Statistical Power of Presence-Absence Data to Detect Population Declines

Abstract: Population declines may be inferred from a decrease in the number of sites at which a species is detected. Although such presence-absence data often are interpreted informally, it is simple to test the statistical significance of changes in the number of sites occupied by a species. I used simulations to examine the statistical power (i.e., the probability of making the Type II error that no population decline has occurred when the population actually has declined) of presence-absence designs. Most presence-absence designs have low power to detect declines of < 20–50% in populations but have adequate power to detect steeper declines. Power was greater if the population disappeared entirely from a subset of formerly occupied sites than if it declined evenly over its entire range. Power also rose with (1) increases in the number of sites surveyed; (2) increases in population density or sampling effort at a site; and (3) decreases in spatial variance in population density. Because of potential problems with bias and inadequate power, presence-absence designs should be used and interpreted cautiously.     

Analysis of short-term ozone and PM2.5 measurements: Characteristics and relationships for air sensor messaging

Air quality sensors are becoming increasingly available to the general public, providing individuals and communities with information on fine-scale, local air quality in increments as short as 1 min. Current health studies do not support linking 1-min exposures to adverse health effects; therefore, the potential health implications of such ambient exposures are unclear. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establishes the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Air Quality Index (AQI) on the best science available, which typically uses longer averaging periods (e.g., 8 hr; 24 hr). Another consideration for interpreting sensor data is the variable relationship between pollutant concentrations measured by sensors, which are short-term (1 min to 1 hr), and the longer term averages used in the NAAQS and AQI. In addition, sensors often do not meet federal performance or quality assurance requirements, which introduces uncertainty in the accuracy and interpretation of these readings. This article describes a statistical analysis of data from regulatory monitors and new real-time technology from Village Green benches to inform the interpretation and communication of short-term air sensor data. We investigate the characteristics of this novel data set and the temporal relationships of short-term concentrations to 8-hr average (ozone) and 24-hr average (PM_2.5) concentrations to examine how sensor readings may relate to the NAAQS and AQI categories, and ultimately to inform breakpoints for sensor messages. We consider the empirical distributions of the maximum 8-hr averages (ozone) and 24-hr averages (PM_2.5) given the corresponding short-term concentrations, and provide a probabilistic assessment. The result is a robust, empirical comparison that includes events of interest for air quality exceedances and public health communication. Concentration breakpoints are developed for short-term sensor readings such that, to the extent possible, the related air quality messages that are conveyed to the public are consistent with messages related to the NAAQS and AQI.

Implications: Real-time sensors have the potential to provide important information about fine-scale current air quality and local air quality events. The statistical analysis of short-term regulatory and sensor data, coupled with policy considerations and known health effects experienced over longer averaging times, supports interpretation of such short-term data and efforts to communicate local air quality.     

BASE FLOW RECESSION RATES,LOW FLOWS,AND HYDROLOGIC FEATURES OF SMALL WATERSHEDS IN PENNSYLVANIA,USA1

This paper examines the relationships between measurable watershed hydrologic features, base flow recession rates, and the Q_7,10 low flow statistic (the annual minimum seven‐day average streamflow occurring once every 10 years on average). Base flow recession constants were determined by analyzing hydrograph recession data from 24 small (>130 km²), unregulated watersheds across five major physiographic provinces of Pennsylvania, providing a highly variable dataset. Geomorphic, hydrogeologic, and land use parameters were determined for each watershed. The base flow recession constant was found to be most strongly correlated to drainage density, geologic index, and ruggedness number (watershed slope); however, these three parameters are intercorrelated. Multiple regression models were developed for predicting the recession rate, and it was found that only two parameters, drainage density and hydrologic soil group, were required to obtain good estimates of the recession constant. Equations were also developed to relate the recession rates to Q_7,10 per unit area, and to the Q_7,10/Q₅₀ ratio. Using these equations, estimates of base flow recession rates, Q_7,10, and streamflow reduction under drought conditions can be made for small, ungaged basins across a wide range of physiography.     

