全球粮食生产的预测问题

本文讨论了全球粮食生产体系能力预测模型的研发问题，文章特别对影响粮食生产的各种因素进行了鉴定和分析，并且对它们的相对影响和可预测性进行了估计。     

Composition of Floating Debris in Harbours of the United States

As part of a programme to characterize floating anthropogenic debris in the aquatic environment, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducted 18 field surveys in the harbours of major metropolitan cities of the east, west, and Gulf coasts of the United States and the Mid-Atlantic Bight. the surveys were designed to provide information on the types, relative amounts, and distributions of aquatic debris in different geographic regions of the United States. Neuston nets (0.33 mm mesh) were used to collect surface debris during outgoing tides on two or three consecutive days in selected areas of each city. After each net tow, the debris, which ranged in size from small resin pellets to large plastic sheeting pieces, was identified, categorized, and counted. the data are being used to qualitatively characterize aquatic debris in coastal metropolitan areas, to examine potential regional variations, and to tentatively identify potential sources.     

Multicriteria Group Decision-making Model for Environmental Conflict Analysis in the Cape Region,Mexico

This paper is concerned with developing a model for group decision making under multiple criteria. The multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM)problem involves a set of feasible land use patterns that are evaluated on the basis of multiple, conflicting and noncommensurate criteria by a group of individuals. The model integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and an integer mathematical programming method. The former provides a tool for structuring the decision problem and determining land suitability for different socio-economicactivities (the uses of land), the latter is used to identify the land use pattern that maximizes consensus among interest groups. The model is used to analyze environmental conflict over land resource allocation in the Cape Region of Mexico.     

Outcomes of Collaborative Water Policy Making: Applying Complexity Thinking to Evaluation

Collaborative policy making has become increasingly significant in environmental management, but it is often evaluated by whether or not agreement is reached and implemented. The most important outcomes of such policy dialogues are often invisible or undervalued when seen through the lens of a traditional, modernist paradigm of government and accountability. These dialogues represent a new paradigm of governance that can be best understood in the light of a complex adaptive system model of society. From this perspective collaborative policy making is a way of making a system more flexible, adaptive and intelligent. The authors document such outcomes in three cases of water policy making in California, including the San Francisco Estuary Project, the CALFED Bay-Delta Program and the Sacramento Area Water Forum. The outcomes include social and political capital, agreed-on information, the end of stalemates, high-quality agreements, learning and change, innovation and new practices involving networks and flexibility.     

GHG Mitigation Potential and Cost in Tropical Forestry - Relative Role for Agroforestry

This paper summarizes studies of carbon mitigation potential (MP) and costs of forestry options in seven developing countries with a focus on the role of agroforestry. A common methodological approach known as comprehensive mitigation assessment process (COMAP) was used in each study to estimate the potential and costs between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios derived from the demand for forest products and forestland for other uses such as agriculture and pasture. By using data on estimated carbon sequestration, emission avoidance, costs and benefits, the model enables one to estimate cost effectiveness indicators based on monetary benefit per t C, as well as estimates of total mitigation costs and potential when the activities are implemented at equilibrium level. The results show that about half the MP of 6.9 Gt C (an average of 223 Mt C per year) between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries could be achieved at a negative cost, and the other half at costs not exceeding $100 per t C. Negative cost indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of about half of the options. The agroforestry options analyzed bear a significant proportion of the potential at medium to low cost per t C when compared to other options. The role of agroforestry in these countries varied between 6% and 21% of the MP, though the options are much more cost effective than most due to the low wage or opportunity cost of rural labor. Agroforestry options are attractive due to the large number of people and potential area currently engaged in agriculture, but they pose unique challenges for carbon and cost accounting due to the dispersed nature of agricultural activities in the tropics, as well as specific difficulties arising from requirements for monitoring, verification, leakage assessment and the establishment of credible baselines.