Systematic development of an artificial neural network model for real-time prediction of ground-level ozone in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Ground-level ozone is a secondary pollutant that has recently gained notoriety for its detrimental effects on human and vegetation health. In this paper, a systematic approach is applied to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models for ground-level ozone (O3) prediction in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, using ambient monitoring data for input. The intent of these models is to provide regulatory agencies with a tool for addressing data gaps in ambient monitoring information and predicting O3 events. The models are used to determine the meteorological conditions and precursors that most affect O3 concentrations. O3 time-series effects and the efficacy of the systematic approach are also assessed. The developed models showed good predictive success, with coefficient of multiple determination values ranging from 0.75 to 0.94 for forecasts up to 2 hr in advance. The inputs most important for O3 prediction were temperature and concentrations of nitric oxide, total hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide.     

Synthesis of Harvard Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Center studies on traffic-related particulate pollution and cardiovascular outcomes in the Greater Boston Area

The association between particulate pollution and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality is well established. While the cardiovascular effects of nationally regulated criteria pollutants (e.g., fine particulate matter [PM_2.5] and nitrogen dioxide) have been well documented, there are fewer studies on particulate pollutants that are more specific for traffic, such as black carbon (BC) and particle number (PN). In this paper, we synthesized studies conducted in the Greater Boston Area on cardiovascular health effects of traffic exposure, specifically defined by BC or PN exposure or proximity to major roadways. Large cohort studies demonstrate that exposure to traffic-related particles adversely affect cardiac autonomic function, increase systemic cytokine-mediated inflammation and pro-thrombotic activity, and elevate the risk of hypertension and ischemic stroke. Key patterns emerged when directly comparing studies with overlapping exposure metrics and population cohorts. Most notably, cardiovascular risk estimates of PN and BC exposures were larger in magnitude or more often statistically significant compared to those of PM_2.5 exposures. Across multiple exposure metrics (e.g., short-term vs. long-term; observed vs. modeled) and different population cohorts (e.g., elderly, individuals with co-morbidities, young healthy individuals), there is compelling evidence that BC and PN represent traffic-related particles that are especially harmful to cardiovascular health. Further research is needed to validate these findings in other geographic locations, characterize exposure errors associated with using monitored and modeled traffic pollutant levels, and elucidate pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the cardiovascular effects of traffic-related particulate pollutants.

Implications: Traffic emissions are an important source of particles harmful to cardiovascular health. Traffic-related particles, specifically BC and PN, adversely affect cardiac autonomic function, increase systemic inflammation and thrombotic activity, elevate BP, and increase the risk of ischemic stroke. There is evidence that BC and PN are associated with greater cardiovascular risk compared to PM_2.5. Further research is needed to elucidate other health effects of traffic-related particles and assess the feasibility of regulating BC and PN or their regional and local sources.     

Metabolism of the herbicide chlortoluron by human cytochrome P450 3A4

Studies were carried out to investigate the metabolism of herbicide chlortoluron in the microsomal fractions and whole cells of Saccharomyces cerevisiae expressing human cytochrome P450 3A4. Both whole cells and microsomal fractions of yeast expressing human cytochrome P450 3A4 exhibited a typical dithionite-reduced, CO-difference absorbance spectrum with maximum absorbance at 448 nm. Chlortoluron produced a type I binding spectrum with cytochrome P450 3A4 with a K_s value of 200 μM. Chlortoluron was metabolised into four metabolites; hydroxylated-N-monodemethylated, hydroxylated ring methylated, N-didemethylated and N-monodemethylated products. Chlortoluron metabolism was absolutely dependent on NADPH and no metabolism was observed in control transformants.     

Sex ratio varies with egg investment in the red-necked phalarope (Phalaropus lobatus)

Fisher’s sex ratio theory predicts that on average parents should allocate resources equally to the production of males and females. However, when the cost/benefit ratio for producing males versus females differs, the theory predicts that parents may bias production, typically through underproduction of the sex with greater variation in fitness. We tested theoretical predictions in the red-necked phalarope, a polyandrous shorebird with sex-role reversal. Since females are larger and therefore potentially more expensive to produce and may have greater variation in reproductive success, we predicted from Fisher’s hypothesis a male bias in population embryonic sex ratio, and from sex allocation theory, female biases in the clutches of females allocating more resources to reproduction. We measured eggs and chicks and sexed 535 offspring from 163 clutches laid over 6 years at two sites in Alaska. The embryonic sex ratio of 51.1 M:48.9 F did not vary from parity. Clutch sex ratio (% male) was positively correlated with clutch mean egg size, opposite to our prediction. Within clutches, however, egg size did not differ by sex. Male phalarope fitness may be more variable than previously thought, and/or differential investment in eggs may affect the within-sex fitness of males more than females. Eggs producing males were less dense than those producing females, possibly indicating they contained more yolk relative to albumen. Albumen contributes to chick structural size, while yolk supports survivorship after hatch. Sex-specific chick growth strategies may affect egg size and allocation patterns by female phalaropes and other birds.     

Ecological determinism increases with organism size

After much debate, there is an emerging consensus that the composition of many ecological communities is determined both by species traits, as proposed by niche theory, as well as by chance events. A critical question for ecology is, therefore, which attributes of species predict the dominance of deterministic or stochastic processes. We outline two hypotheses by which organism size could determine which processes structure ecological communities, and we test these hypotheses by comparing the community structure in bromeliad phytotelmata of three groups of organisms (bacteria, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates) that encompass a 10 000-fold gradient in body size, but live in the same habitat. Bacteria had no habitat associations, as would be expected from trait-neutral stochastic processes, but still showed exclusion among species pairs, as would be expected from niche-based processes. Macroinvertebrates had strong habitat and species associations, indicating niche-based processes. Zooplankton, with body size between bacteria and macroinvertebrates, showed intermediate habitat associations. We concluded that a key niche process, habitat filtering, strengthened with organism size, possibly because larger organisms are both less plastic in their fundamental niches and more able to be selective in dispersal. These results suggest that the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic processes may be predictable from organism size.     