Efficacy of Vegetated Buffers in Preventing Transport of Fecal Coliform Bacteria from Pasturelands

An experimental study was conducted in Tillamook, Oregon, USA, to quantify the effectiveness of edge-of-field vegetated buffers for reducing transport of fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) from agricultural fields amended with dairy cow manure. Installation of vegetated buffers on loamy soils dramatically reduced the bacterial contamination of runoff water from manure-treated pasturelands, but the size of the vegetated buffer was not an important determinant of bacterial removal efficiency. Only 10% of the runoff samples collected from treatment cells having vegetated buffers exhibited FCB concentrations >200 colony forming units (cfu)/100 mL (a common water quality standard value), and the median concentration for all cells containing vegetated buffers was only 6 cfu/100 mL. The presence of a vegetated buffer of any size, from 1 to 25 m, generally reduced the median FCB concentration in runoff by more than 99%. Results for FCB load calculations were similar. Our results suggest that where substantial FCB contamination of runoff occurs from manure-treated pasturelands, it might be disproportionately associated with specific field or management conditions, such as the presence of soils that exhibit low water infiltration and generate larger volumes of runoff or the absence of a vegetated buffer. Buffer size regulations that do not consider such differences might not be efficient or effective in reducing bacterial contamination of runoff.     

Gravity model formulation for an extensive National Parkway Site

The purpose of this study was to collect specific information on the characteristics and intensity of local Blue Ridge Parkway use and to use that information to develop a recreation use model of local Parkway visitation. Data were obtained from a self-administered mail-back questionnaire sent to a random sample of people living in the 29 counties adjacent to the Parkway.We developed two recreation use projection/demand models that employ three variables (distance, alternative recreation sites, and population density) to predict visitation to different Parkway areas from various local origins. The derived model estimates indicated that about one-fourth of all Parkway visits in 1978 were one-day visits made by area residents.     

Ecology and Conservation of the Endangered American Burying Beetle (Nicrophorus americanus)

Field studies were conducted on the western population of the endangered American burying beetle (Nicrophorus americanus) in Oklahoma and Arkansas to determine its habitat affinities. A common cause of declining populations is some specialized adaptation that makes it difficult to respond to a rapidly changing habitat. We evaluated the hypothesis that N. americanus is a habitat specialist in its search for food, preferring mature forests with deep, humic soils. This hypothesis was rejected. Based on comparisons of niche breadth among syntopic congeners and niche overlap, N. americanus is relatively generalized in its use of a range of habitats when searching for food. It is likely that the generalist nature and the endangered status of N. americanus both derive from the fact that it is the largest member of its guild. In comparison to smaller species, N. americanus breeds on larger carcasses, which are more unpredictable in space and time. It is likely, therefore, that N. americanus must search over a larger area and greater diversity of habitats than its smaller congeners.     

Planning‐level source decay models to evaluate impact of source depletion on remediation time frame

A recent United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Expert Panel on Dense Nonaqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) Source Remediation concluded that the decision‐making process for implementing source depletion is hampered by quantitative uncertainties and that few useful predictive tools are currently available for evaluating the benefits. This article provides a new planning‐level approach to aid the process. Four simple mass balance models were used to provide estimates of the reduction in the remediation time frame (RTF) for a given amount of source depletion: step function, linear decay, first‐order decay, and compound. As a shared framework for assessment, all models use the time required to remediate groundwater concentrations below a particular threshold (e.g., goal concentration or mass discharge rate) as a metric. This value is of interest in terms of providing (1) absolute RTF estimates in years as a function of current mass discharge rate, current source mass, the remediation goal, and the source‐ reduction factor, and (2) relative RTF estimates as a fraction of the remediation time frame for monitored natural attenuation (MNA). Because the latter is a function of the remediation goal and the remaining fraction (RF) of mass following remediation, the relative RTF can be a valuable aid in the decision to proceed with source depletion or to use a long‐term containment or MNA approach. Design curves and examples illustrate the nonlinear relationship between the fraction of mass remaining following source depletion and the reduction in the RTF in the three decay‐based models. For an example case where 70 percent of the mass was removed by source depletion and the remediation goal (C_g/C₀) was input as 0.01, the improvement in the RTF (relative to MNA) ranged from a 70 percent reduction (step function model) to a 21 percent reduction (compound model). Because empirical and process knowledge support the appropriateness of decay‐based models, the efficiency of source depletion in reducing the RTF is likely to be low at most sites (i.e., the percentage reduction in RTF will be much lower than the percentage of the mass that is removed by a source‐depletion project). Overall, the anticipated use of this planning model is in guiding the decision‐making process by quantifying the relative relationship between RTF and source depletion using commonly available site data. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.