Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age‐structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates, particularly when available evidence indicates a potential transition to higher risk categories.     

Plant availability of zinc and copper in soil after contamination with brass foundry filter dust: effect of four years of aging

We investigated the effect of 4 yr of aging of a noncalcareous soil contaminated with filter dust from a brass foundry (80% w/w ZnO, 15% w/w Cu0.6Zn0.4) on the chemical extractability of Zn and Cu and their uptake by barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), pea (Pisum sativum L.), and sunflower (Helianthus annus L.). Pot experiments were conducted with the freshly contaminated soil (2250 mg kg-1 Zn; 503 mg kg-1 Cu), with the contaminated soil aged for 4 yr in the field (1811 mg kg-1 Zn; 385 mg kg-1 Cu), and with the uncontaminated control soil (136 mg kg-1 Zn; 32 mg kg-1 Cu). In comparison with the uncontaminated soil, the growth of barley and pea was clearly reduced in both contaminated soils, while toxicity symptoms did not systematically vary from the freshly contaminated to the 4 yr aged soil. The sunflower did not grow in the contaminated soils. The slow oxidative dissolution of the brass platelets led to an increase in the solubility and the plant uptake of Cu from the freshly contaminated to the 4 yr aged soil. In an earlier study, we found that the fine-grained ZnO dissolved in the field soil within 9 mo and that about half of the released Zn was incorporated into a layered double hydroxide phase and about half was adsorbed to the soil matrix. These changes in Zn speciation did not lead to a reduction of the Zn contents in the shoots and roots of barley and pea grown in the aged soil as compared with the freshly contaminated soil.     

Maintenance of familiarity and social bonding via communal latrine use in a solitary primate (Lepilemur leucopus)

Latrine use (i.e., the repeated use of specific defecation/urination sites) has been described for several mammals, including carnivores, ungulates, and primates. However, the functional significance of latrine use in primates has not been studied systematically yet. We, therefore, followed 14 radio-collared individuals of the pair-living white-footed sportive lemur (Lepilemur leucopus) for 1097 hours of continuous focal observations to investigate latrine distribution, seasonality of latrine use, as well as age and sex of users to test various hypotheses related to possible functions of latrine use, including territory demarcation, resource defense, signaling of reproductive state, social bonding, and mate defense. All individuals of a social unit exhibited communal use of latrines located in the core area of their territory, supporting the social boding hypothesis. Latrine use seems to facilitate familiarity and social bonding within social units via olfactory communication in this primate that lives in family units but exhibits low levels of spatial cohesion and direct social interactions. In addition, frequency of latrine visitation was higher during nights of perceived intruder pressure, supporting the mate defense hypothesis. However, animals did not react to experimentally introduced feces from neighboring or strange social units, indicating that urine may be the more important component of latrines than feces in this arboreal species. Based on a survey of latrine use and function in other mammals, we conclude that latrines facilitate communication particularly in nocturnal species with limited habitat visibility and in species where individuals are not permanently cohesive because they constitute predictable areas for information exchange.     

Carbon Monoxide Levels in Athletes during Exercise in an Urban Environment

ABSTRACT

Gas phase concentrations of individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were measured in real time in combustion products from a co-flow diffusion flame using laser photoionization (LP) time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TOF/MS). In particular, a naphthalene detection sensitivity of 4 parts per billion (ppb) was demonstrated. The use of calibration mixtures with argon indicated the feasibility of naphthalene detection at about 45 parts per trillion (ppt) at a signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio of 20. This suggests the possibility of low-ppt level detection at a S/N of 1. The novelty of the system is the use of a heated sampling probe and a continuously purged, heated-pulse valve that was positioned close to the ionization zone, thereby allowing the generation of photoions in the high-density region of the sample jet, where concentrations of PAH are high. Because the system developed allows for the real time detection of select species, it represents a useful tool in continuous emissions monitoring (CEM) for environmental compliance as well as direct process control.     

Congenital erythropoietic porphyria (Günther's disease): two cases with very early prenatal manifestation and cystic hygroma

Congenital erythropoietic porphyria (CEP) or Günther's disease is the rarest form of the porphyrias. The disease is usually diagnosed at birth or during early infancy, but rarely in utero. We describe here the first two cases of very early prenatal expression of CEP with cystic hygroma diagnosed at 14 weeks in the first fetus and at 19 weeks in the second. Both fetuses presented with severe nonimmune hydrops fetalis as early as 19 and 22 weeks, associated with intrauterine growth retardation, hyperechogenic kidneys and bones. Amniotic fluid was dark brown and uro- and coproporphyrin I was dramatically increased. Molecular screening of the CEP gene detected heterozygous C73R mutation in both fetuses, the other parental mutation being as yet unknown. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Simulation Study on the Efficacy of Advanced Belt Restraints to Mitigate the Effects of Obesity for Rear-Seat Occupant Protection in Frontal Crashes

Objective: Recent field data analyses have shown that the safety advantages of rear seats relative to the front seats have decreased in newer vehicles. Separately, the risks of certain injuries have been found to be higher for obese occupants. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of advanced belt features on the protection of rear-seat occupants with a range of body mass index (BMI) in frontal crashes.

Methods: Whole-body finite element human models with 4 BMI levels (25, 30, 35, and 40 kg/m²) developed previously were used in this study. A total of 52 frontal crash simulations were conducted, including 4 simulations with a standard rear-seat, 3-point belt and 48 simulations with advanced belt features. The parameters varied in the simulations included BMI, load limit, anchor pretensioner, and lap belt routing relative to the pelvis. The injury measurements analyzed in this study included head and hip excursions, normalized chest deflection, and torso angle (defined as the angle between the hip–shoulder line and the vertical direction). Analyses of covariance were used to test the significance (P <.05) of the results.

Results: Higher BMI was associated with greater head and hip excursions and larger normalized chest deflection. Higher belt routing increased the hip excursion and torso angle, which indicates a higher submarining risk, whereas the anchor pretensioner reduced hip excursion and torso angle. Lower load limits decreased the normalized chest deflection but increased the head excursion. Normalized chest deflection had a positive correlation with maximum torso angle. Occupants with higher BMI have to use higher load limits to reach head excursions similar to those in lower BMI occupants.

Discussion and Conclusion: The simulation results suggest that optimizing load limiter and adding pretensioner(s) can reduce injury risks associated with obesity, but conflicting effects on head and chest injuries were observed. This study demonstrated the feasibility and importance of using human models to investigate protection for occupants with various BMI levels. A seat belt system capable of adapting to occupant size and body shape will improve protection for obese occupants in rear seats.     

Attitudes towards current and alternative management of the Sundarbans Mangrove Forest,Bangladesh to achieve sustainability

This paper examines the challenges of achieving sustainable management of the world's largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans (SMF) in Bangladesh. During the past two decades, conflicts between mangrove maintenance and the pressure to provide economic livelihoods to forest-dependent communities (FDCs) have emerged and persisted. The SMF is currently managed by the Bangladesh Forest Department (BFD) under a state property rights regime. This study explores an alternative property rights regime which includes participatory approaches and co-management with FDCs to achieve sustainability, both economically and environmentally. Focus group discussions and a survey were the methods used to assess the prospects. The study finds that the absence of a management partnership between the BFD and FDCs is mainly responsible for the policy failures to achieve sustainable management of the SMF. However, evidence is presented that a ‘co-management’ property rights regime cannot be established until FDC capacity is enhanced through the formation of community level institutions.