Comparing computing formulas for estimating concentration ratios

The purpose of this paper is to provide guidance on the choice of computing formulas (estimators) for estimating average concentration ratios and other ratio-type measures of radionuclides and other environmental contaminant transfers between ecosystem components. Mathematical expressions for the expected value of three commonly used estimators (arithmetic mean of ratios, geometric mean of ratios, and the ratio of means) are obtained when the multivariate lognormal distribution is assumed. These expressions are used to explain why these estimators will not in general give the same estimate of the average concentration ratio. They illustrate that the magnitude of the discrepancies depends on the magnitude of measurement biases, and on the variance and correlations associated with spatial heterogeneity and measurement errors. This paper also reports on a computer simulation study that compares the accuracy of eight computing formulas for estimating a ratio relationship that is constant over time and/or space. Statistical models appropriate for both controlled spiking experiments and observational field studies for either normal or lognormal distributions are considered. Our results indicate that for either type of study the geometric mean is generally preferred if the lognormal distribution applies. However, the geometric mean has the disadvantage that its expected value depends on n, the number of measurements taken. Ricker's estimator, $\text{R}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{rt}}$, appears to perform worse than the other estimators studied when the observations are lognormal. All eight estimators appear to be equally accurate for the controlled spiking study when data are normally distributed. For observational field studies when data are normally distributed the ratio of means or slight modifications thereof are preferred to other estimators investigated. Before one chooses a computing formula for estimating a concentration ratio, thought should be given to what target value needs to be estimated to satisfy study objectives, and to whether the normal or lognormal distribution is a more realistic model. The geometric mean performs well for lognormal distributions, but comparison of geometric means or of a geometric mean with environmental limits can be misleading if n is small. The arithmetic mean of ratios is a conservative choice in that it will always give a larger estimate than will the geometric mean. It may also be severely biased when data are lognormal and the variances of measurement errors are large. The ratio of the means is a reasonable choice if the distribution is normal. The median of the observed ratios, $\text{R}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>md</mtext>}}$, is useful estimate since it is easily obtained and has an easily understood interpretation as the point above which and below which 50% of the observed ratios lie. Also, it is appropriate no matter what the distribution of the observed ratios may be. Confidence limits on the median are also easily obtained. Finally, while this paper emphasizes applications in radionuclide research, our results should be applicable to a wide range of environmental contaminants since many contaminants have approximately lognormal distributions.     

Adopting and applying eco-design techniques: a practitioners perspective

This paper discusses the findings of a small scale research project which explored the possibility of adopting eco-design techniques. The paper focuses on identifying how eco-design techniques can be determined as being compatible with new product development processes. Via the development of a five stage ‘applicability framework’, this study demonstrates how a compatible suite of tools can be identified for application to product development processes. Testing and validation of this ‘applicability framework’, which was used to identify three key eco-design techniques; namely checklists, guidelines, and a material, energy and toxicity (MET) matrix, is shown to have taken place in relation to the development of a lightweight chemical detector product. It is established that checklists, guidelines and the MET matrix can be used both on a specific product, and also more generally in the design process. In particular, the MET matrix is shown as being used to successfully identify key environmental aspects of the product during its lifetime. The paper concludes by arguing that eco-design techniques may not have been more widely adopted by businesses because such methods are not necessarily generic and immediately applicable, but instead require some form of process-specific customisation prior to use, which can in turn act as a barrier to adoption. It is also highlighted that the shear diversity of pressures that come to bear during the product development process can also act as a barrier to adoption, and that the full integration of eco-design techniques will have to encompass approaches which overcome such pressures.     

Older Adults at Increased Risk as Pedestrians in Victoria,Australia: An Examination of Crash Characteristics and Injury Outcomes

Objectives: Engaging in active transport modes (especially walking) is a healthy and environmentally friendly alternative to driving and may be particularly beneficial for older adults. However, older adults are a vulnerable group: they are at higher risk of injury compared with younger adults, mainly due to frailty and may be at increased risk of collision due to the effects of age on sensory, cognitive, and motor abilities. Moreover, our population is aging, and there is a trend for the current cohort of older adults to maintain mobility later in life compared with previous cohorts. Though these trends have serious implications for transport policy and safety, little is known about the contributing factors and injury outcomes of pedestrian collision. Further, previous research generally considers the older population as a homogeneous group and rarely considers the increased risks associated with continued ageing.

Method: Collision characteristics and injury outcomes for 2 subgroups of older pedestrians (65–74 years and 75+ years) were examined by extracting data from the state police–reported crash dataset and hospital admission/emergency department presentation data over the 10-year period between 2003 and 2012. Variables identified for analysis included pedestrian characteristics (age, gender, activity, etc.), crash location and type, injury characteristics and severity, and duration of hospital stay. A spatial analysis of crash locations was also undertaken to identify collision clusters and the contribution of environmental features on collision and injury risk.

Results: Adults over 65 years were involved in 21% of all pedestrian collisions. A high fatality rate was found among older adults, particularly for those aged 75 years and older: this group had 3.2 deaths per 100,000 population, compared to a rate of 1.3 for 65- to 74-year-olds and 0.7 for adults below 65 years of age. Older pedestrian injuries were most likely to occur while crossing the carriageway; they were also more likely to be injured in parking lots, at driveway intersections, and on sidewalks compared to younger cohorts. Spatial analyses revealed older pedestrian crash clusters on arterial roads in urban shopping precincts. Significantly higher rates of hospital admissions were found for pedestrians over the age of 75 years and for abdominal, head, and neck injuries; conversely, older adults were underrepresented in emergency department presentations (mainly lower and upper extremity injuries), suggesting an increased severity associated with older pedestrian injuries. Average length of hospital stay also increased with increasing age.

Conclusion: This analysis revealed age differences in collision risk and injury outcomes among older adults and that aggregate analysis of older pedestrians can distort the significance of risk factors associated with older pedestrian injuries. These findings have implications that extend to the development of engineering, behavioral, and enforcement countermeasures to address the problems faced by the oldest pedestrians and reduce collision risk and improve injury outcomes.