A Method for Ensemble Wildland Fire Simulation

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis is used to characterize the seasonal trend in ERC, autocorrelation of residuals, and daily standard deviation and stochastically generate artificial time series of afternoon fuel moisture. Daily wind speed and direction are sampled stochastically from joint probabilities of historical wind speed and direction for the date range of the fire simulation period. Hundreds or thousands of fire growth simulations are then performed using the synthetic fire weather sequences. The performance of these methods is evaluated in terms of the number of ensemble member simulations, one- versus two-dimensional fire spread simulations, and comparison with results from 91 fires occurring from 2007 to 2009. Simulations were found to be in consistent agreement with observations, but trends indicate that the ensemble average of simulated fire sizes were consistently larger than actual fires whereas the farthest extent burned by fires was underestimated.     

The fate of steroid estrogens: partitioning during wastewater treatment and onto river sediments

The partitioning of steroid estrogens in wastewater treatment and receiving waters is likely to influence their discharge to, and persistence in, the environment. This study investigated the partitioning behaviour of steroid estrogens in both laboratory and field studies. Partitioning onto activated sludge from laboratory-scale Husmann units was rapid with equilibrium achieved after 1 h. Sorption isotherms and Kd values decreased in the order 17??-ethinyl estradiol > 17??-estradiol > estrone > estriol without a sorption limit being achieved (1/n?>1). Samples from a wastewater treatment works indicated no accumulation of steroid estrogens in solids from primary or secondary biological treatment, however, a range of steroid estrogens were identified in sediment samples from the River Thames. This would indicate that partitioning in the environment may play a role in the long-term fate of estrogens, with an indication that they will be recalcitrant in anaerobic conditions.     

Fractionation of traffic-emitted Ce, La and Zr in road dusts

The introduction of catalytic converters has led to a new environmental problem since catalysts emit platinum group elements (PGEs) which are among the least distributed elements in nature. Along with PGEs the vehicle exhaust catalysts contain also a number of stabilizers, commonly oxides of rare earth elements and alkaline earth elements such as Ce, La and Zr. Since vehicular emission of these elements has received little attention so far this work attempts to offer insight into their distribution and fate in the environment by measuring their speciation in road dust samples collected along several highways in Germany and a city centre (Saarbrücken). Speciation of the elements (fractionation into associated mineralogical phases) was carried out via a conventional sequential extraction protocol and the complexing abilities of humic substances in the organic matter were investigated by selective extraction methods in combination with size segregation. For evaluation purposes soil samples spiked with catalytic converter material were analyzed, showing a much lower fraction of Ce, La and Zr mobilized in comparison to the road dust samples. It was found that the elements were effectively bound to humic substances in road dust with a preference for complexation with low molecular weight compounds (<1600 Da).     

Advanced REACH Tool (ART): calibration of the mechanistic model

The mechanistic model of the Advanced Reach Tool (ART) provides a relative ranking of exposure levels from different scenarios. The objectives of the calibration described in this paper are threefold: to study whether the mechanistic model scores are accurately ranked in relation to exposure measurements; to enable the mechanistic model to estimate actual exposure levels rather than relative scores; and to provide a method of quantifying model uncertainty. Stringent data quality guidelines were applied to the collated data. Linear mixed effects models were used to evaluate the association between relative ART model scores and measurements. A random scenario and company component of variance were introduced to reflect the model uncertainty. Stratified analyses were conducted for different forms of exposure (abrasive dust, dust, vapours and mists). In total more than 2000 good quality measurements were available for the calibration of the mechanistic model. The calibration showed that after calibration the mechanistic model of ART was able to estimate geometric mean (GM) exposure levels with 90% confidence for a given scenario to lie within a factor between two and six of the measured GM depending upon the form of exposure.     

Multiple kinetic Langmuir modeling to predict the environmental behaviour of As(v) in soils

A soil with a relatively high Fe content (2.82% [w/w]) was loaded for up to one year with As(v) by equilibrating it with a solution containing 1000 mg l(-1) As(v) at a soil mass-to-solution ratio of 0.1 kg l(-1). The incorporation of As(v) into the soil and its distribution over the soil phases were monitored by sampling at strategic time intervals using an operationally defined five-step sequential extraction procedure (Wenzel et al., Anal. Chim. Acta, 2001, 436, 309) and subsequent As measurement. A multiple kinetic Langmuir model was developed to retrieve the dynamic parameters (adsorption and desorption rate constants, capacities and Langmuir equilibrium constants) for each of the soil phases by numerical fitting of the experimental adsorption data to the model. Under the equilibration conditions used the adsorption rate constants for all five operationally defined soil phases were very similar but the desorption rate constants decreased by a factor of ca. 150 from soil phase 1 (non-specifically sorbed As) to 5 (residual phases). This implies that As(v) incorporation "deeper" into the soil leads to stronger binding which is associated with the Langmuir equilibrium constants (adsorption rate constants/desorption rate constants). Equilibration of the soil with As(v) was complete in ca. 10 days with As(v) predominantly bound to soil phase 2 (specifically sorbed As) and soil phase 3 (amorphous and poorly crystalline hydrous oxides). X-Ray absorption spectroscopy techniques revealed that these binding characteristics may be related to adsorption of As(v) on Si- and/or Al-containing structures and natural hydrous iron oxide (HFO) surface sites, respectively. Since the model is independent of the initial As(v) concentration in the solution and the soil mass-to-solution ratio, the behaviour of the thus characterized soil-As(v) system can be predicted for a range of conditions. Simulations showed that in an accidental As(v) spill the soil studied would actively scavenge As(v) by instantaneous adsorption onto all soil phases followed by redistribution of As(v) from weaker binding sites to stronger ones over time.     

