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81.
Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates. 相似文献
82.
Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Angela M. Penn William B. Sherwin †† Greg Gordon † Daniel Lunney ‡ Alistair Melzer § and Robert C. Lacy 《Conservation biology》2000,14(3):629-638
Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models. 相似文献
83.
上海与伦敦城市绿地的生态功能及管理对策比较研究 总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13
在资料收集及实地采样调查的基础上 ,文章对上海与伦敦城市绿地的生态功能及管理对策进行了比较分析 ,指出了上海城市绿地建设及管理中的一些优点及不足之处。 相似文献
84.
王东莲 《城市环境与城市生态》2000,13(2):48-50
文章对我国污染预防现状进行了评估,并对如何进一步实施污染预提出初步建议,形成污染预防框架行动计划,试图人们从行为和观念转向污染预防提供方向。框架行计划着重从政策和法律,组织和人力资源,研究和开发,污染预防活动和实践到评估、推广等方面进行了建议。 相似文献
85.
Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required
over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but
none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised
A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even
when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice
to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and
outside laticifers effectively protects the plant.
Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999 相似文献
86.
环境管理、规划管理与项目管理 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
文章从深入分析环境管理的内涵出发,进而提出树立项目管理意识,强化项目管理的概念,说明项目管理在环境管理中的地位和作用,从这个意义上讨论环境管理与项目管理的关系,简述环境保护项目管理的主要环节,达到提高环境管理效能的途径的目的。 相似文献
87.
88.
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90.
回顾了地震观测技术发展的三个阶段及其特点。简要总结了随着这几个阶段的技术进步南京基准地震台观测技术的重要变革 ,并从记录地震事件数量、大地震速报作用和推动某些研究的深入等方面评估了由于这些技术进步所带来的地震台效能的提高。对目前地震观测技术从模拟观测向数字观测的转折时期 ,地震台如何尽快过渡 ,充分发挥效能提出了初步对策。 相似文献