Demography and disappearing merchandise: How older workforces influence retail shrinkage

Prior research on retail shrinkage has taken a largely individual‐level approach to theorizing about why it occurs, showing that older employees are less prone to theft and more vigilant in preventing customer shoplifting than younger personnel. However, given the influence of organizational contexts on organizational behavior, theorizing about shrinkage may be enhanced by the consideration of business‐unit level contextual variables. The present study addressed this concern by examining the relationship between store‐level age composition, whistle‐blowing (WB) climate, and shrinkage in 726 retail stores. Results indicated that the negative mean age–shrinkage relationship was stronger when there was less age diversity or a climate more supportive of WB. Moreover, the negative WB climate–shrinkage linkage was stronger when the mean age was higher. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A molecular genetic analysis of social structure, dispersal, and interpack relationships of the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus )

The African wild dog is a highly social, pack-living predator of the African woodland and savannah. The archetypal wild dog pack consists of a single dominant breeding pair, their offspring, and non-breeding adults who are either offspring or siblings of one of the breeding pair. Non-breeding adults cooperate in hunting, provisioning and the protection of young. From these observations follows the prediction that the genetic structure of wild dogs packs should resemble that of a multigenerational family, with all same-sexed adults and offspring within a pack related as sibs or half-sibs. Additionally, a higher kinship between females from neighboring packs should be evident if females tend to have small dispersal distances relative to males. We test these predictions through analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences and 14 microsatellite loci in nine wild dog packs from Kruger National Park, Republic of South Africa. We show that as predicted, African wild dog packs generally consist of an unrelated alpha male and female, subdominant close relatives, and offspring of the breeding pair. Sub-dominant wild dogs occasionally reproduce but their offspring rarely survive to 1 year of age. Relatedness influences the timing and location of dispersal events as dispersal events frequently coincide with a change in pack dominance hierarchy and dispersers often move to areas with a high proportion of close relatives. Received: 22 February 1996 / Accepted after revision: 16 November 1996     

Age-structured modeling reveals long-term declines in the natality of western Steller sea lions.

Since the mid-1970s, the western Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus), inhabiting Alaskan waters from Prince William Sound west through the Aleutian Islands, has declined by over 80%. Changing oceanographic conditions, competition from fishing operations, direct human-related mortality, and predators have been suggested as factors driving the decline, but the indirect and interactive nature of their effects on sea lions have made it difficult to attribute changes in abundance to specific factors. In part, this is because only changes in abundance, not changes in vital rates, are known. To determine how vital rates of the western Steller sea lion have changed during its 28-year decline, we first estimated the changes in Steller sea lion age structure using measurements of animals in aerial photographs taken during population surveys since 1985 in the central Gulf of Alaska (CGOA). We then fit an age-structured model with temporally varying vital rates to the age-structure data and to total population and pup counts. The model fits indicate that birth rate in the CGOA steadily declined from 1976 to 2004. Over the same period, survivorship first dropped severely in the early 1980s, when the population collapsed, and then survivorship steadily recovered. The best-fitting model indicates that in 2004, the birth rate in the central Gulf of Alaska was 36% lower than in the 1970s, while adult and juvenile survivorship were close to or slightly above 1970s levels. These predictions and other model predictions concerning population structure match independent field data from mark-recapture studies and photometric analyses. The dominant eigenvalue for the estimated 2004 Leslie matrix is 1.0014, indicating a stable population. The stability, however, depends on very high adult survival, and the shift in vital rates results in a population that is more sensitive to changes in adult survivorship. Although our modeling analysis focused exclusively on the central Gulf of Alaska, the western Gulf of Alaska and eastern Aleutians show a similar pattern of declining pup fraction with no increase in the juvenile, or pre-breeding, fraction. This suggests that declining birth rate may be a problem for western Steller sea lions across the Gulf of Alaska and into the Aleutian Islands.     

