A computer simulation study of stochastic models to investigate the population dynamics of the screech owl (otus asio) under increased mortality

The work reported in this paper complements an earlier study in which deterministic models were used examine the effects of additional mortality imposed on a Screech Owl, Otus asio, population. Interest lay in the compensatory mechanisms that the owls might be able to adopt in their population dynamics to counteract the overall effect of the additional mortality imposed, in particular when only a part of the population is affected. Stochastic models are used here to address the same questions, and to give more detailed information about the likely behaviour of the owl population than the information an average sizes provided by the deterministic approach.     

A Model of the Thermal Bar in the Rotating Frame Including Vertically Non-Uniform Heating

Small bottom slope, inviscid solutions are found for a model of the temperature and circulation structure of the thermal bar system. This model includes Coriolis effects, a vertically non-uniform heat input and is axisymmetric. The model also includes general topography and time dependent heating. These solutions include inertial oscillations that have a significant effect on the circulation, especially for the case when the heating is instantaneously applied.     

Genetic evidence of cryptic speciation within hammerhead sharks (Genus Sphyrna)

Surveys of genetic variation within cosmopolitan marine species often uncover deep divergences, indicating historical separation and potentially cryptic speciation. Based on broad geographic (coastal eastern North America, Gulf of Mexico, western Africa, Australia, and Hawaii) and temporal sampling (1991–2003), mitochondrial (control region [CR] and cytochrome oxidase I [COI]) and nuclear gene (lactate dehydrogenase A intron 6 [LDHA6]) variation among 76 individuals was used to test for cryptic speciation in the scalloped hammerhead, Sphyrna lewini (Griffith and Smith). CR and COI gene trees confirmed previous evidence of divergence between Atlantic and Indo-Pacific scalloped hammerhead populations; populations were reciprocally monophyletic. However, the between-basin divergence recorded in the mtDNA genome was not reflected in nuclear gene phylogenies; alleles for LDHA6 were shared between ocean basins, and Atlantic and Indo-Pacific populations were not reciprocally monophyletic. Unexpectedly, CR, COI, and LDHA6 gene trees recovered a deep phylogenetic partition within the Atlantic samples. For mtDNA haplotypes, which segregated by basin, average genetic distances were higher among Atlantic haplotypes (CR: D _HKY=0.036, COI: D _GTR=0.016) than among Indo-Pacific haplotypes (CR: D _HKY=0.010, COI: D _GTR=0.006) and approximated divergences between basins for CR (D _HKY=0.036 within Atlantic; D _HKY=0.042 between basins). Vertebral counts for eight specimens representing divergent lineages from the western north Atlantic were consistent with the genetic data. Coexistence of discrete lineages in the Atlantic, complete disequilibrium between nuclear and mitochondrial alleles within lineages and concordant partitions in genetic and morphological characters indicates reproductive isolation and thus the occurrence of a cryptic species of scalloped hammerhead in the western north Atlantic. Effective management of large coastal shark species should incorporate this important discovery and the inference from sampling that the cryptic scalloped hammerhead is less abundant than S. lewini, making it potentially more susceptible to fishery pressure.     

Quantifying the Impact of Corporate Environmental Performance on Shareholder Value

This article demonstrates an approach for analyzing and communicating the financial implications of a company's environmental exposures. In environmentally sensitive industries, this approach can help companies to benchmark themselves against rivals, to identify major sources of environmental risk and opportunity, to assign financial values to risk‐mitigating options, and to communicate their environmental strategies to the investment community and other stake‐holders. © 2000 World Resources Institute. Used with permission.     

Effects of Exploitation and Park Boundaries on Legume Trees in the Sonoran Desert

Abstract: Legume trees have been harvested in the Sonoyta Valley since 1975. We estimated the effects of this woodcutting along the border between Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument (U.S.A.) and Sonora, Mexico. We placed 10 × 100 m transects in ephemeral watercourses and uplands on both sides of the international boundary at different distances from the border. Mesquite and ironwood trees exhibited significantly higher damage in the Mexican sites than in the protected uplands in the United States. Damage for all the species significantly decreased 500 m from the border, with the exception of ironwood, for which damage remained high within ephemeral watercourses.     

‘Short Cut’ Techniques to Incorporate Environmental Considerations into Project Appraisal: An Exploration Using Case Studies

Incorporating environmental and natural resource impacts into the benefit-cost analysis of projects in the developing world now relies on a solid body of theory and recommended techniques, but there remain concerns with how this is done in practice. One aspect arises when time and resource constraints make highly sophisticated analysis difficult or impossible. This paper discusses situations where analyses can be improved using relatively simple ‘short cut’ techniques that substitute for more formal analysis that cannot be undertaken realistically or provide an added perspective on project viability. Case studies are employed to illustrate the techniques, based upon the author's experience with appraisals at the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). It is shown that short cut techniques can dramatically alter the outcome of an appraisal at relatively little cost. However, caution is advised since such techniques can be misused, so that the development of suitable protocols is desirable.     

The Impact of a Change in Collection Frequency on Kerbside Recycling Behaviours

The research monitors the changes in recycling performance indicators arising from halving the collection frequency of a kerbside newspaper collection scheme. The changes in the performance parameters are explained in terms of the underlying behavioural changes that could have occurred within the community. This interpretation is aided by a computer simulation of the kerbside recycling activity of the community. Moving from a 2-week collection to a 4-week collection did not substantially affect the number of households recycling, nor the overall weights collected. A small weight loss, however, may have occurred, from a small minority of households, unable to accommodate the extra storage demand of the new regime. Model predictions were consistent with the observed performance data. It is postulated that the scheme could withstand considerable intervention before significant behavioural changes are induced. It demonstrates that cost-cutting interventions can be undertaken without significantly compromising individual participations. The case-study also highlights the caution needed in the interpretation of the recycling performance indicators themselves.     

A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States

Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies: (1) land use change to increase forest area (afforestation) and avoid deforestation; (2) carbon management in existing forests; and (3) the use of wood as biomass energy, in place of other building materials, or in wood products for carbon storage. We found that many strategies can increase forest sector carbon mitigation above the current 162-256 Tg C/yr, and that many strategies have co-benefits such as biodiversity, water, and economic opportunities. Each strategy also has trade-offs, risks, and uncertainties including possible leakage, permanence, disturbances, and climate change effects. Because approximately 60% of the carbon lost through deforestation and harvesting from 1700 to 1935 has not yet been recovered and because some strategies store carbon in forest products or use biomass energy, the biological potential for forest sector carbon mitigation is large. Several studies suggest that using these strategies could offset as much as 10-20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions. To obtain such large offsets in the United States would require a combination of afforesting up to one-third of cropland or pastureland, using the equivalent of about one-half of the gross annual forest growth for biomass energy, or implementing more intensive management to increase forest growth on one-third of forestland. Such large offsets would require substantial trade-offs, such as lower agricultural production and non-carbon ecosystem services from forests. The effectiveness of activities could be diluted by negative leakage effects and increasing disturbance regimes. Because forest carbon loss contributes to increasing climate risk and because climate change may impede regeneration following disturbance, avoiding deforestation and promoting regeneration after disturbance should receive high priority as policy considerations. Policies to encourage programs or projects that influence forest carbon sequestration and offset fossil fuel emissions should also consider major items such as leakage, the cyclical nature of forest growth and regrowth, and the extensive demand for and movement of forest products globally, and other greenhouse gas effects, such as methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and recognize other environmental benefits of forests, such as biodiversity, nutrient management, and watershed protection. Activities that contribute to helping forests adapt to the effects of climate change, and which also complement forest carbon storage strategies, would be prudent.