A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling for sampling effort

Recent large-scale studies have shown that biodiversity-rich regions also tend to be densely populated areas. The most obvious explanation is that biodiversity and human beings tend to match the distribution of energy availability, environmental stability and/or habitat heterogeneity. However, the species–people correlation can also be an artefact, as more populated regions could show more species because of a more thorough sampling. Few studies have tested this sampling bias hypothesis. Using a newly collated dataset, we studied whether Orthoptera species richness is related to human population size in Italy’s regions (average area 15,000 km²) and provinces (2,900 km²). As expected, the observed number of species increases significantly with increasing human population size for both grain sizes, although the proportion of variance explained is minimal at the provincial level. However, variations in observed Orthoptera species richness are primarily associated with the available number of records, which is in turn well correlated with human population size (at least at the regional level). Estimated Orthoptera species richness (Chao2 and Jackknife) also increases with human population size both for regions and provinces. Both for regions and provinces, this increase is not significant when controlling for variation in area and number of records. Our study confirms the hypothesis that broad-scale human population–biodiversity correlations can in some cases be artefactual. More systematic sampling of less studied taxa such as invertebrates is necessary to ascertain whether biogeographical patterns persist when sampling effort is kept constant or included in models.     

Suicidal behavior by motor vehicle collision

BACKGROUND: The ability for suicides of drivers to be disguised as traffic accidents raises the possibility that suicidal behaviors of this nature are far more prevalent than previously thought, potentially impacting health, road safety, and insurance companies. METHOD: Persons residing at the Gold Coast, Australia, identified as having a history of suicidal ideation and behaviors (n = 1,196), were sent a mail-out survey after their consent was obtained in initial telephone contact (CATI random digit-dialing). Among those responding, 412 had made suicide plans or arrangements and 228 suicide attempts. RESULTS: Of those who reported planning a suicide, 14.8% (19.1% of male planners and 11.8% of female planners) had conceived to have a motor vehicle "accident" (n = 61). Of all attempters, 8.3% (13.3% of male attempters) had previously attempted via motor vehicle collision (n = 19). All attempters reported having emotional or mental problems at the time of the event. Suicide planners were significantly more likely to be in full-time employment and have a partner and children compared with other planners. CONCLUSION: The study gives a rare insight into driver suicide plans and attempts, via a large-scale community survey, to provide the best opportunity of collecting unbiased data on the driver suicide behavior. Results suggest the use of this method, particularly in attempts made by males, may be underreported leading to inaccuracy of statistics. The motives behind choosing this method are somewhat different to those behind other methods, including financial benefits and eliminating stigma in the aftermath of a suicide.     

Analysis of sex sequences by means of generalized linear mixed models

Adaptive strategies of sex allocation functioning to increase fitness, including strategic allocation of sex in relation to birth order and sex composition of the progeny, have frequently been explored, but the development of a statistical framework for these analyses has lagged behind. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap by devising a method for analyzing sex sequences based on a proper parameterization of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). The method is highly flexible and can be easily extended to investigate sequences of traits or events or other longitudinal data. As a worked example, we focus on the analysis of sex sequences of offspring produced by females in a single reproductive event and develop a method that allows analyzing simultaneously sequences of different length (e.g., clutches of different size) and sequences with missing data, as may frequently happen in “real-world” data sets. Different patterns of allocation among traits or events along the sequence were investigated, and a real data base of sex sequences of eclectus parrots (Eclectus roratus) fledglings produced by different females was analyzed. A tutorial for running the analyses with the R or the SAS software is provided in the Electronic Supplementary Material.     

Multi-causal and integrated assessment of sustainability: the case of agriculturization in the Argentine Pampas

Assessing the sustainability of complex development processes requires multi-causal and integrated analyses. We develop a system-based methodology, rooted in interdisciplinary discussion and consensus building between 15 experts, to construct a multi-causal diagram which examines the sustainability of the Argentine Pampas′ process of agriculturization. The resulting diagram includes 25 factors and provides a big-picture of the multiple dimensions and interrelations affecting sustainability. According to this examination, the increasing concentration of production and the incorporation of technological innovations, triggered by economic and institutional factors, are the cause of environmental distresses and social changes, whose consequences for sustainability are still highly disputed. Nevertheless, the symptoms of both environmental and social unsustainability are more evident in the case of the extra-Pampean regions than in the Pampas. This suggests that the Pampean agriculture model should not be transferred to these regions without substantial modifications. The experts did not reach consensus on whether the agriculturization process is overall sustainable or unsustainable. Lack of consensus revolved mainly around opposing perspectives regarding the significance of the threats to environmental sustainability. The magnitude of socio-distributive unbalance and loss of rural jobs were also contentious. Yet, the paper shows how the exercise of building a joint causal diagram was undoubtedly helpful for linking piece-meal disciplinary facts, brought in from all fronts, into a comprehensive and coherent picture. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Predicting and setting conservation priorities for Bolivian mammals based on biological correlates of the risk of decline

