Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions

Carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2100 AD are decomposed into the product of four factors: population size, affluence (measured here as GDP per capita), energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit energy). These emissions factors are further subdivided into three regions: more developed countries (MDCs), China, and the remaining less developed countries (LDCs). Departures from a baseline scenario (based on IPCC, 1992a — the so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario) are calculated for a variety of alternative assumptions concerning the four emissions factors in the three regions. Although the IPCC scenario is called a ‘non-intervention’ scenario, it is shown, for example, that large decreases in energy intensity in China or carbon intensity in MDCs are built into the ‘business as usual’ case — and such large changes vary considerably from region to region. We show what CO₂ emissions would look like if each of these four emissions factors projected in the baseline case somehow remained constant at 1990 levels. Certain factors like energy intensity improvements and long-term population growth in LDCs, or GDP growth and carbon intensity improvements in MDCs, are shown to have a big contribution to cumulative global emissions to 2100 AD, and consequently, changes in these projected factors will lead to significant deviations from baseline emissions. None of the scenarios examined in this analysis seems to indicate that any one global factor is clearly dominant, but cultural, economic, and political costs or opportunities of altering each factor may differ greatly from country to country.     

Portrait of an Asian stalk-eyed fly

Diopsid flies have eyes set on stalks which are in some cases so long that the distance between the eyes exceeds the body length. These conspicuous structures have given rise to much speculation about their adaptive value, but there are very few actual observations by which to judge these hypotheses.Cyrtodiopsis whitei Curran lives in the tropical rainforest of Malaysia. We describe a number of aspects of its morphology and biology, some functional properties of the eye, and the ritualized fights between males, by which harems are acquired. The evolutionary significance of the eyestalks is discussed: they represent structures subjected to a double selection pressure; they are an adaptation by which a sensory system is better matched to the special problems encountered in a densely structured habitat (in that the field of view is extended and the ability to estimate distance and size and to identify objects at a large distance is improved), also they act as key stimulus for species recognition and as releaser for intraspecific behaviour.     

Radioluminescence Dating: A New Tool for Quaternary Geology and Archaeology

 Natural minerals, such as widespread quartz and feldspars, have physical properties which enable them to be used as radiation dosimeters. The underlying luminescence phenomena have made it possible in recent decades to determine the age of a variety of materials important for quaternary geochronometry and archaeochronometry. We present a new luminescence dating method based on radioluminescence measurements of potassium feldspar. For the first time we have been able to investigate the light-emitting transition of electrons from the conduction band to an optically sensitive electron trap. Many advantages can be derived from such direct measurements of the metastable electron density in this particular trap, which produces the age-dependent signal. The method can be used to date the last light exposure of feldspar grains within a range of a few hundred to more than 200,000 years. Examples are presented of age determination of various waterlaid quaternary sands. The results of a basic study of feldspar radioluminescence also shed light on effects not sufficiently understood in conventional dating by luminescence techniques, especially in infrared optically stimulated luminescence dating of feldspar. Received: 6 August 1998 / Accepted in revised form: 14 April 1999