Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government’s ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (“hidden disaster deficits”) when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today’s extreme events and does not discuss in detail projections of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change.     

Physical conditions for trapping air by a microtrichia-covered insect cuticle during temporary submersion

The intertidal midge Clunio, which reproduces on exposed rocky seashores, becomes enclosed in an irregularly shaped air bubble during short submersion by incoming waves. This water-repellent property of Clunio’s cuticle is caused by a complete cover of hydrophobic microtrichia offering an effective surf tolerance. These microtrichia not only trap a thin air layer above the cuticle but also maintain a larger air bubble between the insect’s ventral side and legs. The effectiveness of the water repellence was quantitatively characterised on the basis of a known model (Crisp and Thorpe, Discuss Faraday Soc 3:210–220, 1948). The parameters of the model are the contact angle θ (>90°) at the contact line of air/water/microtrichia and the distance between individual microtrichia and their radius. When the microtrichia are 1.1 μm apart and have a radius of 0.1 μm and an estimated contact angle θ of 140°, the air layer is stable against hydrostatic pressures of up to 3 m water column. As shown by a modified version of the model, considerably larger air bubbles can be trapped by the microtrichia cover of the legs up to distances of 0.5 mm from the body. The widely spaced (about 8 μm apart) and longer setae of Clunio are not involved in the formation of air layers and air bubble.     

Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa. Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi

This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.

What drives the water quality changes in the Selenga Basin: climate change or socio-economic development?

Regional Environmental Change - Lake Baikal is the largest near-surface global freshwater source and of high interest for water quality alterations, as deterioration of water quality is a main...     

An improved approach for identifying suitable habitat of Sambar Deer (Cervus unicolor Kerr) using ecological niche analysis and environmental categorization: Case study at Phu-Khieo Wildlife Sanctuary,Thailand

To assess habitat suitability (HS) has become an increasingly important component of species/ecosystem management. HS assessment is usually based on presence/absence data related to environmental variables. An exception is Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), which uses only presence data and which does not require absence data. Most HS modelling is based on input of all environmental parameters (EnvPs) without environmental categorization, and does not take into account species interaction and human intervention for an assessment of HS. In this study, the EnvPs are arranged into four features: geographical features, consumable features, human-factor features, and species–human interaction features. These features affect species with respect to movement, behavior and activity. The research presented here has used an already existing dataset of wildlife species and human activities/visitations, which was compiled during 2004–2006 in Phu-Khieo Wildlife Sanctuary (PKWS). Data from 2004 to 2005 were used to produce HS maps, while the data of 2006 were used for evaluating these maps. Sambar Deer (SD) was chosen to predict its own HS. Six HS maps of SD were analyzed using ENFA in the following manner: (1) inputting all EnvPs together, (2) inputting each feature, separately and (3) integrating the four resulting HS maps by model averaging. It was found that model averaging was capable of predicting the HS of SD more reliably than the model with all EnvPs put in together. Multiple linear regressions were computed between the HS map with all EnvPs and the HS maps with each feature. The results show that the HS map with only geographical features has the highest coefficient value (0.516) while the coefficient values of other HS maps with the above features are 0.296, 0.53 and −0.006, respectively. This indicates that the geographical features have an influence on the other features and that the predicting power is lower when all EnvPs are computed in the ENFA model. Therefore, in order to generate HS, each feature should at first be put into the model separately. Following that, the average of all features will be combined.     

Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers’ perception and practices

Climate change is a global challenge that has a particularly strong effect on developing countries such as Nepal, where adaptive capacity is low and where agriculture, which is highly dependent on climatic factors, is the main source of income for the majority of people. The nature and extent of the effects of climate change on rural livelihoods varies across Nepal in accordance with its highly diverse environmental conditions. In order to capture some of this variability, a comparative study was performed in two different ecological regions: Terai (lowland) and Mountain (upland) in the western development region of Nepal. The study focuses on perceptions of, and on adaptations to climate change by farmers. Information was collected from both primary and secondary data sources. Climate data were analyzed through trend analysis. Results show that most farmers perceive climate change acutely and respond to it, based on their own indigenous knowledge and experiences, through both agricultural and non-agricultural adaptations at an individual level. The study also shows that there is a need to go beyond the individual level, and to plan and provide support for appropriate technologies and strategies in order to cope with the expected increasing impacts of climate change.     