The recognition that growing proportions of species worldwide are endangered has led to the development of comparative analyses to elucidate why some species are more prone to extinction than others. Understanding factors and patterns of species vulnerability might provide an opportunity to develop proactive conservation strategies. Such comparative analyses are of special concern at national scales because this is the scale at which most conservation initiatives take place. We applied powerful ensemble learning models to test for biological correlates of the risk of decline among the Bolivian mammals to understand species vulnerability at a national scale and to predict the population trend for poorly known species. Risk of decline was nonrandomly distributed: higher proportions of large‐sized taxa were under decline, whereas small‐sized taxa were less vulnerable. Body mass, mode of life (i.e., aquatic, terrestrial, volant), geographic range size, litter size, home range, niche specialization, and reproductive potential were strongly associated with species vulnerability. Moreover, we found interacting and nonlinear effects of key traits on the risk of decline of mammals at a national scale. Our model predicted 35 data‐deficient species in decline on the basis of their biological vulnerability, which should receive more attention in order to prevent their decline. Our results highlight the relevance of comparative analysis at relatively narrow geographical scales, reveal previously unknown factors related to species vulnerability, and offer species‐by‐species outcomes that can be used to identify targets for conservation, especially for insufficiently known species. Predección y Definición de Prioridades de Conservación para Mamíferos de Bolivia con Base en Correlaciones Biológicas del Riesgo de Declinación     

Unsafe waters: the hydrosocial cycle of drinking water in Western Mexico

ABSTRACT

Mexico faces multiple water quality challenges, both in terms of the water supplied to the population as well as surface and underground water sources. Problems with drinking water supply affect the population in diverse ways, from associated health risks to high levels of intermittency in service to the poor perception of the quality of piped water – leading to high levels of bottled water consumption. In this text we explore the issue of drinking water quality in three contexts in the state of Jalisco: in Guadalajara, the state’s main urban area, in the peri-urban municipality of El Salto, and in the mid-sized city of San Juan de los Lagos. Our analysis explores drinking water regulations, the water quality monitoring undertaken by state and local authorities, access to information, as well as the actions and perceptions of water service providers. Looking at cases of indirect reuse of wastewater as well as groundwater sources with high levels of fluoride and arsenic, we argue that the foregrounding of water quality is key to illuminating social inequalities in access to water and in teasing out power relations prevailing in current hydrosocial regimes. We conclude that this hydrosocial cycle of drinking water is characterised by prioritising access to water for economic actors, facilitated by lax regulations and minimal enforcement, as well as by the systematic neglect by government authorities at all levels of the protection of watersheds and aquifers, and of water quality issues generally.     

Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas

World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. We brought together these approaches by performing a complementarity‐based analysis of irreplaceability in important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs), which are sites identified using a threshold‐based approach. We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focused on 3 regions with comprehensive IBA inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, southern Africa, and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with the presence and number of restricted‐range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified (trigger species). In addition, IBAs were characterized by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, which indicates a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of key biodiversity areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches such as IBAs. Our results informed this consultation, and in particular a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches.     

Sex-specific effects of albumen removal and nest environment manipulation on Barn Swallow nestlings