Aphid population response to agricultural landscape change: A spatially explicit,individual-based model

A spatially explicit individual-based simulation model has been developed to represent aphid population dynamics in agricultural landscapes. The application of the model to Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) population dynamics is detailed, including an outline of the construction of the model, its parameterisation and validation. Over time, the aphids interact with the landscape and with one another. The landscape is modified by varying a simple pesticide regime, and the multi-scale spatial and temporal implications for a population of aphids is analysed. The results show that a spatial modelling approach that considers the effects on the individual of landscape properties and factors such as wind speed and wind direction provides novel insight into aphid population dynamics both spatially and temporally. This forms the basis for the development of further simulation models that can be used to analyse how changes in landscape structure impact upon important species distributions and population dynamics.     

Principal biogeochemical factors affecting the speciation and transport of mercury through the terrestrial environment

It is increasingly becoming known that mercury transport and speciation in the terrestrial environment play major roles in methyl-mercury bioaccumulation potential in surface water. This review discusses the principal biogeochemical reactions affecting the transport and speciation of mercury in the terrestrial watershed. The issues presented are mercury-ligand formation, mercury adsorption/desorption, and elemental mercury reduction and volatilization. In terrestrial environments, OH-, Cl- and S- ions have the largest influence on ligand formation. Under oxidized surface soil conditions Hg(OH)2, HgCl2, HgOH+, HgS, and Hg0 are the predominant inorganic mercury forms. In reduced environments, common mercury forms are HgSH+, HgOHSH, and HgClSH. Many of these mercury forms are further bound to organic and inorganic ligands. Mercury adsorption to mineral and organic surfaces is mainly dictated by two factors: pH and dissolved ions. An increase in Cl- concentration and a decrease in pH can, together or separately, decrease mercury adsorption. Clay and organic soils have the highest capability of adsorbing mercury. Important parameters that increase abiotic inorganic mercury reduction are availability of electron donors, low redox potential, and sunlight intensity. Primary factors that increase volatilization are soil permeability and temperature. A decrease in mercury adsorption and an increase in soil moisture will also increase volatilization. The effect of climate on biogeochemical reactions in the terrestrial watershed indicates mercury speciation and transport to receiving water will vary on a regional basis.     

The Surface Roughness of a Rubber Soling Material Determines the Coefficient of Friction on Water-Lubricated Surfaces

For more than a decade, evidence has been accumulating that points to the fact that the microscopic roughness of the footwear soling surface is a major determinant of slip-resistance on lubricated surfaces, but conclusive experimental proof has been lacking. This article describes an experiment in which five pairs of shoes were soled with the same rubber compound. Four of the pairs were abraded by different grades of grit to produce a range of roughness values. The coefficient of friction (CoF) of the five solings was then measured repeatedly by the walking traction method on wet surfaces including glazed wall tiles, vinyl asbestos coated with the wax floor polish, and both sides of a sheet of float glass. The Kruskal-Wallis statistical test proved beyond doubt that the soling roughness is a major factor in determining the CoF of this rubber soling material; p < 10⁻⁵. Nearly all of the grip was due to surface roughness of the soling material on these atypically smooth floors, although the surface roughness of the floors also had a significant effect on CoF; p < 0.003. Float glass is shown to be a promising reference floor material for the measurement of CoF of footwear; there was no statistical difference between results for the two sides of the glass sheet. Float glass could be used in the development of a standard CoF test method because new sheets of glass from the same manufacturer are identical and extremely smooth. The specification of CoF values for solings/floors combinations in lubricated conditions is of little value unless associated with roughness measurements and knowledge of how wear will affect the surface roughness of the sole. This article reports the first evidence that any specification of flooring by measuring CoF based on dry surfaces could lead to an increase in the number of injuries caused by slipping on the wet surfaces. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd     

消融的冰川：加拿大班夫国家公园亚高山带鲍湖中持久性有机氯的主要来源

有机氯杀虫剂和多氯联苯（PCB）是环境中普遍而稳固的化合物。现已查明，由于它们从温暖的地区逐渐蒸发出来，并在较冷的地区凝聚下来，因而它们富集在寒冷的环境中。在本研究中，我们的结果是，消融的冰川供给阿尔伯达亚高山带湖泊中的有机氯输入量为50%～97％，而提供的水量为73％。对氚的分析结果表明，在夏季的中、晚期，至少10％的冰川消融物是在1950～1970年期间沉积下来的，这期间它受到有机氯更多的污染。这一发现表明，气候变暖可能会使消融的冰川成为日益增多的淡水污染物来源。由于有机物贫乏的冰川粘土对多氯联苯这样的疏水化合物的吸附能力有限，因此冰川水流带来的有机氯大多呈溶解状态。     

Hygroscopic organic aerosols during BRAVO?

