Spatio-temporal patterns in county-level incidence and reporting of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States, 1990–2000

We present an exploratory analysis of reported county-specific incidence of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States for the years 1990–2000. We briefly review the disease ecology of Lyme disease and the use of risk maps to describe local incidence as estimates of local risk of disease. We place the relevant elements of local environmental and ecological variables, local disease incidence, and (importantly) local disease reporting in a conceptual context to frame our analysis. We then apply hierarchical linear models of increasing complexity to summarize observed patterns in reported incidence, borrowing information across counties to improve local precision. We find areas of increasing incidence in the central northeastern Atlantic coast counties, increasing incidence branching to the north and west, and an area of fairly stable and slightly decreasing reported incidence in western New York.     

Inferring Threat from Scientific Collections

Exact formulas for the probability of extinction or change in the conservation status of species are described for data based on frequency of sighting. These formulas generalize an expression previously described for the probability of extinction from (binary) sighting data. The formulas will be used in contexts where sightings are recorded as frequencies, such as when observations are aggregated in time. We argue that computing the probability of extinction or change in conservation status will be most useful for setting conservation priorities and in screening large data sets contained in museum and herbarium collections and in biological resource inventories.     

Chemistry and adsorption-desorption properties of manganese oxides deposited in Forehill Water Treatment Plant,Grampian, Scotland

Manganese oxide coatings on sand particles within filtration beds from a water treatment plant in Grampian, Scotland were examined to determine their control on metal mobility. This study first sought to characterise the oxides, notably their mineralogy and metal content, to provide a foundation for studies on the adsorption of dissolved metals from the treated water by the oxides. The oxides were examined by X-ray powder diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and analysed by flame atomic absorption spectrophotometry (AAS). These techniques showed the oxide coatings were amorphous but uniformly distributed over each sand grain. The oxides were selectively removed from the sand grains prior to analysis by AAS using a hydroxylamine hydrochloride selective leaching method. The compositional range of the extracts was 100–150 mg L⁻¹ Mn; 30–55 mg L⁻¹ Fe; 17–56 mg L⁻¹ Ca; 4.6–7.0 mg L⁻¹ Ni; 4.6–6.8 mg L⁻¹ Zn and 1.3–5.7 mg L⁻¹ Mg. When these results are expressed as mg of metal per mg of Mn, the metal content of the oxides is remarkably uniform: 0.25–0.37 mg Fe; 0.14–0.35 mg Ca; 0.035–0.042 mg Ni; 0.035–0.040 mg Zn; 0.01–0.04 mg Mg. The greatest metal concentrations were consistently found in the upper 3 cm of the filtration bed, and these decrease with increasing depth. After the beds are cleaned a more uniform distribution of metals occurs throughout the bed. The metals taken up by the manganese coating are retained over a wide pH range with the exception of Ca and Mg which desorb to a significant extent. The percentage of calcium and magnesium lost from the coating ranges from 30–94%, the amount being dependent on the final pH of the solution. The presence of manganese oxide in the filtration beds appears to be advantageous in terms of removal of transition metals from the treated water.     

Nitrogen accumulation and plant species replacement in three salt marsh systems in the Wadden Sea

Salt marsh development on the coastal barrier island of Schiermonnikoog (The Netherlands) was compared with two other salt marsh systems in the Wadden Sea. Accretion rate, nitrogen accumulation and changes in plant species composition were investigated using chronosequences. The age of the marsh was estimated from aerial photographs and old maps. In 7230 plots, the elevation of the marsh surface, the thickness of the sediment layer (clay) and the presence of plant species was recorded. In addition, the nitrogen pool was measured at each successional stage. Accretion rates were similar in the three salt marshes. Higher accretion rates were found at younger marshes. A strong linear relationship between nitrogen pool size and thickness of the clay layer was found for the three marshes. The accumulation rate of nitrogen is therefore strongly related to the accretion rate. Thus, more nitrogen is present in the sediment of later successional stages where more clay has accumulated. On the high salt marsh (55 cm+MHT),Ameria maritima disappeared andArtemisia maritima, Juncus gerardi andElymus athericus established at sites with a thicker clay layer. On the low salt marsh (25 cm+MHT),Plantago maritima, Puccinellia maritima andLimonium vulgare disappeared andAtriplex (Halimione) portulacoides established. Apparently, with the accumulation of clay and therefore of nitrogen, tall growing species take over in salt marshes not grazed by livestock.     

Sexual selection and spring arrival times of red-necked and Wilson's phalaropes

Summary Seasonal changes in sex ratios during a 4-year study of red-necked phalaropes and a 3-year study of Wilson's phalaropes showed that females preceded males to breeding and/or courtship areas. The degree to which females preceded males may have been constrained by harsh weather, as the arrival of red-necked phalaropes was synchronous in 1983, when spring was unusually late. Neither sex defended territories; females competed vigorously for direct access to males. These findings show that selection for sexually asynchronous arrival need not act through territoriality. We interpret early female arrival as an adaptation for obtaining mates and coclude that sexual selection may be an important determinant of arrival times in mate defense social systems.     