Water and sediment quality of dry season pools in a dryland river system: the upper Leichhardt River, Queensland, Australia

This article presents the geochemical characteristics and physicochemical properties of water and sediment from twelve semi-permanent, dryland pools in the upper Leichhardt River catchment, north-west Queensland, Australia. The pools were examined to better understand the quality of sediments and temporary waters in a dryland system with a well-established metal contamination problem. Water and sediment sampling was conducted at the beginning of the hydroperiod in May and September 2007. Water samples were analyzed for major solute compositions (Ca, Na, K, Mg, Cl, SO(4), HCO(3)) and water-soluble (operationally defined as the <0.45 μm fraction) metals (Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn). Sediment samples were analyzed for total extractable and bioaccessible metals (As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn), elemental composition and grain morphology. At the time of sampling a number of pools contained water and sediment with elevated concentrations, compared to Australian regulatory guidelines, of Cu (maximum: water 28 μg L(-1); sediment 770 mg kg(-1)), Pb (maximum: water 3.4 μg L(-1); sediment 630 mg kg(-1)) and Zn (maximum: water 150 μg L(-1); sediment 780 mg kg(-1)). Concentrations of Cd and As in pools were relatively low and generally within Australian regulatory guideline values. Localized factors, such as the interaction of waters with anthropogenic contaminants from modern and historic mine wastes (i.e. residual smelter and slag materials), exert influence on the quality of pool waters. Although the pools of the upper Leichhardt River catchment are contaminated, they do not appear to be the primary repository of water and sediment associated metals when compared to materials in the remainder channel and floodplain. Nevertheless, a precautionary approach should be adopted to mitigating human exposure to contaminated environments, which might include the installation of appropriate warning signs by local health and environmental authorities.     

Non-invasive measurement of carbon monoxide burden in Guatemalan children and adults following wood-fired temazcal (sauna-bath) use

The use of wood-fired steam baths, or temazcales, is a potentially dangerous source of CO exposure in Guatemalan Highland communities where adults and children use them regularly for bathing, relaxation, and healing purposes. Physical characteristics of children predispose them to absorb CO faster than adults, placing them at greater exposure and health risks. Efforts to quantify temazcal exposures across all age groups, however, have been hampered by the limitations in exposure measurement methods. In this pilot study we measured COHb levels in children and adults following use of the temazcal using three field-based, non-invasive CO measurement methods: CO-oximetry, exhaled breath, and by estimation of COHb using micro-environmental concentrations and time diaries. We then performed a brief comparison of methods. Average CO concentrations measured during temazcal use were 661 ± 503 ppm, approximately 10 times the 15 min WHO guideline. Average COHb levels for all participants ranged from 12-14% (max of 30%, min 2%), depending on the method. COHb levels measured in children were not significantly different from adults despite the fact that they spent 66% less time exposed. COHb measured by CO-oximetry and exhaled breath had good agreement, but precision of the former was affected substantially by random instrument error. The version of the field CO-oximeter device used in this pilot could be useful in screening for acute CO exposure events in children but may lack the precision for monitoring the burden from less extreme, but more day-to-day CO exposures (e.g. indoor solid fuel use). In urban settings, health effects in children and adults have been associated with chronic exposure to ambient CO concentrations much lower than measured in this study. Future research should focus on reducing exposure from temazcales through culturally appropriate modifications to their design and practices, and targeted efforts to educate communities on the health risks they pose and actions they can take to reduce this risk.     

Obstetrical outcomes following amniocentesis performed after 24 weeks of gestation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

To evaluate obstetrical outcomes for women having late amniocentesis (on or after 24 weeks). Electronic databases were searched from inception to January 1st, 2023. The obstetrical outcomes evaluated were gestational age at delivery, preterm birth (PTB) < 37 weeks, PTB within 1 week from amniocentesis, premature prelabor rupture of membranes (pPROM), chorionamnionitis, placental abruption, intrauterine fetal demise (IUFD) and termination of pregnancy (TOP). The incidence of PTB <37 weeks was 4.85% (95% CI 3.48–6.56), while the incidence of PTB within 1 week was 1.42% (95% CI 0.66–2.45). The rate of pPROM was 2.85% (95% CI 1.21–3.32). The incidence of placental abruption was 0.91% (95% CI 0.16–2.25), while the rate of IUFD was 3.66% (95% CI 0.00–14.04). The rate of women who underwent TOP was 6.37% (95%CI 1.05–15.72). When comparing amniocentesis performed before or after 32 weeks, the incidence of PTB within 1 week was 1.48% (95% CI 0.42–3.19) and 2.38% (95% CI 0.40–5.95). Amniocentesis performed late after 24 weeks of gestation is an acceptable option for patients needing prenatal diagnosis in later gestation.