自然灾害与区域经济可持续发展

运用系统工程理论,研究了自然灾害对区域经济持续发展的影响-对区域经济增长、产业结构、资源与环境及区域间经济联系与合作的影响,并对防灾救灾工作提出了建议．     

南黄海6.1级地震电磁辐射异常分析

１９９６年１１月９日２１时５６分南黄海（北纬３１°５０′,东经１２３°０６′）发生了ＭＳ６１地震。本文分析了距震中２９０ｋｍ的江苏省大丰市地震台电磁辐射观测仪在地震前后的观测资料异常记录情况,提出了一些认识,并进行了讨论。     

Formation of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in the process of production of 1,4-dichlorobenzene

The occurrence and distribution of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in a typical process of production of 1,4-dichlorobenzene (p-DCB) were investigated systematically in this study. P5CDFs and H6CDFs were the main congeners of PCDD/Fs, while only low levels of other PCDD/Fs were detected in the samples. The concentrations of PCBs were up to 4614 ng/g in the semi-manufactured products, and 1797 ng/g in the product p-DCB. It was also found that high chlorinated PCB congeners increased with the further chlorination. The levels of PCDD/Fs decreased obviously in the purification process, while PCBs could not be removed effectively. Polychlorophenols and other important dioxin precursors (1,4-dichloro-2-phenoxybenzene and 2-phenyl-2',5,5'-trichlorophenol) were also analyzed. Polychlorophenols which ortho- and para-positions of the hydroxyl were substituted by chlorine were the main congeners. In addition, a possible pathway of the formation of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in the production of p-DCB was presented. The results of this article suggest that re-estimation on the risk of using p-DCB products, especially the products for daily use such as mothballs, is expected.     

江西兴国县农田土壤固碳潜力20a变化研究

通过GIS技术,采集38个农田土壤样品,研究了江西兴国县农田土壤有机碳变化量的空间分布特征.结果表明,20a来,兴国县农田土壤中土壤有机碳增加的面积为621.3km2,减少的面积为38.4km2,增幅主要在0~5g/kg和5~10g/kg;千枚岩、花岗岩、红砂岩、第四纪红粘土和紫色砂页岩发育的土壤中有机碳变化量分布的面积分别为361.7km2、144.7km2、76.5km2、48.7km2和18.0km2,海拔在300m以下、300~500m、500~800m和800m以上的土壤中有机碳变化量分布的面积分别为358.9km2、200.2km2、62.9km2、28.0km2.多元回归分析显示,20a来土壤有机碳变化量和初始含量呈负相关关系,土壤有机碳变化量和海拔、粘粒含量呈正相关关系.图1表2参15     

神经网络模型森林生物量遥感估测方法的研究

森林生物量的估测是全球变化研究的基础,而遥感宏观、综合、动态、快速的特点决定了基于遥感的生物量模型为森林生物量估测的发展方向,目前的遥感生物量估测方法大多基于回归分析,需要预先假设、事后检验,仅为经验性的统计模型。神经网络的分布并行处理、非线性映射、自适应学习和容错等特性,使其具有独特的信息处理和计算能力,在机制尚不清楚的高维非线性系统体现出强大优势,可以用于遥感生物量估测。文章在野外调查的基础上,尝试应用BP网络和RBF网络技术,建立广州TM遥感影像数据与森林样方生物量实测数据之间的神经网络模型,通过训练和仿真,与生物量实测数据进行比较。结果表明,在独立样地估测中,人工神经网络估测的相对误差均小于15.18%,获得了满意的效果。而RBF网络与BP网络相比,在识别精度上、稳定性、速度上,均优于BP网络,其最大相对误差不超过10.12%,平均相对误差为4.76%。可见应用神经网络方法的“黑箱”操作虽然难以归纳出指导性规律,但可以获得很高的精度。尤其RBF网络,在训练完成后,可以应用该模型进行大区域生物量估算,对于森林的规划及管理具有深远意义。     

有机锡化合物对水生无脊椎动物的毒性研究

通过不同层次水生无脊椎动物的毒理学研究，能更好地反映有机化合物的生态效应，以氯化三丁基锡（ＴＢＴＣｌ）为例，结果表明，ＴＢＴＣｌ对原生动物等５种水生无脊椎动物的半致死浓度（ＬＣ５０）为２５．６５－３５５．６３ｐｐｂ，有明显的种特异性，ＴＢＴＣｌ对河口轮虫种群净生殖率ＥＣ５０为１０ｐｐｂ，影响平均寿命ＥＣ５０为２２ｐｐｂ，根据浓度Ｃ及原生动物平衡种类数Ｓｅｑ进行回归，得方程Ｓｅｑ＝１１．８７－１．８     

高效液相色谱法分析水中痕量多环芳烃

本文利用高效液相色谱法测定水中痕量多环芳烃（ＰＡＨｓ）。以二氯甲烷作溶剂,超声提取水中痕量ＰＡＨｓ;甲醇、水作流动相,梯度淋洗,用程序可变波长荧光检测器测定。ＰＨＡｓ浓度为０．００７＝０．６μｇ·ｍｌ＾－１范围时,线性相关系数均在０．９９９９以上;峰高、峰面积的相对标准偏差（ｎ＝１０）分别为１．０１－１．８５％,２．００－３．９４％;检测限（Ｓ／Ｎ＝２）为３．１－２３．０ｐｇ;实际水样的加标回收率     

光子相关光谱（PCS）在无机高分子絮凝剂形态表征中的应用

本文运用现代先进的微粒检测手段光子相关光谱对常见的两类无机高分子絮凝剂的形态进行了表征。实验结果表明：在所测聚合氯化铁溶液中，体系呈较为单一的集中分布，由平移扩散系数计算得到平均有效直径在５－１１ｎｍ左右。在所测聚合氯化铝溶液中，主要为双峰分布，熟化后样品约为２－５ｎｍ的小颗粒与数十ｎｍ以上分布较宽的聚集体，另外，本文对光子相关光谱在形态表征中的优缺点及其它应用的可能性也作了一定的论述。     

利用人工神经网络研究含硫芳香族化合物结构与毒性的关系

本文采用简单的化学基团描述符，运用人工神经网络研究了含硫芳香族化合物对发光菌的性构效关系，并与多元线性回归相比较，结果显示了人工神经网络处理非线性问题的优越性。     

Field studies on 32P movement and P leaching from flooded paddy soils in the region of Taihu Lake, China

Field experiments were done in two sites, Yixing and Changshu, Jiangsu province, China, to study P movement and leaching in flooded paddy soils. P movement in soil was investigated by using the KH2 32PO4 tracker method, and the amount of P leached from the soil layer in different depths was estimated by measuring P concentrations in the soil solution and saturated hydraulic conductivities in field. Determination was done about one month after P application. There was 46% and 42% of total 32P retained in the 0-5cm layer of soil in the Yixing site and in the Changshu site respectively. The 32P retained in the 25-30 cm layer was only about 1-2% of the total 32P added. Furthermore, 8.01% of 32P in the soil of Yixing site and 16.8% of 32P in the soil of Changshu site was lost from the layer 0-30 cm soil. The seasonal amounts of P leached from the top soil layer and from bottom layer are about 4.5-5.8% and 1.6-2.1% of the total P application, respectively. Changes of total P concentrations in soil solutions during rice growth showed that the fertilizer P applied before flooding of the paddy fields suffered a flash leaching loss and a slow leaching loss. We concluded that the fertilizer P could quickly move in the flooded paddy rice field and parts of it can enter into surface water and ground water. Unless the P application is well managed the risk of P loss and consequently environmental pollution exist.