Egg coloration in ring-billed gulls (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Larus delawarensis</Emphasis>): a test of the sexual signaling hypothesis

Although many avian eggs appear to be cryptically colored, many species also lay vibrant blue green eggs. This seemingly conspicuous coloration has puzzled biologists since Wallace, as natural selection should favor reduced egg visibility to minimize predation pressure. The sexual signaling hypothesis posits that blue green egg coloration serves as a signal of female quality and that males exert post-mating sexual selection on this trait by investing more in the nests of females laying more intensely blue green eggs. This hypothesis has received mixed support to date, and most previous studies have been conducted in cavity-nesting species where male evaluation of his partner’s egg coloration, relative to that of other females, may be somewhat limited. In this study, we test the sexual signaling hypothesis in colonially nesting ring-billed gulls (Larus delawarensis) where males have ample opportunity to assess their mate’s egg coloration relative to that of other females. We used correlational data and an experimental manipulation to test four assumptions and predictions of the sexual signaling hypothesis: (1) blue green pigmentation should be limiting to females; (2) extent of blue green egg coloration should relate to female quality; (3) extent of blue green egg coloration should relate to offspring quality; and (4) males should provide more care to clutches with higher blue green chroma. Our data provide little support for these predictions of the sexual signaling hypothesis in ring-billed gulls. In light of this and other empirical data, we encourage future studies to consider additional hypotheses for the evolution of blue green egg coloration.     

Rarefaction and nonrandom spatial dispersion patterns

Rarefaction estimates how many species are expected in a random sample of individuals from a larger collection and allows meaningful comparisons among collections of different sizes. It assumes random spatial dispersion. However, two common dispersion patterns, within-species clumping and segregation among species, can cause rarefaction to overestimate the species richness of a smaller continuous area. We use field studies and computer simulations to determine (1) how robust rarefaction is to nonrandom spatial dispersion and (2) whether simple measures of spatial autocorrelation can predict the bias in rarefaction estimates. Rarefaction does not estimate species richness accurately for many communities, especially at small sample sizes. Measures of spatial autocorrelation of the more abundant species do not reliably predict amount of bias. Survey sites should be standardized to equal-sized areas before sampling. When sites are of equal area but differ in number of individuals sampled, rarefaction can standardize collections. When communities are sampled from different-sized areas, the mean and confidence intervals of species accumulation curves allow more meaningful comparisons among sites. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Uncertainty propagation in vegetation distribution models based on ensemble classifiers

Ensemble learning techniques are increasingly applied for species and vegetation distribution modelling, often resulting in more accurate predictions. At the same time, uncertainty assessment of distribution models is gaining attention. In this study, Random Forests, an ensemble learning technique, is selected for vegetation distribution modelling based on environmental variables. The impact of two important sources of uncertainty, that is the uncertainty on spatial interpolation of environmental variables and the uncertainty on species clustering into vegetation types, is quantified based on sequential Gaussian simulation and pseudo-randomization tests, respectively. An empirical assessment of the uncertainty propagation to the distribution modelling results indicated a gradual decrease in performance with increasing input uncertainty. The test set error ranged from 30.83% to 52.63% and from 30.83% to 83.62%, when the uncertainty ranges on spatial interpolation and on vegetation clustering, respectively, were fully covered. Shannon’s entropy, which is proposed as a measure for uncertainty of ensemble predictions, revealed a similar increasing trend in prediction uncertainty. The implications of these results in an empirical distribution modelling framework are further discussed with respect to monitoring setup, spatial interpolation and species clustering.     

Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model

To study the interaction between species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change, we focus on the question of how climate-induced shifts in key species affect the positive feedback loops that lock shallow lakes either in a transparent, macrophyte-dominated state or, alternatively, in a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. We hypothesize that climate warming will weaken the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated clear state. For the turbid state, we hypothesize that climate warming and climate-induced eutrophication will increase the dominance of cyanobacteria. Climate change will also affect shallow lakes through a changing hydrology and through climate change-induced eutrophication. We study these phenomena using two models, the full ecosystem model PCLake and a minimal dynamic model of lake phosphorus dynamics. Quantitative predictions with the complex model show that changes in nutrient loading, hydraulic loading and climate warming can all lead to shifts in ecosystem state. The minimal model helped in interpreting the non-linear behaviour of the complex model. The main output parameters of interest for water quality managers are the critical nutrient loading at which the system will switch from clear to turbid and the much lower critical nutrient loading – due to hysteresis – at which the system switches back. Another important output parameter is the chlorophyll-a level in the turbid state. For each of these three output parameters we performed a sensitivity analysis to further understand the dynamics of the complex model PCLake. This analysis showed that our model results are most sensitive to changes in temperature-dependence of cyanobacteria, planktivorous fish and zooplankton. We argue that by combining models at various levels of complexity and looking at multiple aspects of climate changes simultaneously we can develop an integrated view of the potential impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.     

