Estimating species richness and accumulation by modeling species occurrence and detectability

A statistical model is developed for estimating species richness and accumulation by formulating these community-level attributes as functions of model-based estimators of species occurrence while accounting for imperfect detection of individual species. The model requires a sampling protocol wherein repeated observations are made at a collection of sample locations selected to be representative of the community. This temporal replication provides the data needed to resolve the ambiguity between species absence and nondetection when species are unobserved at sample locations. Estimates of species richness and accumulation are computed for two communities, an avian community and a butterfly community. Our model-based estimates suggest that detection failures in many bird species were attributed to low rates of occurrence, as opposed to simply low rates of detection. We estimate that the avian community contains a substantial number of uncommon species and that species richness greatly exceeds the number of species actually observed in the sample. In fact, predictions of species accumulation suggest that even doubling the number of sample locations would not have revealed all of the species in the community. In contrast, our analysis of the butterfly community suggests that many species are relatively common and that the estimated richness of species in the community is nearly equal to the number of species actually detected in the sample. Our predictions of species accumulation suggest that the number of sample locations actually used in the butterfly survey could have been cut in half and the asymptotic richness of species still would have been attained. Our approach of developing occurrence-based summaries of communities while allowing for imperfect detection of species is broadly applicable and should prove useful in the design and analysis of surveys of biodiversity.     

Tributyltin partitioning in sediments: effect of aging

The effect of aging on the solid/pore-water partitioning and desorption behaviour of tributyltin (TBT) in sediments was examined. Three sediment samples with contrasting physical and chemical properties were spiked with 10 mg/kg TBT and aged under sterile conditions for periods of time ranging from 1 to 84 days. Aging had a negligible effect on partitioning and desorption behaviour in a sandy sample with very low organic carbon content (0.2% w/w). In contrast, for samples with larger amounts of organic carbon (2.6% and 4.8% w/w), aging caused substantial increases in TBT sorption. For these samples, apparent distribution coefficients (KD,app) obtained from sequential 2 h desorption experiments also exhibited a twofold increase between spiked sediments subjected to aging for 1 day and 84 days. This study demonstrates that aging effects may be an important aspect of TBT fate in contaminated sediments.     

Real-world vehicle emissions: A summary of the 15th coordinating research council on-road vehicle emissions workshop

The Coordinating Research Council held its 15th workshop in April 2005, with nearly 90 presentations describing the most recent mobile source-related emissions research. In this paper, the authors summarize the presentations from researchers who are engaged in improving our understanding of the contribution of mobile sources to air quality. Participants in the workshop discussed emission models and emission inventories, results from gas- and particle-phase emissions studies from spark-ignition and diesel-powered vehicles (with an emphasis in this workshop on particle emissions), effects of fuels on emissions, evaluation of in-use emissions control programs, and efforts to improve our capabilities in performing on-board emissions measurements, as well as topics for future research.     

Learning from incidents – A method for assessing the effectiveness of the learning cycle

This paper describes a method for assessing the effectiveness in the steps of the learning cycle: the 1st loop with reporting – analysis – decision – implementation – follow-up, and the 2nd loop on an aggregated basis. For each step, the dimensions considered the most relevant for the learning process (scope, quality, timing and information distribution) and for each dimension the most relevant aspects (e.g. completeness and detail) were defined. A method for a semi-quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of the learning cycle was developed using these dimensions and aspects and scales for rating. The method will give clear indications of areas for improvement when applied. The results of the method can also be used for correlation with other safety parameters, e.g. results from safety audits and safety climate inquiries. The method is intended to be used on a sample of the broad range of incidents normally seen in process industry companies. The method was tested on a two-year incident reporting material from six companies from various types of process industries. It was found that the method and the tools worked very well in practice. The results gave interesting insights into the effectiveness of learning from the incidents.     

Dynamics in the global protected-area estate since 2004

Nations of the world have committed to a number of goals and targets to address global environmental challenges. Protected areas have for centuries been a key strategy in conservation and play a major role in addressing current challenges. The most important tool used to track progress on protected-area commitments is the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). Periodic assessments of the world's protected-area estate show steady growth over the last 2 decades. However, the current method, which uses the latest version of the WDPA, does not show the true dynamic nature of protected areas over time and does not provide information on sites removed from the WDPA. In reality, this method can only show growth or remain stable. We used GIS tools in an approach to assess protected-area change over time based on 12 temporally distinct versions of the WDPA that quantify area added and removed from the WDPA annually from 2004 to 2016. Both the narrative of continual growth of protected area and the counter-narrative of protected area removal were overly simplistic. The former because growth was almost entirely in the marine realm and the latter because some areas removed were reprotected in later years. On average 2.5 million km² was added to the WDPA annually and 1.1 million km² was removed. Reasons for the inclusion and removal of protected areas in the WDPA database were in part due to data-quality issues but also to on-the-ground changes. To meet the 17% protected-area component of Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 by 2020, which stood at 14.7% in 2016, either the rate of protected-area removal must decrease or the rate of protected-area designation and addition to the WDPA must increase.     

Can pride be a vice and virtue at work? Associations between authentic and hubristic pride and leadership behaviors

Pride, a discrete emotion that drives the pursuits of achievement and status, is crucial to consider in leadership contexts. Across three studies, we explored how leaders' experiences of authentic and hubristic pride were associated with their leadership behaviors. In Study 1, a field study of leader–follower dyads, leader trait authentic pride was associated with the use of more effective (i.e., consideration and initiating structure) and fewer ineffective (i.e., abusive supervision) leadership behaviors, and hubristic pride was associated with more abusive behaviors. In Study 2, a daily diary study, on days when leaders experienced more authentic pride than usual, they used more effective leadership behaviors than usual, whereas on days when leaders experienced more hubristic pride than typical, they were more likely to engage in abusive supervision than typical. In Study 3, a scenario‐based experiment, leaders who experienced more authentic pride in response to our experimental manipulation were more likely to intend to use effective leadership behaviors. In contrast, those who experienced more hubristic pride were less likely to use these behaviors and more likely to intend to be abusive. Overall, this work highlights the importance of pride for leadership processes and the utility of examining discrete and self‐conscious emotions within organizations.     

Temporal variation in total phosphorus concentrations revealed from a multidecadal monitoring program on Big Platte Lake,Michigan

Effective water quality management depends on enactment of appropriately designed monitoring programs to reveal current and forecasted conditions. Because water quality conditions are influenced by numerous factors, commonly measured attributes such as total phosphorus (TP) can be highly temporally varying. For highly varying processes, monitoring programs should be long-term and periodic quantitative analyses are needed so that temporal trends can be distinguished from stochastic variation, which can yield insights into potential modifications to the program. Using generalized additive mixed modeling, we assessed temporal (yearly and monthly) trends and quantified other sources of variation (daily and subsampling) in TP concentrations from a multidecadal depth-specific monitoring program on Big Platte Lake, Michigan. Yearly TP concentrations decreased from the late 1980s to late 1990s before rebounding through the early 2000s. At depths of 2.29 to 13.72 m, TP concentrations have cycled around stationary points since the early 2000s, while at the surface and depths ≥?18.29 concentrations have continued declining. Summer and fall peaks in TP concentrations were observed at most depths, with the fall peak at deeper depths occurring 1 month earlier than shallower depths. Daily sampling variation (i.e., variation within a given month and year) was greatest at shallowest and deepest depths. Variation in subsamples collected from depth-specific water samples constituted a small fraction of total variation. Based on model results, cost-saving measures to consider for the monitoring program include reducing subsampling of depth-specific concentrations and reducing the number of sampling depths given observed consistencies across the program period.