The hygroscopic properties of the organic fraction of aerosols are poorly understood. The ability of organic aerosols to absorb water as a function of relative humidity (RH) was examined using data collected during the 1999 Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational Study (BRAVO). (On average, organics accounted for 22% of fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm (PM2.5) mass). Hourly RH exceeded 80% only 3.5% of the time and averaged 44%. BRAVO aerosol chemical composition and dry particle size distributions were used to estimate PM2.5 light scattering (Bsp) at low and high ambient RH. Liquid water growth associated with inorganic species was sufficient to account for measured Bsp for RH between 70 and 95%.     

Bioaccumulation of PCBs in Arctic seabirds: influence of dietary exposure and congener biotransformation

Four seabird species and their prey (zooplankton or fish) were collected in the Barents Sea to determine how dietary exposure, cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzyme activities and sex influenced their hepatic PCB concentrations and accumulation patterns. Five males and five females from each seabird species (little auk (Alle alle), Brunnich's guillemot (Uria lomvia), black guillemot (Cepphus grylle) and black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla)) were analysed. PCB concentrations could not be explained directly by carbon source (delta13C) or trophic position (delta15N), but by a combination of dietary parameters (delta13C, delta15N, migratory pattern, age) and contaminant metabolism. Contrary to previous studies, the PCB pattern differed among seabirds, with a higher proportion of persistent congeners (% of PCB-153, RPCB-153) in black-legged kittiwake than in auks. The PCB pattern also differed among auks, with little auk as the most efficient biotransformer (highest RPCB-153 values of persistent congeners). Based on high RPCB-153 values, Brunnich's guillemot poorly metabolised ortho-meta-unsubstituted congeners, whereas black guillemot poorly metabolised meta-para unsubstituted congeners. Species-specific differences in PCB biotransformation were confirmed by metabolic indices, where PCB patterns in seabirds were adjusted for PCB pattern in prey. The relative contribution of ortho-meta-unsubstituted congeners to SigmaPCBs decreased with increasing EROD activity. There were no differences in PCB concentrations, PCB patterns or cytochrome P450 enzyme activities between males and females. CYP P450 activities (CYP1A- and CYP2B/3A-like: EROD and testosterone 6beta-hydroxylation, respectively) were low and did not correlate with concentrations of non- or mono-ortho Cl-substituted PCBs (NO- and MO-PCBs), or with total toxic equivalent concentrations (TEQs) for dioxin-like effects of NO- and MO-PCBs.     

Using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for blast wave predictions

Explosions will, in most cases, generate blast waves. While simple models (e.g., Multi Energy Method) are useful for simple explosion geometries, most practical explosions are far from trivial and require detailed analyses. For a reliable estimate of the blast from a gas explosion it is necessary to know the explosion strength. The source explosion may not be symmetric; the pressure waves will be reflected or deflected when hitting objects, or even worse, the blast waves may propagate inside buildings or tunnels with a very low rate of decay. The use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) explosion models for near and far field blast wave predictions has many advantages. These include more precise estimates of the energy and resulting pressure of the blast wave, as well as the ability to evaluate non-symmetrical effects caused by realistic geometries, gas cloud variations and ignition locations. This is essential when evaluating the likelihood of a given leak source as cause of an explosion or equally when evaluating the potential risk associated with a given leak source for a consequence analysis.In addition, unlike simple methods, CFD explosion models can also evaluate detailed dynamic effects in the near and far field, which include time dependent pressure loads as well as reflection and focusing of the blast waves. This is particularly valuable when assessing actual near-field blast damage during an explosion investigation or potential near-field damage during a risk analysis for a facility. One main challenge in applying CFD, however, is that these models require more information about the actual facility, including geometry details and process information. Collecting the necessary geometry and process data may be quite time consuming. This paper will show some blast prediction validation examples for the CFD model FLACS. It will also provide examples of how directional effects or interaction with objects can significantly influence the dynamics of the blast wave. Finally, the challenge of obtaining useful predictions with insufficient details regarding the geometry will also be addressed.