Climate and maternal effects modify sex ratios in a weakly dimorphic marsupial

There is growing evidence that the sex ratios of wild vertebrate populations are determined by mechanisms that are directly influenced by environmental characteristics. The Trivers–Willard (TWH) and extrinsic modification (EMH) hypotheses postulate differing determinants of mammalian offspring sex ratios. TWH states that mothers allocate resources according to their current condition and sex-specific offspring costs. EMH states that environmental forces that affect maternal condition determine offspring sex ratios, independently of maternal tactics of sex-biased allocation. We statistically assessed support for each of these hypotheses using long-term life histories of the allied rock-wallaby, Petrogale assimilis; a continuously breeding, polygynous, weakly dimorphic marsupial. We showed that birth sex ratios were equal and independent of maternal and environmental conditions. However, secondary sex ratios were male-biased under good environmental conditions and for high quality mothers or mothers in good condition. Sex differences in offspring survival contributed to these biases: (1) environmental conditions strongly influenced survival to pouch emergence (in support of EMH) and (2) maternal quality affected survival to the end of maternal care (in support of TWH). Environmental effects on survival were more important than maternal factors over the entire period of maternal care and contributed most to male-biased sex ratios at pouch emergence. In contrast, maternal mass was the best predictor of sex ratios at the end of maternal care—the life history stage where offspring body mass differed between the sexes.     

Re-orientation in clock-shifted homing pigeons subjected to a magnetic disturbance: a study with GPS data loggers

Some authors have proposed that homing pigeons are able to correct the error in orientation following a phase-shift treatment by using the magnetic compass reference. They reported that clock-shifted pigeons bearing magnets display a greater deflection compared to magnetically unmanipulated clock-shifted birds. However, this hypothesis tested by recording pigeons’ vanishing bearings has led to contradictory results. The present study reports pigeons’ tracks recorded with a GPS and shows that clock-shifted pigeons bearing magnets displayed a greater deviation through the whole route compared to the magnetically unmanipulated shifted pigeons. Moreover, the analysis of the tracks shows that the birds belonging to both experimental groups stop in coincidence with their subjective night. When re-starting their journey, the birds corrected the clock-shift induced error in orientation, but the magnetically manipulated pigeons were less efficient in doing so. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that homing pigeons released from unfamiliar location re-orient after clock shift by using the magnetic compass.     

Estimation of urban sensible heat flux using a dense wireless network of observations

The determination of the sensible heat flux over urban terrain is challenging due to irregular surface geometry and surface types. To address this, in 2006–07, a major field campaign (LUCE) took place at the école Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne campus, a moderately occupied urban site. A distributed network of 92 wireless weather stations was combined with routine atmospheric profiling, offering high temporal and spatial resolution meteorological measurements. The objective of this study is to estimate the sensible heat flux over the built environment under convective conditions. Calculations were based on Monin–Obukhov similarity for temperature in the surface layer. The results illustrate a good agreement between the sensible heat flux inferred from the thermal roughness length approach and independent calibrated measurements from a scintillometer located inside the urban canopy. It also shows that using only one well-selected station can provide a good estimate of the sensible heat flux over the campus for convective conditions. Overall, this study illustrates how an extensive network of meteorological measurements can be a useful tool to estimate the sensible heat flux in complex urban environments.     

EcoTroph: Modelling marine ecosystem functioning and impact of fishing

EcoTroph (ET) is a model articulated around the idea that the functioning of aquatic ecosystems may be viewed as a biomass flow moving from lower to higher trophic levels, due to predation and ontogenetic processes. Thus, we show that the ecosystem biomass present at a given trophic level may be estimated from two simple equations, one describing biomass flow, the other their kinetics (which quantifies the velocity of biomass transfers towards top predators). The flow kinetic of prey partly depends on the abundance of their predators, and a top-down equation expressing this is included in the model. Based on these relationships, we simulated the impact on a virtual ecosystem of various exploitation patterns. Specifically, we show that the EcoTroph approach is able to mimic the effects of increased fishing effort on ecosystem biomass expected from theory. Particularly, the model exhibits complex patterns observed in field data, notably cascading effects and ‘fishing down the food web’. EcoTroph also provides diagnostic tools for examining the relationships between catch and fishing effort at the ecosystem scale and the effects of strong top-down controls and fast-flow kinetics on ecosystems resilience. Finally, a dynamic version of the model is derived from the steady-state version, thus allowing simulations of time series of ecosystem biomass and catches. Using this dynamic model, we explore the propagation of environmental variability in the food web, and illustrated how exploitation can induce a decrease of ecosystem stability. The potential for applying EcoTroph to specific ecosystems, based on field data, and similarities between EcoTroph and Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) are finally discussed.     

Database-driven models of the world's Large Marine Ecosystems

We present a new methodology for database-driven ecosystem model generation and apply the methodology to the world's 66 currently defined Large Marine Ecosystems. The method relies on a large number of spatial and temporal databases, including FishBase, SeaLifeBase, as well as several other databases developed notably as part of the Sea Around Us project. The models are formulated using the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling approach and software. We tune the models by fitting to available time series data, but recognize that the models represent only a first-generation of database-driven ecosystem models. We use the models to obtain a first estimate of fish biomass in the world's LMEs. The biggest hurdles at present to further model development and validation are insufficient time series trend information, and data on spatial fishing effort.