Design-based estimation in environmental surveys with positional errors

The recent increased availability of information about the micro-geographic positions of population units in environmental surveys has led to important developments in spatial sampling methodologies and, as a result, has improved the estimation accuracy. In real data, however, information about the location of units is often affected by inaccuracy about their exact spatial positions, and these non-sampling errors can affect the estimation procedure. This paper aims to investigate the effects of positional errors on total estimation through a Monte-Carlo simulation study based on real populations of trees. Starting from perfect positioning, we examine two typical types of coarsening that frequently impact two different species of trees. The simulation results show that the exploitation of spatial information to estimate population totals continues to be relevant in the context of environmental surveys, even in the presence of inaccuracies.     

Correlation structure between inflation and oil futures returns: An equilibrium approach

We use an equilibrium model of a monetary economy to understand the economics behind the correlation between inflation and oil futures returns. We find that some of the positive correlation found in empirical studies is due to the fact that oil is in the consumption basket; however, this accounts only for a minor part of it. There exist other important sources of correlation related to monetary shocks and output shocks. In particular, we find that the correlation is extremely sensitive to the reaction of the central bank to output shocks, while the reaction to inflation changes is less significant. We estimate our model using maximum likelihood with the following data sets: crude oil futures prices, nominal interest rates, inflation rates and money supply growth rates. Our estimates suggest that the monetary authority overreacts to output shocks by increasing the money supply in a more than necessary amount, generating a significant source of positive correlation. From a practical perspective, We find that it is a good strategy to use as a hedge, the futures whose maturity is closer to the hedging horizon. This is particularly true for short-term hedging.     

Recent strandings of the giant jellyfish Rhizostoma luteum Quoy and Gaimard, 1827 (Cnidaria: Scyphozoa: Rhizostomeae) on the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts

We present reports of sightings of living and stranded specimens of Rhizostoma luteum on the Atlantic coast of Morocco and along the south shore of the Iberian Peninsula in June–July 2012 and in January–February 2013. During summer 2012 and following the dominant currents, the jellyfish first appeared in the Gulf of Cadiz west of the Strait of Gibraltar. Subsequently, seven additional sightings were reported east of the Strait, in the Alboran Sea. In winter 2013, another event of stranded individuals of this species occurred in the Gulf of Cadiz. A phylogenetic analysis performed on the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene sequence in specimens from both stranding events confirmed the morphological classification, ratifying that R. luteum differs from Rhizostoma octopus and Rhizostoma pulmo. This study records the presence of this species for the first time in 60 years.     

Egg testosterone affects wattle color and trait covariation in the ring-necked pheasant

Transfer of maternal hormones to the eggs is a major source of offspring phenotypic variation. The developmental and organizational effects of egg hormones can extend into adulthood and affect behavioral and morphological traits involved in sexual and reproductive behavior, with important consequences for offspring fitness. In this study, we injected testosterone (T) in egg albumen of captive ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) eggs. We then assessed the consequences for chick growth, cell-mediated immunity, and multiple male secondary sexual traits at maturity by comparison with a control group. We also compared the covariation between traits in the two experimental groups. We found that control males had redder wattles than males from T-injected eggs, suggesting that attractiveness and reproductive success of the offspring might vary depending on maternal transfer of T to the eggs. T treatment also modified the covariation between cell-mediated immunity and wattle coloration and between the area of the wattle and the expression of another secondary sexual trait, the ear tufts. These effects are likely to translate into fitness differences among the offspring if mate acquisition depends on the simultaneous expression of several traits that are differentially affected by the same maternal contribution. Maternal effects mediated by egg hormones might affect the fitness of the offspring not only by directional modification of phenotypic traits, but also by facilitating or inhibiting their covariation. This suggests the possibility that female choice based on the relative expression of multiple secondary sexual traits exerts a pressure on how maternal transfer of androgens contributes to developmental programs.     

Are CO2 Emissions Stationary After All? New Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - This study applies a large battery of state-of-the-art nonlinear unit root tests to examine the stationarity properties of carbon dioxide emission series...