Super-individuals a simple solution for modelling large populations on an individual basis

Modelling populations on an individual-by-individual basis has proven to be a fruitful approach. Many complex patterns that are observed on the population level have been shown to arise from simple interactions between individuals. However, a major problem with these models is that the typically large number of individuals needed requires impractically large computation times. The common solution, reduction of the number of individuals in the model, can lead to loss of variation, irregular dynamics, and large sensitivity to the value of random generator seeds. As a solution to these problems, we propose to add an extra variable feature to each model individual, namely the number of real individuals it actually represents. This approach allows zooming from a real individual-by-individual model to a cohort representation or ultimately an all-animals-are-equal view without changing the model formulation. Therefore, the super-individual concept offers easy possibilities to check whether the observed behaviour is an artifact of following a limited number of individuals or of lumping individuals, and also to verify whether individual variability is indeed an essential ingredient for the observed behaviour. In addition the approach offers arbitrarily large computational advantages. As an example the super-individual approach is applied to a generic model of the dynamics of a size-distributed consumer cohort as well as to an elaborate applied simulation model of the recruitment of striped bass.     

Finding all optimal solutions to the reserve site selection problem: formulation and computational analysis

The problem of selecting nature reserves has received increased attention in the literature during the past decade, and a variety of approaches have been promoted for selecting those sites to include in a reserve network. One set of techniques employs heuristic algorithms and thus provides possibly sub-optimal solutions. Another set of models and accompanying algorithms uses an integer programming formulation of the problem, resulting in an optimization problem known as the Maximal Covering Problem, or MCP. Solution of the MCP provides an optimal solution to the reserve site selection problem, and while various algorithms can be employed for solving the MCP they all suffer from the disadvantage of providing a single optimal solution dictating the selection of areas for conservation. In order to provide complete information to decision makers, the determination of all alternate optimal solutions is necessary. This paper explores two procedures for finding all such solutions. We describe the formulation and motivation of each method. A computational analysis on a data set describing native terrestrial vertebrates in the state of Oregon illustrates the effectiveness of each approach.     

Sabaki River sediment load and coral stress: correlation between sediments and condition of the Malindi-Watamu reefs in Kenya (Indian Ocean)

Sediment discharges from rivers have a negative impact on coral reef ecosystems. Indicators of coral decline measured in the present study were: (1) injury to living stony corals; (2) soft coral cover; and (3) bare rocky substrate suitable for colonization by corals. The relationship between these indicators and the distribution of terrigenous sediment was studied for the Malindi-Watamu fringing reef complex along the Kenyan coast off East Africa during 1982 and 1983. Decline of this reef had been repeatedly noted during the preceding decade. The influence of terrigenous sediment from the Sabaki River appears to be strongest in the Watamu area in the south and in the northern-most part of the Malindi reef area. Correlations, between each of the above three coral stress response indicators, on the one hand, and quantitative indicators of sediment loading, on the other hand, were not clear. However, a combined coral stress indicator involving all three factors was shown to have a clear relationship with terrigenous sediment loading and provided a rapid means of field evaluation of the effects of sediment stress on stony corals. Values for the combined coral stress indicator were found to increase in proportion to increasing values of terrigenous sediment loads in both study areas. A higher coral stress indicator value means a high proportion of injured or algae infested corals, and/or a high soft coral cover, and/or a high proportion of rocky substrate suitable for, but unoccupied by, living corals.     

Cell-cell recognition system in gorgonians: description of the basic mechanism

A comparative investigation of the chemical composition of Thalassiosira antarctica var. antarctica vegetative and resting stages revealed C:N and C:chl a ratios to be lower in vegetative cells. These trends primarily reflect vegetative levels of C/cell below, and N/cell and chl a/cell levels above those of spores. There was a change in chemical composition with the initial formation of resting spores, and spores continued to modify their composition while maintained in a cyclic light/dark regime for about one and one half weeks. Most notable was a net increase in carbon and chlorophyll a per cell. Spores then subjected to darkness for over one week appeared to retain most of the carbon and chlorophyll a previously synthesized. These findings support the idea that resting spores enhance the survival capabilities of a species under adverse conditions.     

The selenium status of sheep in Britain as indicated by wool selenium concentration

A correlation between the selenium concentration in wool and blood erythrocyte glutathione peroxidase activity (GSHPx) from sheep in W. Derbyshire, a high selenium area and N. Wales and Romney Marsh, low/marginal selenium areas is reported.Soil and herbage selenium concentrations were significantly correlated with wool selenium levels and GSHPx activity.A significant difference was found between wool selenium concentrations and between GSHPx activities from sheep in W. Derbyshire and those animals sampled in N. Wales and Romney Marsh. 90% of wool samples from the low/marginal areas gave concentrations below 0.125 g Se/g. 6.125 g Se/g wool is suggested as a threshold value for selenium in wool from sheep grazing low/marginal areas.Seasonal peaks in wool selenium concentrations and GSHPx activities are found in March and June respectively. Supplementary feeds, which contain added selenium, given to livestock during the winter season may be responsible for these seasonal differences.GSHPx activity data reported in this study records higher sheep selenium levels than those reported in the 1979 survey by Andersonet al. This increase is attributed to the addition since 1979 of selenium to feeds and drenches.Wool is proposed as an accurate and less costly measure of sheep selenium status.