Modeling Human Factors That Affect the Loss of Biodiversity

Within conservation biology human factors are treated as driving forces of biodiversity loss, yet there are few empirical studies on how human actions affect biodiversity. We developed and tested an interdisciplinary model of biodiversity loss using socioeconomic and ecological data from 107 countries and structural equation modeling techniques. Some portions of the model fit the data well, other parts were less predictive. Counterintuitive results may be a result of the quality and availability of cross-national data and statistical limitations in testing a model of such complex processes. This model test provides insight into future research needs for examining human impacts on biodiversity. Issues including data quality, temporal and spatial scale, and model refinement are outlined. The results highlight the importance of relations between human social systems and biodiversity and the potential of interdisciplinary research.     

Critical Risk Indicators (CRIs) for the electric power grid: a survey and discussion of interconnected effects

The electric power grid is a critical societal resource connecting multiple infrastructural domains such as agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing. The electrical grid as an infrastructure is shaped by human activity and public policy in terms of demand and supply requirements. Further, the grid is subject to changes and stresses due to diverse factors including solar weather, climate, hydrology, and ecology. The emerging interconnected and complex network dependencies make such interactions increasingly dynamic, posing novel risks, and presenting new challenges to manage the coupled human–natural system. This paper provides a survey of models and methods that seek to explore the significant interconnected impact of the electric power grid and interdependent domains. We also provide relevant critical risk indicators (CRIs) across diverse domains that may be used to assess risks to electric grid reliability, including climate, ecology, hydrology, finance, space weather, and agriculture. We discuss the convergence of indicators from individual domains to explore possible systemic risk, i.e., holistic risk arising from cross-domain interconnections. Further, we propose a compositional approach to risk assessment that incorporates diverse domain expertise and information, data science, and computer science to identify domain-specific CRIs and their union in systemic risk indicators. Our study provides an important first step towards data-driven analysis and predictive modeling of risks in interconnected human–natural systems.

     

Spatial relationships between lead sources and children’s blood lead levels in the urban center of Indianapolis (USA)

Urban children remain disproportionately at risk of having higher blood lead levels than their suburban counterparts. The Westside Cooperative Organization (WESCO), located in Marion County, Indianapolis, Indiana, has a history of children with high blood lead levels as well as high soil lead (Pb) values. This study aims at determining the spatial relationship between soil Pb sources and children’s blood lead levels. Soils have been identified as a source of chronic Pb exposure to children, but the spatial scale of the source–recipient relationship is not well characterized. Neighborhood-wide analysis of soil Pb distribution along with a furnace filter technique for sampling interior Pb accumulation for selected homes (n = 7) in the WESCO community was performed. Blood lead levels for children aged 0–5 years during the period 1999–2008 were collected. The study population’s mean blood lead levels were higher than national averages across all ages, race, and gender. Non-Hispanic blacks and those individuals in the Wishard advantage program had the highest proportion of elevated blood lead levels. The results show that while there is not a direct relationship between soil Pb and children’s blood lead levels at a spatial scale of ~100 m, resuspension of locally sourced soil is occurring based on the interior Pb accumulation. County-wide, the largest predictor of elevated blood lead levels is the location within the urban core. Variation in soil Pb and blood lead levels on the community level is high and not predicted by housing stock age or income. Race is a strong predictor for blood lead levels in the WESCO community.     

The triple helix of Plantago lanceolata: genetics and the environment interact to determine population dynamics

The theory of evolution via natural selection predicts that the genetic composition of wild populations changes over time in response to the environment. Different genotypes should exhibit different demographic patterns, but genetic variation in demography is often impossible to separate from environmental variation. Here, we asked if genetic variation is important in determining demographic patterns. We answer this question using a long-term field experiment combined with general linear modeling of deterministic population growth rates (lambda), deterministic life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis, and stochastic simulation of demography by paternal lineage in a short-lived perennial plant, Plantago lanceolata, in which we replicated genotypes across four cohorts using a standard breeding design. General linear modeling showed that growth rate varied significantly with year, spatial block, and sire. In LTRE analysis of all cohorts, the strongest influences on growth rate were from year x spatial block, and cohort x year x spatial block interactions. In analysis of genetics vs. temporal environmental variation, the strongest impacts on growth rate were from year and year x sire. Finally, stochastic simulation suggested different genetic composition among cohorts after 100 years, and different population growth rates when genetic differences were accounted for than when they were not. We argue that genetic variation, genotype x environment interactions, natural selection, and cohort effects should be better integrated into population ecological studies, as these processes should result in deviations from projected deterministic and stochastic population parameters.     

