EVALUATION OF GREAT LAKES NET BASIN SUPPLY FORECASTS1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's (GLERL's) physically-based monthly net basin supply forecast method reveals component errors and the effects of model improvements for use on the Laurentian Great Lakes. While designed for probabilistic outlooks, it is assessed for giving deterministic outlooks along with other net basin supply forecast methods of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Environment Canada, and with a stochastic approach commissioned by the Corps. The methods are compared to a simple clima-tological forecast and to actual time series of net basin supplies. Aetual net basin supplies are currently determined by estimating all components directly, instead of as water-balance residuals. This is judged more accurate and appropriate for both forecasting and simulation. GLERL's physically-based method forecasts component supplies while the other methods are based on residual supplies. These other methods should be rederived to be based on component supplies. For each of these other methods, differences between their outlooks and residual supplies are used as error estimates for the rederived methods and component supplies. The evaluations are made over a recent period of record high levels followed by a record drought. Net basin supply outlooks are better than climatology, and GLERL's physically-based method performs best with regard to either component or residual net basin supplies. Until advances are made in long-range climate outlooks, deterministic supply outlooks cannot be improved significantly.     

Improved direct molecular diagnosis and rapid fetal sexing

Adaptations of the techniques of modern molecular biology to prenatal diagnosis has opened new avenues for the detection of genetic diseases. We have taken advantage of the rapid adhesion of colony forming cells in cultured amniotic fluid samples to develop an improved method for molecular diagnosis. By employing the cell adherence regime sickle cell diagnosis using Mst II can be undertaken directly. In addition, hybridization with a cloned repetitive sequence that is of Y origin and has limited autosomal homology permits rapid fetal sexing in 3 to 4 days without compromising conventional cytogenetic or biochemical analysis. This combination of techniques provides a useful adjunct to convential prenatal genetic diagnosis in the second trimester.     

Availability and Extraction of Forest Products in Managed and Primary Forest around a Dayak Village in West Kalimantan, Indonesia

We examined the density and abundance of marketable products in managed forest (rubber gardens, fruit gardens, and dry rice fallows) and in primary forest surrounding the Dayak village of Kembera, near Gunung Palung National Park, West Kalimantan, Indonesia. We calculated the proportion of trees that were marketable and useful for local consumption by counting and identifying trees in each managed forest type, and we documented extraction of products through interviews. Villagers harvested four marketable tree products: tengkawang seeds ( Shorea stenoptera ), durian fruits (various Durio spp.), rubber ( Hevea brasiliensis ), and timber, especially Bornean ironwood ( Eusideroxylon zwageri ). We inventoried trees at least 20 cm diameter at breast height (dbh) of marketed species from 0.4-ha plots in primary forest ( n = 8) and from 0.1-ha plots in each managed forest type ( n = 10–11). With the exception of timber, the density of trees producing a marketable product was significantly higher in the forest type managed for that product than the density of the marketed species, or of similar wild species, in primary forest. Total abundance (product of density and available area) of durian and tengkawang was greater in primary forest; however, villagers gathered these products only from managed forest. We infer from this choice a greater efficiency of harvesting from trees in dense stands near the village. Historically, this choice resulted in deliberate development of fruit gardens in preference or in addition to gathering from the more distant, primary forest. Because of low product density in primary forest, extractive forest reserves or buffer zones designed to encourage the production of fruits such as tengkawang or durian may not provide a sufficient incentive for the protection of primary forest around Kembera and other Dayak villages near Gunung Palung National Park.     

Mainstreaming the social sciences in conservation

Despite broad recognition of the value of social sciences and increasingly vocal calls for better engagement with the human element of conservation, the conservation social sciences remain misunderstood and underutilized in practice. The conservation social sciences can provide unique and important contributions to society's understanding of the relationships between humans and nature and to improving conservation practice and outcomes. There are 4 barriers—ideological, institutional, knowledge, and capacity—to meaningful integration of the social sciences into conservation. We provide practical guidance on overcoming these barriers to mainstream the social sciences in conservation science, practice, and policy. Broadly, we recommend fostering knowledge on the scope and contributions of the social sciences to conservation, including social scientists from the inception of interdisciplinary research projects, incorporating social science research and insights during all stages of conservation planning and implementation, building social science capacity at all scales in conservation organizations and agencies, and promoting engagement with the social sciences in and through global conservation policy‐influencing organizations. Conservation social scientists, too, need to be willing to engage with natural science knowledge and to communicate insights and recommendations clearly. We urge the conservation community to move beyond superficial engagement with the conservation social sciences. A more inclusive and integrative conservation science—one that includes the natural and social sciences—will enable more ecologically effective and socially just conservation. Better collaboration among social scientists, natural scientists, practitioners, and policy makers will facilitate a renewed and more robust conservation. Mainstreaming the conservation social sciences will facilitate the uptake of the full range of insights and contributions from these fields into conservation policy and practice.     

Application of passive soil gas technology to determine the source and extent of a PCE groundwater plume in an urban environment

In situations where groundwater supplies have been impacted by volatile organic compounds (VOCs), such as tetrachloroethene (PCE), and the source has not been identified, the costs to identify the source and plume migration patterns may be extremely high. The costs for an investigation increase with the number and depth of borings and the number of samples that are collected and analyzed. An environmental investigator and the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) have successfully utilized passive soil gas (PSG) surveys in Arizona to cost‐effectively investigate VOC impacts to groundwater and identify potential sources of impact. PSG surveys are minimally intrusive, and more samples can be collected for the same cost when compared to active soil gas surveys and conventional soil and groundwater sampling programs. The result is a surficial representation of the contaminant plume and the location of “hot spots,'' which are the potential sources. This provides a better understanding of the nature and extent of the impact and allows for a focused subsurface investigation, which subsequently reduces drilling and sampling costs. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Resilience certification for commercial buildings: a study of stakeholder perspectives

Infrastructure resilience has become a primary objective for homeland and national security organizations over the past decade. Recent initiatives have focused on resilient building design, and one approach under consideration is a voluntary resilience certification program for commercial buildings. The intent of this program would be to encourage the adoption of resilient design practices in construction and planning of the buildings. While resilience may be a frequently discussed concept within the security communities, its level of awareness within the construction, design, insurance, and building owner communities is not well known. Given the voluntary nature of the certification program under consideration, program development requires a comprehensive understanding of resilience as defined by the commercial building stakeholders. Toward this end, Sandia National Laboratories conducted a study of stakeholder perspectives on resilience to ascertain factors that would serve as motivation for participation in the resilience certification program. This paper describes how Sandia performed the study and the resulting conclusions. One of the key conclusions that the study found is that the term resilience is unfamiliar to many and inconsistently defined across the industries. Those familiar with the term frequently linked it to sustainability concepts. The study also found that increased participation in the resilience certification program is very likely affected by demonstrable returns on resilience investments and a public–private partnership model for program administration.     

Effects of activated sludge and UV disinfection processes on the bacterial community and antibiotic resistance profile in a municipal wastewater treatment plant

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Wastewater tertiary treatment has been pointed out as an effective alternative for reducing the concentration of antibiotic resistant bacteria and...