Augmenting Watershed Model Calibration with Incorporation of Ancillary Data Sources and Qualitative Soft Data Sources

Watershed simulation models such as the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be calibrated using “hard data” such as temporal streamflow observations; however, users may find upon examination of model outputs, that the calibrated models may not reflect actual watershed behavior. Thus, it is often advantageous to use “soft data” (i.e., qualitative knowledge such as expected denitrification rates that observed time series do not typically exist) to ensure that the calibrated model is representative of the real world. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of coupling SWAT‐Check (a post‐evaluation framework for SWAT outputs) and IPEAT‐SD (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool‐Soft & hard Data evaluation) to constrain the bounds of soft data during SWAT auto‐calibration. IPEAT‐SD integrates 59 soft data variables to ensure SWAT does not violate physical processes known to occur in watersheds. IPEAT‐SD was evaluated for two case studies where soft data such as denitrification rate, nitrate attributed from subsurface flow to total discharge ratio, and total sediment loading were used to conduct model calibration. Results indicated that SWAT model outputs may not satisfy reasonable soft data responses without providing pre‐defined bounds. IPEAT‐SD provides an efficient and rigorous framework for users to conduct future studies while considering both soft data and traditional hard information measures in watershed modeling.     

Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

South Pole Antarctica observations and modeling results: New insights on HOx radical and sulfur chemistry

Measurements of OH, H₂SO₄, and MSA at South Pole (SP) Antarctica were recorded as a part of the 2003 Antarctic Chemistry Investigation (ANTCI 2003). The time period 22 November, 2003–2 January, 2004 provided a unique opportunity to observe atmospheric chemistry at SP under both natural conditions as well as those uniquely defined by a solar eclipse event. Results under natural solar conditions generally confirmed those reported previously in the year 2000. In both years the major chemical driver leading to large scale fluctuations in OH was shifts in the concentration levels of NO. Like in 2000, however, the 2003 observational data were systematically lower than model predictions. This can be interpreted as indicating that the model mechanism is still missing a significant HO_x sink reaction(s); or, alternatively, that the OH calibration source may have problems. Still a final possibility could involve the integrity of the OH sampling scheme which involved a fixed building site. As expected, during the peak in the solar eclipse both NO and OH showed large decreases in their respective concentrations. Interestingly, the observational OH profile could only be approximated by the model mechanism upon adding an additional HO_x radical source in the form of snow emissions of CH₂O and/or H₂O₂. This would lead one to think that either CH₂O and/or H₂O₂ snow emissions represent a significant HO_x radical source under summertime conditions at SP. Observations of H₂SO₄ and MSA revealed both species to be present at very low concentrations (e.g., 5 × 10⁵ and 1 × 10⁵ molec cm^?3, respectively), but similar to those reported in 2000. The first measurements of SO₂ at SP demonstrated a close coupling with the oxidation product H₂SO₄. The observed low concentrations of MSA appear to be counter to the most recent thinking by glacio-chemists who have suggested that the plateau's lower atmosphere should have elevated levels of MSA. We speculate here that the absence of MSA may reflect efficient atmospheric removal mechanisms for this species involving either dynamical and/or chemical processes.     

Global Urban Growth and the Geography of Water Availability,Quality, and Delivery

Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue. Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially less effective set of strategies.     

A global assessment of chromium pollution using sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) as an indicator species

Chromium (Cr) is a well-known human carcinogen and a potential reproductive toxicant, but its contribution to ocean pollution is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to provide a global baseline for Cr as a marine pollutant using the sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) as an indicator species. Biopsies were collected from free-ranging whales around the globe during the voyage of the research vessel The Odyssey. Total Cr levels were measured in 361 sperm whales collected from 16 regions around the globe detectable levels ranged from 0.9 to 122.6 μg Cr g tissue⁻¹ with a global mean of 8.8 ± 0.9 μg g⁻¹. Two whales had undetectable levels. The highest levels were found in sperm whales sampled in the waters near the Islands of Kiribati in the Pacific (mean = 44.3 ± 14.4) and the Seychelles in the Indian Ocean (mean = 19.5 ± 5.4 μg g⁻¹). The lowest mean levels were found in whales near the Canary Islands (mean = 3.7 ± 0.8 μg g⁻¹) and off of the coast of Sri Lanka (mean = 3.3 ± 0.4 μg g⁻¹). The global mean Cr level in whale skin was 28-times higher than mean Cr skin levels in humans without occupational exposure. The whale levels were more similar to levels only observed previously in human lung tissue from workers who died of Cr-induced lung cancer. We conclude that Cr pollution in the marine environment is significant and that further study is urgently needed.     

Are vocal signals used to recognize individuals during male–male competition in greater prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus cupido)?