Canopy and leaf composition drive patterns of nutrient release from pruning residues in a coffee agroforest

In a coffee agroforest, the crop is cultivated under the shade of fruit-bearing and nitrogen (N)-fixing trees. These trees are periodically pruned to promote flowering and fruiting as well as to make nutrients stored in tree biomass available to plants. We investigated the effect of canopy composition and substrate quality on decomposition rates and patterns of nutrient release from pruning residues in a coffee agroforest located in Costa Rica's Central Valley. Initial phosphorus (P) release was enhanced under a canopy composed solely of N-fixing, Erythrina poeppigiana compared to a mixed canopy of Erythrina and Musa acuminata (banana). Both initial and final N release were similar under the two canopy types. However, after five months of decomposition, a higher proportion of initial N had been released under the single canopy. Although patterns of decomposition and nutrient release were not predicted by initial substrate quality, mass loss in leaf mixtures rates were well predicted by mean mass loss of their component species. This study identifies specific pruning regimes that may regulate N and P release during crucial growth periods, and it suggests that strategic pruning can enhance nutrient availability. For example, during the onset of rapid fruit growth, a two-species mixture may release more P than a three-species mixture. However, by the time of the harvest, the two- and three-species mixtures have released roughly the same amount of N and P. These nutrients do not always follow the same pattern, as N release can be maximized in single-species substrates, while P release is often facilitated in species mixtures. Our study indicates the importance of management practices in mediating patterns of nutrient release. Future research should investigate how canopy composition and farm management can also mediate on-farm nutrient losses.     

CHANGES IN PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL VARIABLES IN A NEW RESERVOIR DUE TO PUMPED STORAGE OPERATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Information on biologically important physical and chemical variables is presented for Lake Oconee, a newly impounded pumped storage reservoir in Georgia. During its first summer, when no pumping occurred, temperature, oxygen, pH, inorganic nitrogen, and phosphorus were vertically stratified with severe hypolimnetic oxygen depletion. During the second summer, when pumped storage was in operation, more homogenous vertical profiles, generally higher oxygen, and lower dissolved nutrient concentrations were observed. These pumped storage effects were observed at all stations, rather than being confined to the immediate vicinity of the dam.     

Reproductive success of solitary and communal Philoponella oweni (Araneae: Uloboridae)

Summary Philoponella oweni (Uloboridae) is a facultatively communal orb-web spider found in arid regions in the southwestern United States. Within one habitat solitary adult females and communal groups of adult females coexist.This study compared the reproductive output (egg production) and reproductive success (production of live offspring) of solitary and communal females. There was no significant difference in the mean number of egg-cases produced by solitary and communal females, but communal females produced significantly more eggs per egg-case. However, communal females suffered significantly higher rates of egg-case parasitism from the pteromalid wasp Arachnopteromalus dasys. As a result, the mean number of liver offspring produced by solitary and communal females did not differ. Thus, both strategies led to roughly equal reproductive success. The advantages of aggregation of adults may be significant in the evolution of social behavior in spiders.     

Influence of ethnicity on recreation and natural environment use patterns: Managing recreation sites for ethnic and racial diversity

Management of natural environment sites is becoming increasingly complex because of the influx of urbanized society into wildland areas. This worldwide phenomenon impacts a wide range of countries. In southern California ethnicity is often a major factor influencing recreation site use and behavior at sites in the wildland-urban interface. This study investigated the role of ethnicity and race on the use patterns, perception of environment, and recreation behaviors at an outdoor recreation site visited by an ethnically diverse population. Two research questions were asked: (1) What ethnic groups engage in outdoor recreation at this site, and (2) what differences can be assigned to these various groups? Data were collected from 250 recreationists during 1991. Three major ethnic groups were identified, and statistically significant differences were found in the importance of site attributes, activity participation, and in preferred and actual communication channels. Management implications and strategies based on group differences are discussed.