A field comparison of BTEX mass flow rates based on integral pumping tests and point scale measurements

Measuring contaminant flow rates at control cross sections is the most accurate method to evaluate natural attenuation processes in the saturated subsurface. In most instances, point scale measurement is the method of choice due to practical reasons and cost factors. However, at many field sites, the monitoring network is too sparse for a reliable estimation of contaminant and groundwater flow rates. Therefore, integral pumping tests have been developed as an alternative. In this study, we compare mass flow rates obtained by integral pumping test results and point scale data. We compare results of both methods with regard to uncertainties due to estimation errors and mass flow estimations based on two different point scale networks. The differences between benzene and groundwater flow rate estimates resulting from point scale samples and integral pumping tests were 6.44% and 6.97%, respectively, demonstrating the applicability of both methods at the site. Point scale-based data, especially with use of cost efficient Direct-Push technique, can be applied to show the contaminant distribution at a site and may be followed by a denser point scale network or an integral method. Nevertheless, a combination of both methods decreases uncertainties.     

Livelihood change and livelihood sustainability in the uplands of Lembang subwatershed, West Sumatra, Indonesia, in a changing natural resource management context

This paper analyzes livelihood change and livelihood sustainability of households in the upland part of the Lembang subwatershed, West Sumatra, in response to changes in the natural resource management context during the last decade. Using the sustainable livelihood framework (SLF), we measured livelihood changes at two separate points in time, 1996 and 2006, and assessed their environmental, economic, social, and institutional sustainability. We found that people with a low income had less access to capital assets than people from middle- and high-income groups. Our analysis revealed, however, that access to capital assets increased over time, and that poor households experienced economic improvement, indicating an overall increase in economic sustainability. Environmental sustainability, however, is threatened by intensive agricultural practices such as high agrochemical input and intensive soil tillage on steep slopes, leading to pollution and soil erosion. Social sustainability is also a matter of concern: while social exclusion has been reduced, income inequity has increased. Institutional sustainability is likely to remain uncertain, as local institutions for natural resource management are still weak, despite the fact that decentralization has been implemented during the last 8 years. External facilitation is needed to improve the livelihood of upland people while, at the same time, enhancing the sustainability of watershed management. Strengthening local institutions, conserving natural resources, and promoting environmentally sound agricultural practices are the three most important policies to be promoted within the watershed.     

Formation of oxidation by-products of the iodinated X-ray contrast medium iomeprol during ozonation

The present work describes the investigation of the formation of oxidation by-products of the iodinated X-ray contrast medium (ICM) iomeprol during ozonation in water treatment. Bench-scale investigations revealed that ICM can be partly oxidized during ozonation processes, whereas the ionic diatrizoic acid showed the lowest reactivity. Iomeprol, as a representative of ICM, was not fully mineralized during ozonation. Thus, unknown oxidation by-products were formed. Aqueous solutions of iomeprol were treated by ozonation in order to assess the formation of oxidation by-products. The by-products were characterized by different liquid chromatography methods including detection of single-stage mass spectra, product ion mass spectra, and induced in-source fragmentation for analysis of iodine containing oxidation by-products. Aldehyde and carbonyl containing compounds were proposed to be among the stable by-products. A derivatization step confirms that the aldehyde and carbonyl moieties are major functional groups in oxidation by-products of iomeprol. Furthermore, oxidation by-products of iomeprol were detected at the outlet of an ozone reactor at a full-scale waterworks. However, the toxicological relevance of the by-products is a major future research tasks.