Vocal signaling can be an important component of vertebrate communication during social interactions. If vocalizations vary among individuals but are consistent within a given individual, they may be used to discriminate among individuals. In many species, territorial males use vocalizations to discriminate between neighbors and strangers and either respond more aggressively toward strangers relative to neighbors (“dear enemy” effect) or they respond more aggressively toward neighbors relative to strangers (“nasty neighbor” effect). In the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), male vocalizations are an integral part of the display males produce on leks. We investigated whether male greater prairie-chickens discriminate among familiar individuals on their own territory, familiar individuals outside their normal territory and strangers from a nearby lek. Vocal characteristics varied among males, suggesting that vocalizations may potentially be used by prairie-chickens to identify individuals. Males responded to playback of prairie-chicken calls by vocalizing at a faster rate and approaching the playback speaker, but did not vary in their response to the vocalizations based on the identity of the caller. Our results suggest that variation is present among the vocalizations of individual male greater prairie-chickens, but males do not appear to discriminate among familiar individuals and strangers based solely on their “boom” vocalizations. Greater prairie-chicken vocalization likely functions as a way of announcing that a territory is occupied and defended, but it may also serve as a way of advertising to conspecifics or as a signal that is secondary to other forms of communication.     

Sex ratio varies with egg investment in the red-necked phalarope (Phalaropus lobatus)

Fisher’s sex ratio theory predicts that on average parents should allocate resources equally to the production of males and females. However, when the cost/benefit ratio for producing males versus females differs, the theory predicts that parents may bias production, typically through underproduction of the sex with greater variation in fitness. We tested theoretical predictions in the red-necked phalarope, a polyandrous shorebird with sex-role reversal. Since females are larger and therefore potentially more expensive to produce and may have greater variation in reproductive success, we predicted from Fisher’s hypothesis a male bias in population embryonic sex ratio, and from sex allocation theory, female biases in the clutches of females allocating more resources to reproduction. We measured eggs and chicks and sexed 535 offspring from 163 clutches laid over 6 years at two sites in Alaska. The embryonic sex ratio of 51.1 M:48.9 F did not vary from parity. Clutch sex ratio (% male) was positively correlated with clutch mean egg size, opposite to our prediction. Within clutches, however, egg size did not differ by sex. Male phalarope fitness may be more variable than previously thought, and/or differential investment in eggs may affect the within-sex fitness of males more than females. Eggs producing males were less dense than those producing females, possibly indicating they contained more yolk relative to albumen. Albumen contributes to chick structural size, while yolk supports survivorship after hatch. Sex-specific chick growth strategies may affect egg size and allocation patterns by female phalaropes and other birds.     

Mathematical Modeling of Column and Field Dense Nonaqueous Phase Liquid Tracer Tests

Mathematical models for the simulation of dense nonaqueous phase liquid tracer tests (DTTs) in laboratory columns and in the field are developed and examined. The DTT technique is a means of estimating the quantity of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) in a domain of interest in an aquifer. The two-dimensional field DTT model uses the Method of Principal Directions and an asymmetrical upwind algorithm for describing advective transport. Both models include diffusion transport of tracer into and from low-permeability porous structures such as clay lenses, as well as the mass transport kinetics of partitioning tracer to and from the DNAPL droplets. The dependence of the effluent tracer concentration curves on the parameters of the models is explored, and conclusions are drawn regarding the applicability of, and several possible problems with, the DTT technique. Model results indicate that the DTT performs well at locating distributed droplets of DNAPL, but is unlikely to be useful in the assessment of pooled DNAPL.     

Change in Pulmonary Function in Children Associated with Air Pollution Episodes

Pulmonary function of approximately 200 school children in Steubenville, OH was measured before and immediately following air pollution alerts in the fall of 1978 and 1979. TSP concentrations exceeded the National Primary Ambient Air Quality 24 h standards in 1978. SO₂ exceeded the standard in 1979. The children were then reexamined in three weekly visits following each alert. Estimated mean Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) was approximately 2% lower following each alert, although the lowest means were observed one to two weeks after the episodes. Forced Expired Volume in 0.75 sec (FEV_0.75) did not change during the 1978 study, but was 4% lower immediately following the 1979 alert. The children were measured again in five weekly examinations in the spring and fall of 1980. Air pollution levels did not exceed the standards on either occasion. In the spring of 1980, estimated mean FVC and FEV_0.75 showed a decline similar to that observed following the alerts in 1978 and 1979. In the fall of 1980, there were no significant differences in the estimated mean FVC or FEV_0.75 between the examinations. A total of 335 children were tested in the four studies, including 194 who participated in more than one study. The evidence for each child from all the studies was combined in a regression analysis of pulmonary function on TSP and SO₂ average concentrations in the previous 24 h. The distribution of the individual regression coefficients was centered significantly below zero, implying a decrease in pulmonary function with increasing TSP and SO₂ concentrations. The magnitude of the median change was less than 1% of the mean FVC and FEV_0.75 over the range of TSP and SO₂ concentrations observed.