In avian species, maternal provisioning to the eggs is predicted to be more valuable for the offspring under adverse environmental conditions and intense sibling competition. However, studies manipulating both the amount of maternal pre-hatching resources and the harshness of post-hatching environment have seldom been performed to date. In this experimental study of Barn Swallow (Hirundo rustica) nestlings, we tested the consequences of a reduction in the albumen content of the eggs for fitness-related offspring traits, while performing an unbalanced partial cross-fostering soon after hatching, either increasing or decreasing brood size by one nestling. By molecular sexing of the chicks, we additionally tested for sex-specific sensitivity of individual nestlings to experimental treatments and to sex ratio variation in nestmates. We predicted that chicks hatching from albumen-deprived eggs should suffer more than control chicks from the harsher rearing conditions of enlarged broods. However, although albumen removal depressed chick body mass, chicks hatching from control eggs did not fare better than those hatching from eggs with reduced albumen content in enlarged vs. reduced broods. Albumen removal had sex-specific effects on immunity, with males, but not females, hatching from eggs with reduced albumen content showing a lower T-cell-mediated immune response than controls, suggesting that the two sexes were differentially susceptible to resource deprivation during early ontogeny. In addition, both immune response and chick body mass at age 7 days, when maximum growth rate is attained, declined with an increasing proportion of male nestmates. The effect of brood size manipulation on chick body mass at age 12 days, when peak body mass is attained, was also found to depend on brood sex composition, in that an increase in the proportion of male nestmates depressed offspring body mass in reduced broods, while the reverse was true in enlarged broods. On the whole, these findings suggest that sex differences may exist in environmental sensitivity and patterns of resource allocation among different body functions, and that brood size variation and sex composition may affect offspring fitness-related traits.     

Effects of different management strategies on long-term trends of Australian threatened and near-threatened mammals

Monitoring is critical to assess management effectiveness, but broadscale systematic assessments of monitoring to evaluate and improve recovery efforts are lacking. We compiled 1808 time series from 71 threatened and near-threatened terrestrial and volant mammal species and subspecies in Australia (48% of all threatened mammal taxa) to compare relative trends of populations subject to different management strategies. We adapted the Living Planet Index to develop the Threatened Species Index for Australian Mammals and track aggregate trends for all sampled threatened mammal populations and for small (<35 g), medium (35–5500 g), and large mammals (>5500 g) from 2000 to 2017. Unmanaged populations (42 taxa) declined by 63% on average; unmanaged small mammals exhibited the greatest declines (96%). Populations of 17 taxa in havens (islands and fenced areas that excluded or eliminated introduced red foxes [Vulpes vulpes] and domestic cats [Felis catus]) increased by 680%. Outside havens, populations undergoing sustained predator baiting initially declined by 75% but subsequently increased to 47% of their abundance in 2000. At sites where predators were not excluded or baited but other actions (e.g., fire management, introduced herbivore control) occurred, populations of small and medium mammals declined faster, but large mammals declined more slowly, than unmanaged populations. Only 13% of taxa had data for both unmanaged and managed populations; index comparisons for this subset showed that taxa with populations increasing inside havens declined outside havens but taxa with populations subject to predator baiting outside havens declined more slowly than populations with no management and then increased, whereas unmanaged populations continued to decline. More comprehensive and improved monitoring (particularly encompassing poorly represented management actions and taxonomic groups like bats and small mammals) is required to understand whether and where management has worked. Improved implementation of management for threats other than predation is critical to recover Australia's threatened mammals.     

Inactivation of Viruses and Bacteriophages as Models for Swine Hepatitis E Virus in Food Matrices

Hepatitis E virus has been recognised as a food-borne virus hazard in pork products, due to its zoonotic properties. This risk can be reduced by adequate treatment of the food to inactivate food-borne viruses. We used a spectrum of viruses and bacteriophages to evaluate the effect of three food treatments: high pressure processing (HPP), lactic acid (LA) and intense light pulse (ILP) treatments. On swine liver at 400 MPa for 10 min, HPP gave log₁₀ reductions of ≥4.2, ≥5.0 and 3.4 for feline calicivirus (FCV) 2280, FCV wildtype (wt) and murine norovirus 1 (MNV 1), respectively. Escherichia coli coliphage ?X174 displayed a lower reduction of 1.1, while Escherichia coli coliphage MS2 was unaffected. For ham at 600 MPa, the corresponding reductions were 4.1, 4.4, 2.9, 1.7 and 1.3 log₁₀. LA treatment at 2.2 M gave log₁₀ reductions in the viral spectrum of 0.29–2.1 for swine liver and 0.87–3.1 for ham, with ?X174 and MNV 1, respectively, as the most stable microorganisms. The ILP treatment gave log₁₀ reductions of 1.6–2.8 for swine liver, 0.97–2.2 for ham and 1.3–2.3 for sausage, at 15–60 J cm^?2, with MS2 as the most stable microorganism. The HPP treatment gave significantly (p < 0.05) greater virus reduction on swine liver than ham for the viruses at equivalent pressure/time combinations. For ILP treatment, reductions on swine liver were significantly (p < 0.05) greater than on ham for all microorganisms. The results presented here could be used in assessments of different strategies to protect consumers against virus contamination and in advice to food producers. Conservative model indicators for the pathogenic viruses could be suggested.