A test for space limitation with an application to recently settled lobsters

Space limitation in larval settlement can play an important role in the population dynamics of marine species. A novel statistical test for space limitation based on quadrat counts of individuals is described. The test is based on identifying a significant relationship between the relative dispersion of quadrat counts and overall mean density. An application to a time series of quadrat counts of recently settled American lobsters Homarus americanus covering the period 1993–2007 in Casco Bay, Maine, USA (43°45′N; 69°58′W), is presented. For this data set, the null hypothesis that space is not limiting could not be rejected (P = 0.10).     

A framework for sustainable invasive species management: Environmental,social, and economic objectives

Applying the concept of sustainability to invasive species management (ISM) is challenging but necessary, given the increasing rates of invasion and the high costs of invasion impacts and control. To be sustainable, ISM must address environmental, social, and economic factors (or “pillars”) that influence the causes, impacts, and control of invasive species across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Although these pillars are generally acknowledged, their implementation is often limited by insufficient control options and significant economic and political constraints. In this paper, we outline specific objectives in each of these three “pillars” that, if incorporated into a management plan, will improve the plan’s likelihood of sustainability. We then examine three case studies that illustrate how these objectives can be effectively implemented. Each pillar reinforces the others, such that the inclusion of even a few of the outlined objectives will lead to more effective management that achieves ecological goals, while generating social support and long-term funding to maintain projects to completion. We encourage agency directors and policy-makers to consider sustainability principles when developing funding schemes, management agendas, and policy.     

A Method for Ensemble Wildland Fire Simulation

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis is used to characterize the seasonal trend in ERC, autocorrelation of residuals, and daily standard deviation and stochastically generate artificial time series of afternoon fuel moisture. Daily wind speed and direction are sampled stochastically from joint probabilities of historical wind speed and direction for the date range of the fire simulation period. Hundreds or thousands of fire growth simulations are then performed using the synthetic fire weather sequences. The performance of these methods is evaluated in terms of the number of ensemble member simulations, one- versus two-dimensional fire spread simulations, and comparison with results from 91 fires occurring from 2007 to 2009. Simulations were found to be in consistent agreement with observations, but trends indicate that the ensemble average of simulated fire sizes were consistently larger than actual fires whereas the farthest extent burned by fires was underestimated.     

A landscape-scale framework to identify refugia from multiple stressors

From a conservation perspective, quantifying potential refugial capacity has been predominantly focused on climate refugia, which is critical for maintaining the persistence of species and ecosystems. However, protection from other stressors, such as human-induced changes in fire and hydrology, that cause habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation is also necessary to ensure that conservation efforts focused on climate are not undermined by other threats. Thus, conceptual and methodological advances for quantifying potential refugia from multiple anthropogenic stressors are important to support conservation efforts. We devised a new conceptual approach, the domains of refugia, for assessing refugial capacity that identifies areas where exposure to multiple stressors is low. In our framework, patterns of environmental variability (e.g., increased frequency of warm summers), thresholds of resilience, and extent and intensity of stressors are used to identify areas of potential refugia from a suite of ongoing anthropogenic stressors (e.g., changes in fire regime). To demonstrate its utility, we applied the framework to a Southern California landscape. Sites with high refugial capacity (super-refugia sites) had on average 30% fewer extremely warm summers, 20% fewer fire events, 10% less exposure to altered river channels and riparian areas, and 50% fewer recreational trails than the surrounding landscape. Our results suggest that super-refugia sites (∼8200 km²) for some natural communities are underrepresented in the existing protected area network, a finding that can inform efforts to expand protected areas. Our case study highlights how considering exposure to multiple stressors can inform planning and practice to conserve biodiversity in a changing world.     

Effects of the dinoflagellates Karlodinium veneficum and Prorocentrum minimum on early life history stages of the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica)

The bloom-forming dinoflagellates Prorocentrum minimum and Karlodinium veneficum can have detrimental effects on some marine life, including shellfish, but little is known about their effects on early life history stages of bivalves. In the Chesapeake Bay region, blooms of these dinoflagellates overlap with the spawning season of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica. In laboratory experiments, we compared the effects of P. minimum and K. veneficum on the survival and development of embryos and larvae of the eastern oyster. At 10⁴ cells ml⁻¹, P. minimum did not have a negative effect on embryos and larvae in 2-day exposures. The yield of D-hinge larvae was equal to or greater than in control treatments. At 2 × 10⁴ cells ml⁻¹ (approximately equal biomass to the P. minimum treatment) K. veneficum caused significant mortality to oyster embryos within 1 day and almost no embryos developed into D-hinge larvae. This effect was not alleviated by the provision of an alternate food source (Isochrysis sp.). Significant mortality was observed when larvae were exposed to K. veneficum at concentrations of 10⁴ cells ml⁻¹ (approximately 5 ng ml⁻¹ of karlotoxin). The K. veneficum cultures used in these experiments were relatively low in toxin content, more toxic strains could be expected to cause mortality at lower cell concentrations. Survival and maturation of embryos and larvae may be reduced when spawns of the eastern oyster coincide with high bloom densities of K. veneficum.