Assessing potential future urban heat island patterns following climate scenarios,socio-economic developments and spatial planning strategies

Climate change and urban development will exacerbate current urban heat island effects. While most studies acknowledge the importance of projected temperature increases for raising urban temperatures, little attention is paid to the impacts of future changes in urbanisation patterns. Yet, steering urban development may be an effective strategy to further limit increases in the intensity and spreading of the urban heat island effect. We describe a method that allows exploring the impact of urban development scenarios on the urban heat island effect. This paper starts with a basic analysis of the strength of this effect in a temperate climate under relatively favourable conditions based on data from amateur weather stations and own observations. It explains local variation in observed temperatures and quantifies how the urban heat island effect may develop in the coming 30 years. Using the obtained relations, we assess potential future changes building on existing scenarios of climatic and socio-economic changes and a land use simulation model. Our measurements for the Amsterdam region in the Netherlands indicate that the urban heat island effect induces maximum temperature differences with the surrounding countryside of over 3 °C on moderately warm summer days. The simulations of potential future changes indicate that strong local temperature increases are likely due to urban development. Climate change will, on average, have a limited impact on these changes. Large impacts can, however, be expected from the combination of urban development and potentially more frequent occurrences of extreme climatic events such as heat waves. Spatial planning strategies that reduce the lateral spread of urban development will thus greatly help to limit a further increase in urban heat island values.     

Application to the Port of Sines of a new tool for risk assessment in port navigation

This paper describes a first approach on the risk assessment in port navigation using GUIOMAR, an integrated system for port and coastal engineering modelling developed at the National Civil Engineering Laboratory (LNEC), Portugal, using a GIS software environment. A set of automatic procedures was designed to include a new methodology based on the amplitude of the wave-induced vertical movement of a ship along its trajectory. In this methodology, the risk in port navigation is assessed on the basis of a combination of the probability of exceedance of a pre-set threshold for the ship??s vertical movements and its consequences. To test the new procedures, a set of sea wave records obtained at the Sines wave-buoy from 1988 to 2002 was transferred into Sines Port using two numerical models of sea wave propagation and deformation (SWAN and DREAMS), included in the GUIOMAR system. The numerical model WAMIT was used for estimating the wave-induced ship??s vertical movements inside the port. By applying the new procedures, automatic generation of risk maps was carried out for navigation in the vicinity of the West breakwater of the Port of Sines. The recent developments contribute towards a more versatile and efficient GUIOMAR system, which results in a more adequate tool to support decision-making processes in port and coastal management.     

Regression models for exceedance data via the full likelihood

Many situations in practice require appropriate specification of operating characteristics under extreme conditions. Typical examples include environmental sciences where studies include extreme temperature, rainfall and river flow to name a few. In these cases, the effect of geographic and climatological inputs are likely to play a relevant role. This paper is concerned with the study of extreme data in the presence of relevant auxiliary information. The underlying model involves a mixture distribution: a generalized Pareto distribution is assumed for the exceedances beyond a high threshold and a non-parametric approach is assumed for the data below the threshold. Thus, the full likelihood including data below and above the threshold is considered in the estimation. The main novelty is the introduction of a regression structure to explain the variation of the exceedances through all tail parameters. Estimation is performed under the Bayesian paradigm and includes model choice. This allows for determination of higher quantiles under each covariate configuration and upper bounds for the data, where appropriate. Simulation results show that the models are appropriate and identifiable. The models are applied to the study of two temperature datasets: maxima in the U.S.A. and minima in Brazil, and compared to other related models.     

Beyond the “General Public”: Implications of Audience Characteristics for Promoting Species Conservation in the Western Ghats Hotspot,India

Understanding how different audience groups perceive wildlife is crucial for the promotion of biodiversity conservation, especially given the key role of flagship species in conservation campaigns. Although the heterogeneity in preferences reinforces the need for campaigns tailored to specific target audiences, many conservation education and awareness campaigns still claim to target the “general public”. Audiences can be segmented according to social, economic, and cultural criteria across which species perceptions are known to vary. Different studies have investigated the preferences of different groups towards certain wildlife species, but these are largely confined to a single conservation stakeholder group, such as tourists, local communities, or potential donors in western countries. In this study, we seek to determine from a multi-stakeholder perspective, audience characteristics that influence perceptions towards wildlife at Valparai, a fragmented plateau in the Western Ghats region of the Western Ghats-Sri Lanka Hotspot. We found that stakeholder group membership was the most important characteristic followed by gender. While some characteristics had a wide-scale effect others were restricted to a few species. Our results emphasize the need to design conservation campaigns with specific audiences in mind, instead of the very often referred to “general public”.     

Comparative study on the susceptibility of freshwater species to copper-based pesticides

Copper compounds have been intentionally introduced into water bodies as aquatic plant herbicides, algicides and molluscicides. Copper-based fertilizers and fungicides have been widely used in agriculture as well. Despite the fact that copper is an essential element for all biota, elevated concentrations of this metal have been shown to affect a variety of aquatic organisms. Nonetheless, comparative studies on the susceptibility of different freshwater species to copper compounds have seldom been performed. This study was conducted to compare toxicity of copper-based pesticides (copper oxychloride, cuprous oxide and copper sulfate) to different freshwater target (Raphidocelis subcapitata, a planktonic alga and Biomphalaria glabrata, a snail) and non-target (Daphnia similis, a planktonic crustacean and Danio rerio, a fish) organisms. Test water parameters were as follows: pH = 7.4 +/- 0.1; hardness 44 +/- 1 mg/l as CaCO3; DO 8-9 mg/l at the beginning and > 4 mg/l at the end; temperature, fish and snails 25 +/- 1 degrees C, Daphnia 20 +/- 2 degrees C, algae 24 +/- 1 degrees C. D. similis (immobilization), 48-h EC50s (95% CLs) ranging from 0.013 (0.011-0.016) to 0.043 (0.033-0.057) mg Cu/l, and R. subcapitata (growth inhibition), 96-h IC50s from 0.071 (0.045-0.099) to 0.137 (0.090-0.174) mg Cu/l, were the most susceptible species. B. glabrata (lethality), 48-h LC50s from 0.179 (0.102-0.270) to 0.854 (0.553-1.457) mg Cu/l, and D. rerio (lethality), 48-h LC50s 0.063 (0.045-0.089), 0.192 (0.133-0.272) and 0.714 (0.494-1.016) mg Cu/l, were less susceptible than Daphnia to copper-based pesticides. Findings from the present study therefore suggest that increased levels of copper in water bodies is likely to adversely affect a variety of aquatic species.