究

深部隧道开挖卸荷引起的岩体破裂是地下工程典型灾害之一。针对深部隧道单节理岩体在开挖卸荷条件下的破裂问题,基于开挖卸荷引起的最小主应力线性降低规律,采用Griffith强度理论准则对开挖卸荷条件下的含单节理岩体破裂进行了分析,并对破裂岩体进行了锚杆加固设计研究。结果表明:当结构面倾角大于支护应力状态下的破裂角时,深部岩体初始应力状态下未产生破裂,随着最小主应力的降低,深部岩体先产生材料破坏后沿结构面破坏;当支护应力状态下的破裂角大于结构面倾角时,深部岩体受支护应力作用仅产生材料破裂;当结构面倾角小于最小主应力为0时对应的破裂角,深部岩体无论是否支护岩体仅产生材料破裂;对于深部岩体,产生破裂的必要条件是最大主应力大于8倍的岩体抗拉强度,且破裂角变化于30°~45°之间;岩体支护应力的选择应在岩体初始破裂应力与结构面破裂应力之间,并且要保证岩体应力的释放率以及围岩的稳定性。石塘隧道岩体破裂分析及锚杆加固研究表明:岩体首先产生材料破坏,其破坏的临界应力值为10.25 MPa,对应的破裂角为39.9°,结构面破裂的临界应力值为4.15 MPa;石塘隧道岩体在无支护条件下,沿结构面产生突发性破坏,岩体支护应在开挖完成40.59h内完成,岩体支护应力为7.175 MPa,支护破裂角为37.5°,单根锚杆锚拉设计值为88.7kN,锚固长度为5m,倾角为15°,间距为0.8m,此锚杆设计参数下可保证岩体应力充分释放以及确保围岩的稳定性。